泰安市粮食耕地人口承载力评价

发布时间：2019-04-10 21:29

【摘要】：土地人口承载力的研究对于经济的发展和政策的制定与改革都有着重要的意义。随着城镇化速度的加快,泰安市的土地及人口发生了显著的变化,粮食问题日益紧张。本文采用土地资源承载力模型计算泰安市耕地人口承载力现状,利用线性回归统计模型,同时结合以温饱型、小康型及富裕型3种粮食消费水平为标准的土地人口承载力计算方法对泰安市2003-2014年的人口承载力进行分析评价,对2015—2020年的耕地人口承载力进行预测分析。泰安市目前耕地人口承载力在2003-2006年超载,后随着生产力水平的提高,未再超载。并且,在温饱型和小康型的粮食消费水平下,粮食人口承载力没有超载,在富裕水平下,泰安市在部分年份超载。
[Abstract]:The research on the carrying capacity of land population is of great significance to the development of economy and the formulation and reform of policies. With the acceleration of urbanization, the land and population of Taian City have changed significantly, and the grain problem is becoming more and more tense. In this paper, the land resource carrying capacity model is used to calculate the current situation of cultivated land population carrying capacity in Taian city, and the linear regression statistical model is used. This paper analyzes and evaluates the population carrying capacity of Taian city from 2003 to 2014, and forecasts and analyzes the population carrying capacity of cultivated land from 2015 to 2020 with three kinds of calculation methods of land population carrying capacity as standard of grain consumption level of Xiaokang type and rich type. The population carrying capacity of cultivated land in Taian city was overloaded in 2003-2006, but no more overloading occurred with the improvement of productivity level. In addition, under the level of grain consumption of subsistence type and Xiaokang type, the carrying capacity of grain population is not overloaded, and under the rich level, Taian City is overloaded in some years.
【作者单位】：山东农业大学资源与环境学院土肥资源高效利用国家工程实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“农田肥料高效利用数据智能采集处理关键技术”(批准号:2015GNC1101010)
【分类号】：C924.2

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