美国关于1959-1961年中国饥荒研究述评
发布时间：2019-01-23 17:25
【摘要】：本文叙述美国学者关于此饥荒的研究,分析不同阶段的研究背景、特点、研究人员、结论。论文重点放在饥荒成因和人口非正常死亡数字两方面。关于饥荒成因,本文作了“天灾”、“人祸”等方面的分类。对于非正常死亡数字和少出生数字,文中介绍不同学科学者运用不同方法计算出的人口数字。本文综合各时期的研究成果,以系统介绍美国学者的研究状况。论文还通过对各个时期发文的比较,对比不同的研究方法,分析其时代背景,阐述各学者的研究成果。 初期的评论主要是时事性的,较少深层次的学术探究。各界普遍认为中国只是发生了粮食短缺问题,而且已经得到解决。受资料信息的限制,20世纪60年代美国学者关于饥荒的研究基本停留在粮食短缺问题层面上,没有更进一步的探讨,这也使得此后相当长的时期,研究没有突破性的进展。 中国实行改革开放以后,原来封闭的资料陆续公开,西方学者开始进行比较系统的研究。人口统计资料公布之后,饥荒成了研究热点。学者研究判定饥荒确实存在,系统地分析饥荒的原因,并对人口损失数字的作了估算。 关于非正常死亡人口数字,学者多以户籍系统为依据,利用人口学方法做了估计。由于估计的前提和统计的年代不同、使用的数据不同,以及说统计方法不同,因而建立在庞大的人口基数上的计算结果相差悬殊。不过也有学者在使用人口统计数据的时候,对数据作了修正。 近些年的学者,在现存资料的基础上,采用西方的理论框架来阐述和分析课题。政治学者除采用抽象的分析工具以外,也更为注重史实;而经济学者引用微观经济学理论,更倾向于寻求较为单一的因果关系。新的研究方法的引入,使得饥荒研究越来越具有实证性。对饥荒成因的判断趋于的单一化,单一性因果解释多于综合分析。
[Abstract]:This paper describes American scholars' research on this famine, analyzes the background, characteristics, researchers and conclusions of different stages. This paper focuses on the causes of famine and the number of abnormal deaths of the population. As to the causes of famine, this paper classifies natural disasters and man-made disasters. For the number of abnormal deaths and the number of fewer births, this paper introduces the population figures calculated by different subjects and scholars using different methods. This paper systematically introduces the research situation of American scholars by synthesizing the research results of each period. Through the comparison of the papers published in different periods, this paper compares different research methods, analyzes the background of the times, and expounds the research results of various scholars. The initial comments are mainly current affairs, less deep-level academic inquiry. It is widely believed that China has only a food shortage problem, and has been resolved. Limited by the data and information, the study of famine by American scholars in the 1960s basically stayed on the level of food shortage, without further discussion, which also made no breakthrough progress in the research for a long time thereafter. After China's reform and opening up, the original closed materials have been open to the public, Western scholars began to carry out more systematic research. After the demographics were published, famine became a hot topic of study. Scholars have studied and determined the existence of famine, systematically analyzed the causes of famine, and estimated the number of population losses. On the number of abnormal deaths, scholars based on the household registration system, using the demographic method to estimate. Because the presupposition of estimation and the age of statistics are different, the data used are different, and the statistical methods are different, so the calculation results based on the large population base are very different. However, some scholars in the use of demographic data, the data have been revised. In recent years, scholars, on the basis of the existing data, use the western theoretical framework to explain and analyze the subject. In addition to using abstract analytical tools, political scholars also pay more attention to historical facts, while economists tend to seek a single causality by referring to microeconomic theory. With the introduction of new research methods, famine research is becoming more and more positive. The judgment of the cause of famine tends to be unitary, and the single causal explanation is more than the comprehensive analysis.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：K27
本文编号：2414046
[Abstract]:This paper describes American scholars' research on this famine, analyzes the background, characteristics, researchers and conclusions of different stages. This paper focuses on the causes of famine and the number of abnormal deaths of the population. As to the causes of famine, this paper classifies natural disasters and man-made disasters. For the number of abnormal deaths and the number of fewer births, this paper introduces the population figures calculated by different subjects and scholars using different methods. This paper systematically introduces the research situation of American scholars by synthesizing the research results of each period. Through the comparison of the papers published in different periods, this paper compares different research methods, analyzes the background of the times, and expounds the research results of various scholars. The initial comments are mainly current affairs, less deep-level academic inquiry. It is widely believed that China has only a food shortage problem, and has been resolved. Limited by the data and information, the study of famine by American scholars in the 1960s basically stayed on the level of food shortage, without further discussion, which also made no breakthrough progress in the research for a long time thereafter. After China's reform and opening up, the original closed materials have been open to the public, Western scholars began to carry out more systematic research. After the demographics were published, famine became a hot topic of study. Scholars have studied and determined the existence of famine, systematically analyzed the causes of famine, and estimated the number of population losses. On the number of abnormal deaths, scholars based on the household registration system, using the demographic method to estimate. Because the presupposition of estimation and the age of statistics are different, the data used are different, and the statistical methods are different, so the calculation results based on the large population base are very different. However, some scholars in the use of demographic data, the data have been revised. In recent years, scholars, on the basis of the existing data, use the western theoretical framework to explain and analyze the subject. In addition to using abstract analytical tools, political scholars also pay more attention to historical facts, while economists tend to seek a single causality by referring to microeconomic theory. With the introduction of new research methods, famine research is becoming more and more positive. The judgment of the cause of famine tends to be unitary, and the single causal explanation is more than the comprehensive analysis.
【学位授予单位】：中共中央党校
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：K27
【引证文献】
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 刘彦文;水利、社会与政治[D];华东师范大学;2012年
，本文编号：2414046
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