气候变化对中国人口流动的效应研究

发布时间：2019-08-08 21:04

【摘要】：中国已成为温室气体排放的最大贡献国,近十年来,气候变化所引发的自然灾害越来越严重,从而导致不同收入水平的人们做出差异化的迁移决策,最终可能出现"环境贫困陷阱"。基于此,利用1994年-2009年中国105个城市的面板数据,采用门槛回归的方法,实证分析气候变化对中国人口跨地区流动的影响及其作用机制。结果表明:气温变化与人口流动呈显著正相关关系,但降水量变化对人口流动的影响不显著,即气温高于平均温度1摄氏度,人口迁移率上升0.475个百分点;在收入水平较高的地区,随着气温的升高,人口流动率较高,而在收入较低的贫困地区,人口流动率则较低,因此,气候变化会引发"环境贫困陷阱"。基于以上结论,政府应加大节能减排措施应对气候变暖,以及加大对低收入的贫困地区环境基础设施建设以减轻气候变化对穷人的不利影响,从而避免"环境贫困陷阱"的出现。
[Abstract]:China has become the biggest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. In the past decade, the natural disasters caused by climate change have become more and more serious, which has led people with different income levels to make differentiated migration decisions, and may eventually appear a "environmental poverty trap." Based on this, using the panel data of 105 cities in China from 1994 to 2009, and using the method of threshold regression, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of climate change on the cross-regional movement of population in China and its mechanism. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between air temperature change and population mobility, but the effect of precipitation change on population mobility is not significant, that is, the temperature is 1 degrees Celsius above the average temperature, and the population mobility rate increases by 0.475 percentage points. In the areas with high income level, with the increase of temperature, the population mobility rate is higher, while in the poor areas with lower income, the population mobility rate is lower. Therefore, climate change will lead to the "environmental poverty trap". Based on the above conclusions, the government should increase energy conservation and emission reduction measures to deal with climate warming, and increase the construction of environmental infrastructure in low-income poor areas to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on the poor, so as to avoid the emergence of "environmental poverty trap".
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大招标项目“建构基于生态文明建设的公共财政体制研究”(15ZDB158) 国家自然科学基金面上项目“财政分配的居民收入分配效应测度及矫正机制研究”(71573194)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：P467;C924.2

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