基于全球气候变化的灵敏度模型对中国可持续发展的研究
发布时间：2021-10-26 17:08
论文综合了分析了中国1970年至2007年间的27种影响全球气候变化的因素,包括人为因素、经济因素以及因工业、迁徙以及自然因素等变量。实证研究表明所列的各种变量不能仅用碳排放量或其他因素准确的评价。这主要是因为评价常数因不同地区碳排放强度而不同。需要结合经济发展等因素做综合分析。研究采用科学性和逻辑性较强的预测工具-灵敏度模型对中国气候变化进行模拟分析。模拟了中国未来10年环境的可持续变化,并给出了11个模拟变量。积极影响因素GDP增长值变量显示排放量随GDP增长值的增加而增加,但最后呈回落趋势。与Environmental Kuznet Curve （EKC）相矛盾的发现是,人口对排放量的影响在低收入范围内比高收入范围显著。此外在中国,能源效应的微分效应因富裕程度的不同而变化。当CO2的排放量达到峰值时,能源效应对排放量的影响最大。为验证此推论,论文根据中国不同富裕程度分析人口压力对排放量的影响。模型针对不同基线模型体系建立,相互嵌套。经验证,模拟结果与数据吻合性良好,标志着可进一步缩小Akaike Information Criterion （AIC）统计基线模型（-852对-82...
【文章来源】：天津大学天津市 211工程院校 985工程院校 教育部直属院校
【文章页数】：171 页
【学位级别】：博士
【文章目录】：
Abstract
中文摘要
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
1.1 Objectives
1.2 Problem Definition/Statement
1.3 Project Justification
1.4 Area of Contribution
1.5 Research Methodology
1.6 Scope and Limitation
1.7 Work Organization
1.8.Structure of the Report
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
2.2 GreenHouse Gas Emissions
2.3 Global Warming Potentials
2.4 Concern about Climate Variability
2.5 Mitigation and Adaptation
2.5.1 Mitigation
2.5.2 Adaptation
2.5.3 Vulnerability
2.6 Observations and Trend of Climate Change in China
2.6.1 Current GHG Emissions in China
2.7 China’s Efforts and Achievements in Mitigating Climate Change
2.7.1 China’s Basic National Circumstances and Impacts of Climate Change on China
2.7.2 Principles and Objectives of China to Address Climate Change
2.7.3 Policies and Measures to Address Climate Change
2.8 Comparable Trends between the United States and China
2.8.1 China’s Domestic and Transboundary Air Pollution
2.8.2 Growing Economic and Health Costs from Coal Burning
2.9 China in the International Politics of Climate Change
2.9.1 Introduction
2.9.2 China’s Role in International Politics of Climate Change
2.10 China’s Energy Outlook 2007-2010
2.11 China Effort So Far
2.11.1 State of China’s Environment
2.11.2 Environmental Collaboration
2.11.3 Summarizing Chapter Two
CHAPTER THREE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS DRIVING FORCE
3.1.Introduction
3.2.Monitoring and Indicators
3.2.1 Coupling to a DSR-framework
CHAPTER FOUR SENSITIVITY SOFTWARE MECHANISMS AND APPLICATIONS
4.1 Critique on Environmental Kuznet Curve Model
4.2 An Informal Overview of the Sensitivity Model Prof. Vester Application Summary
4.2.1 Menu Mechanism
4.2.2 System Descriptions
4.2.3 The Preliminary System
4.2.4 List of Variables
4.2.5 System Criteria
4.2.6 Impact Matrix
4.2.7 Index of Influence
4.2.8 Systemic Role
4.3 Mathematical basics of the simulation tool in the Sensitivity Model Prof. Vester(?)
4.3.1 Variables and effects
4.3.2 Input factors
4.3.3 Effect factor
4.4 The physics of the Sensitivity Simulation Model
4.4.1 Modified Lotka-Volterra differential equations
4.4.2 One Variable: The Logistic Function
4.4.3 Two variables: General case
4.5 Additional elements of the simulation tools
4.5.1 Static variables
4.5.2 Effects with delay
4.5.3 Steps of the course
CHAPTER FIVE PARTIAL SCENARIOS AND SIMULATION
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The eight basics rules of bio-cybernetics
5.3 Simulation Model Runs
5.4 Analysis, Findings and Evaluation
5.4.1 Empirical Analysis and Application
5.4.2 Regression Results
5.4.3 The Role of Various Variables on Emissions and Others
5.4.4 The Impact of Population Varies with the Levels of Affluence
5.4.5 Brief Summary- The Effect of Population on C02
CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSION, POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
6.1 Conclusions
6.2 Practical/Policy Implication
6.3 Recommendations: Opportunities for a More Proactive Chinese Climate Policy in the Future
6.4 Addressing Climate Change within the Framework of Sustainable Development
6.4.1 Challenges in China’s sustainable development strategy
6.5 Policy recommendations on addressing climate change within sustainable development framework
REFERENCES
ONLINE SOURCES
GLOSSARY AND ABBREVIATIONS
APPENDIX
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
LIST OF PUBLICATIOS, PROCEEDINGS AND CONFERENCE ATTENDED
本文编号：3459879
【文章来源】：天津大学天津市 211工程院校 985工程院校 教育部直属院校
【文章页数】：171 页
【学位级别】：博士
【文章目录】：
Abstract
中文摘要
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
1.1 Objectives
1.2 Problem Definition/Statement
1.3 Project Justification
1.4 Area of Contribution
1.5 Research Methodology
1.6 Scope and Limitation
1.7 Work Organization
1.8.Structure of the Report
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
2.2 GreenHouse Gas Emissions
2.3 Global Warming Potentials
2.4 Concern about Climate Variability
2.5 Mitigation and Adaptation
2.5.1 Mitigation
2.5.2 Adaptation
2.5.3 Vulnerability
2.6 Observations and Trend of Climate Change in China
2.6.1 Current GHG Emissions in China
2.7 China’s Efforts and Achievements in Mitigating Climate Change
2.7.1 China’s Basic National Circumstances and Impacts of Climate Change on China
2.7.2 Principles and Objectives of China to Address Climate Change
2.7.3 Policies and Measures to Address Climate Change
2.8 Comparable Trends between the United States and China
2.8.1 China’s Domestic and Transboundary Air Pollution
2.8.2 Growing Economic and Health Costs from Coal Burning
2.9 China in the International Politics of Climate Change
2.9.1 Introduction
2.9.2 China’s Role in International Politics of Climate Change
2.10 China’s Energy Outlook 2007-2010
2.11 China Effort So Far
2.11.1 State of China’s Environment
2.11.2 Environmental Collaboration
2.11.3 Summarizing Chapter Two
CHAPTER THREE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS DRIVING FORCE
3.1.Introduction
3.2.Monitoring and Indicators
3.2.1 Coupling to a DSR-framework
CHAPTER FOUR SENSITIVITY SOFTWARE MECHANISMS AND APPLICATIONS
4.1 Critique on Environmental Kuznet Curve Model
4.2 An Informal Overview of the Sensitivity Model Prof. Vester Application Summary
4.2.1 Menu Mechanism
4.2.2 System Descriptions
4.2.3 The Preliminary System
4.2.4 List of Variables
4.2.5 System Criteria
4.2.6 Impact Matrix
4.2.7 Index of Influence
4.2.8 Systemic Role
4.3 Mathematical basics of the simulation tool in the Sensitivity Model Prof. Vester(?)
4.3.1 Variables and effects
4.3.2 Input factors
4.3.3 Effect factor
4.4 The physics of the Sensitivity Simulation Model
4.4.1 Modified Lotka-Volterra differential equations
4.4.2 One Variable: The Logistic Function
4.4.3 Two variables: General case
4.5 Additional elements of the simulation tools
4.5.1 Static variables
4.5.2 Effects with delay
4.5.3 Steps of the course
CHAPTER FIVE PARTIAL SCENARIOS AND SIMULATION
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The eight basics rules of bio-cybernetics
5.3 Simulation Model Runs
5.4 Analysis, Findings and Evaluation
5.4.1 Empirical Analysis and Application
5.4.2 Regression Results
5.4.3 The Role of Various Variables on Emissions and Others
5.4.4 The Impact of Population Varies with the Levels of Affluence
5.4.5 Brief Summary- The Effect of Population on C02
CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSION, POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
6.1 Conclusions
6.2 Practical/Policy Implication
6.3 Recommendations: Opportunities for a More Proactive Chinese Climate Policy in the Future
6.4 Addressing Climate Change within the Framework of Sustainable Development
6.4.1 Challenges in China’s sustainable development strategy
6.5 Policy recommendations on addressing climate change within sustainable development framework
REFERENCES
ONLINE SOURCES
GLOSSARY AND ABBREVIATIONS
APPENDIX
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
LIST OF PUBLICATIOS, PROCEEDINGS AND CONFERENCE ATTENDED
本文编号：3459879
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