首都经济贸易大学国际经济管理学院

  本文关键词：全球视角下的人口结构变迁与国际资本流动，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

ISEM 学术论坛[四]——Causal Inference on Pricing Power between Firmsand International Capital Flows ISEM Seminar

 ISEM Seminar: “Causal Inference on Pricing Power between Firmsand International Capital Flows”

Speakers: Lai, Pei-Chun (ISEM); Zhu, Chao (SOF)

Time: 2:00pm-3:30pm,21thNovember, 2012

Place:Bona Building, 230

ISEM 学术论坛 [四]

——“廠商間定價能力的追溯和国际资本流动”

主讲人：赖佩君（国际经管学院助理教授），朱超（金融学院副教授）

时间：2012年11月21日（周三）下午2:00-3:30

地点：博纳楼230室

主办方：国际经管学院、經濟学院

Section 1

Causal Discovery of the Pricing Power between Carbonated Soft Drinks Manufacturer and Supermarket

Lai, Pei-Chun

Abstract:Pricing power in a distributional channel has been the subject of much attention in marketing studies. This paper appliesLiNGAM to identify the causal relationship between supermarket’s price, manufacturer’s price, and number of packages that is used to judge which channel member has higher pricing power. The dataset includes the top-ten best-selling carbonated soft drink (CSD) brands with 6-pack, 12-pack, 24-pack, and 2 liters in the United States between 1996 and 1998. The results show that the retailer has stronger pricing power than CSD manufacturers in the majority of cases studied.

Keywords:Pricing Power; Channel Power; Vertical Relationships; Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Models

Section 2

The Global Demographic Structure and the Anatomy of International Capital Flows

Zhu, Chao

Abstract:This paper investigated the relationship between the demographic structure and international capital flows with the panel data of the past 50 years and the projection of the rest of the 21st century of 190 countries. Theoretically, it is supposed that the current account balance is negatively related to the demographic structure proxyed by the dependency ratios. The results of this paper supported the hypothesis. Since the middle of the last century, United States, Europe, Japan, China exported capital in turn. In the 21st century, China, India, Africa will in turn become the main exporter of capital, while the developed countries in Europe and United States will keep importing capital. China will transit to be a capital-importing country around 2030 due to its rapid aging. Given the population structure of the world, the future situation of the international capital flow of the world requires more serious concerns and responses.

Keywords: Demographic Structure, Current Account Balance, International Capital Flows

专题1

碳酸汽水業與超商間定價能力的追溯

赖佩君

关键词：定價能力,渠道权力, 垂直結構研究,線性非高斯无环因果模型

专题2

全球视角下的人口结构变迁与国际资本流动

朱超

摘要：本文选取了世界190个国家过去60年的面板数据及21世纪的预测数据，考察了人口年龄结构和国际资本流动的关系。从全球范围内来看，总体上经常账户余额与人口抚养比的逆向关系得到支持。对应着各国人口结构的阶梯性变动，，全球国际资本流动格局总体上呈现成年国家流向老年或少年国家的局面。从梯队来看，继上世纪中叶以来，第一梯队美国、欧洲，第二梯队日本、中国、东南亚，第三梯队中亚、南亚、西亚、非洲依次向世界输出资本。欧、美、澳、新等国家或地区在21世纪会持续进口资本，中国会在21世纪30年代，东南亚将在50年代开始由资本输出国转向资本输入国。给定世界和中国未来的人口结构变迁，未来世界国际资本流动格局需要更严肃的思考和应对。

关键词：人口结构；经常账户；国际资本流动；预测

主讲人简介

赖佩君，首都经济贸易大学国际经济管理学院助理教授。分别在台湾大学获经济学学士、美国德州农工大学的经济硕士与农经博士学位。曾在美國Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting與Transportation Research Forum’s Annual Meeting等国际学术会议上作過多篇學術報告。

朱超，首都经济贸易大学金融学院副教授，副院长。明尼苏达大学交流学者。曾在《金融研究》、《世界经济》、《中国人口科学》、《China & World Economy》、《经济科学》、《数量经济技术经济研究》、《财经研究》等期刊发表论文多篇。

欢迎广大师生参加。

（日期：2013-11-21 作者： 来源：）

  本文关键词：全球视角下的人口结构变迁与国际资本流动，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。