老龄化对人口红利的影响研究——基于供给侧视角
发布时间：2019-08-17 13:24
【摘要】：如何激活二次人口红利,是当前中国经济应对老龄化面临的重要问题。文章从微观层面的人口时间配置和人口收入配置为出发点,从企业生产供给视角构建一个以人口为中心的经济运行体系。理论分析得出,人口老龄化分别基于消费结构、劳动力占比和储蓄倾向三类效应路径影响人口红利。基于中国2000~2014年分省面板数据的实证研究发现:(1)人口老龄化抑制经济增长,对人口红利产生负向影响;(2)人口老龄化对人口红利影响依赖于平均受教育年限、大专以上学历占比、人均资本存量、储蓄投资转化率、城市化率、二三产业占比和人均公共服务支出。据此,文章从激励教育发展、资本积累、城镇化战略、产业转型和政府公共服务有效供给五个方面,提出了降低人口老龄化对人口红利抑制的政策建议。
[Abstract]:How to activate the secondary demographic dividend is an important problem for China's economy to cope with aging. From the micro level of population time allocation and population income allocation as the starting point, this paper constructs a population-centered economic operation system from the perspective of enterprise production and supply. The theoretical analysis shows that the aging of the population is based on the consumption structure, the proportion of labor force and the tendency to save, respectively, which affect the demographic dividend. Based on the provincial panel data of China in 2000 / 2014, it is found that: (1) the aging of the population suppresses economic growth and has a negative impact on the demographic dividend; (2) the impact of population aging on the demographic dividend depends on the average number of years of education, the proportion of college education or above, the per capita capital stock, the conversion rate of savings and investment, the urbanization rate, the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries and per capita expenditure on public services. Based on this, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to reduce the inhibition of population dividend from five aspects: incentive education development, capital accumulation, urbanization strategy, industrial transformation and effective supply of government public services.
【作者单位】： 云南大学发展研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“城市化进程中的‘适度人口’动态测度及路径实现”(12CRK021) 云南省哲学社会科学规划一般项目“基于人口老龄化趋势的云南二次人口红利研究”(YB2016038) 云南省应用基础研究面上项目“考虑空间外溢效应的城市适度人口动态区间及实现策略研究——以滇中城市群为例”(2014FB115)
【分类号】：C92
，
本文编号：2527812
[Abstract]:How to activate the secondary demographic dividend is an important problem for China's economy to cope with aging. From the micro level of population time allocation and population income allocation as the starting point, this paper constructs a population-centered economic operation system from the perspective of enterprise production and supply. The theoretical analysis shows that the aging of the population is based on the consumption structure, the proportion of labor force and the tendency to save, respectively, which affect the demographic dividend. Based on the provincial panel data of China in 2000 / 2014, it is found that: (1) the aging of the population suppresses economic growth and has a negative impact on the demographic dividend; (2) the impact of population aging on the demographic dividend depends on the average number of years of education, the proportion of college education or above, the per capita capital stock, the conversion rate of savings and investment, the urbanization rate, the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries and per capita expenditure on public services. Based on this, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to reduce the inhibition of population dividend from five aspects: incentive education development, capital accumulation, urbanization strategy, industrial transformation and effective supply of government public services.
【作者单位】： 云南大学发展研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“城市化进程中的‘适度人口’动态测度及路径实现”(12CRK021) 云南省哲学社会科学规划一般项目“基于人口老龄化趋势的云南二次人口红利研究”(YB2016038) 云南省应用基础研究面上项目“考虑空间外溢效应的城市适度人口动态区间及实现策略研究——以滇中城市群为例”(2014FB115)
【分类号】：C92
，
本文编号：2527812
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