现代史学方法论视角下的人口循环理论

发布时间：2018-05-24 17:54

  本文选题：新马尔萨斯理论 + 人口循环周期　； 参考：《史学集刊》2012年02期

【摘要】：马尔萨斯理论在史学上被广泛应用。马尔萨斯认为人口的增长导致饥饿和社会危机,随之而来的是人口数量的减少、消费增加,随后人口数量又开始增加。人口数量的稳定波动就是人口循环周期。20世纪30年代俄国经济学家雅什诺夫在史学研究中第一次揭示了马尔萨斯人口循环理论。随后W.阿贝尔和M.波斯坦在欧洲史研究方面运用了该理论。20世纪下半叶人口循环理论得到了深入的研究,尤其受到法国年鉴派史学家布罗代尔等人的重视。随后,J.戈尔斯通的人口结构理论为人口循环理论的发展注入了新的活力。近几年以J.卡姆罗斯、P.图尔钦为代表的学者广泛采用数学模拟方法研究人口循环理论,运用这一方法可将人口循环周期分为增长阶段、紧缩阶段和生态危机阶段。此外,运用人口循环理论取得的研究成果有助于对社会和经济发展做出预测。
[Abstract]:Malthus theory is widely used in history. Malthus believes that population growth leads to hunger and social crisis, followed by a decline in population size, increased consumption, and then the population began to increase. The stable fluctuation of population is the first time that Russian economist Yashnov revealed Malthus's theory of population cycle in the historical research in the 1930s. Then W. Abel and M. The theory of population cycle in the second half of the 20th century has been deeply studied, especially by the French almanac historian Brodell et al. Then J. Goldstone's theory of population structure injected new vitality into the development of population cycle theory. In recent years, J. Camroth. The scholars represented by Turchin widely use mathematical simulation method to study population cycle theory. By using this method, the population cycle can be divided into three stages: growth stage, contraction stage and ecological crisis stage. In addition, the research results obtained by using population cycle theory help to predict social and economic development.
【作者单位】： 俄罗斯科学院乌拉尔分院历史与考古所;吉林大学东北亚研究院;延边大学俄语系;吉林大学;
【分类号】：K091
，

本文编号：1930004