类Hype Cycle技术成熟度评估方法研究

发布时间：2018-07-17 04:08

【摘要】：传统的技术成熟度评估方法可分为三类,技术就绪水平(TRL)方法、文献计量学方法和专利分析方法。美国高德纳(Gartner)咨询公司创建的Hype Cycle(技术成熟度曲线)是定性与定量相结合实现技术成熟度评估的新方法。Hype Cycle能够揭示技术创新演化的基本规律,是整体把握技术创新发展态势、客观评估技术创新成熟程度、合理选择技术创新介入时机、谋求技术创新后发优势的有力工具。1995年以来,高德纳基于Hype Cycle发布的新兴技术成熟度报告受到业界广泛认可和高度关注。高德纳生成Hype Cycle报告需依靠大量的专家,具体的方法流程和过程尚未公开。因而,非高德纳研究人员或机构难以个性化、定量化地绘制Hype Cycle曲线。针对这些问题,本研究结合单项技术成熟度的评估,运用非线性回归法解析了合成Hype Cycle曲线的原理,形成了类似Hype Cycle的成熟度评估曲线;运用共现分析法和K最近邻分类法等方法,实现了技术集群内多项技术成熟度的评估,标定了各项技术在标准Hype Cycle曲线上所处的相应区间。研究分为两部分:(1)单项技术成熟度评估方法研究;(2)技术集群内多项技术成熟度评估方法研究。单项技术除单一子技术外,还可以指某一技术领域或技术主题。技术集群内多项技术由颗粒度相同、主题相关的多项技术组成。单项技术成熟度的评估偏重技术在纵向时间序列的成熟度变化历程,技术集群内多项技术成熟度的评估侧重各项技术间成熟度的比较和排序。Hype Cycle由钟形曲线和S形曲线叠加形成。本研究基于SCI论文和专利数据,运用非线性回归法得到钟形曲线和S形曲线,根据曲线的数学特征将单项技术成熟度划分为萌芽期、膨胀期、成长期和稳定期。以此为基础,本研究运用多项式拟合法,将钟形曲线和S形曲线绘制成一条类似Hype Cycle曲线,描绘单项技术的发展趋势。技术集群内多项技术成熟度评估方法有四个环节:划定范围、追踪情报、排序成熟度、评估可行性。首先,根据组织目标划定评估对象的范围,确定技术主题;其次,深入挖掘技术主题的内容,包括基于德温特分类代码共现的技术结构分析和基于德温特手工代码、科技论文关键词共现的技术热点分析,辅以科技论文的内容分析,确定被评技术集群内多项技术;第三,运用K最近邻分类法进行技术集群内多项技术的成熟度分类;最后,根据组织类型,选择最恰当的技术。本研究选择传统X线摄影和光声层析成像技术进行方法测试,测试单项技术成熟度评估方法的可行性和有效性。技术集群内多项技术成熟度评估方法的测试是以创新者类型的组织为例,分析其采用四类血红蛋白氧载体技术的策略。四类技术分别是:(1)聚乙二醇(PEG)修饰血红蛋白技术;(2)类红细胞血红蛋白技术;(3)戊二醛聚合血红蛋白技术;(4)分子内交联血红蛋白技术。测试结果表明,技术成熟度评估结果与专家定性的评述比较一致,初步表明了类Hype Cycle技术成熟度评估方法的可行性和有效性。本研究的创新点主要有两点。一是基于定量数据生成了类似Hype Cycle的技术成熟度曲线,解析了合成Hype Cycle曲线的原理。二是尝试运用类Hype Cycle技术成熟度评估方法评估生物医药的技术,通过传统X线摄影技术和光声层析成像技术、血红蛋白氧载体的四类技术进行方法测试,发现本研究方法的效果较好,表明所建立的方法可用于生物医药技术评估。本研究对Hype Cycle曲线原理的解析,以及初步建立的类Hype Cycle技术成熟度评估方法,可以降低技术成熟度评估的时间和经济成本。在此基础上,结合领域专家的定性研判,将能形成更加全面、客观、准确的技术成熟度评估结果,以进一步指导技术创新策略的制定。
[Abstract]:The traditional evaluation methods of technical maturity can be divided into three categories: TRL, bibliometrics and patent analysis. The Hype Cycle (technical maturity curve) created by Gartner consulting company of the United States is a new method of combining qualitative and quantitative technology to realize technical maturity evaluation,.Hype Cycle can reveal Technology The basic law of innovation and evolution is a powerful tool for grasping the development trend of technological innovation as a whole, evaluating the maturity of technological innovation objectively, selecting the opportunity to intervene the technology innovation properly and seeking the advantage of technological innovation after.1995 years. Gao Dena's emerging technology maturity report based on Hype Cycle has been widely recognized and highly closed by the industry. Note. The generation of Hype Cycle report by Gartner relies on a large number of experts, and the specific process and process are not open. Therefore, the non Gao de Na researchers or institutions are difficult to personalize and quantify the Hype Cycle curve. In view of these problems, this study combines the evaluation of the maturity of single technology and the application of nonlinear regression to the analytical synthesis of H The principle of ype Cycle curve has formed a maturity evaluation curve similar to Hype Cycle. By means of co occurrence analysis and K nearest neighbor classification, the evaluation of multiple technical maturity within the technology cluster is realized and the corresponding interval of each technology in the standard Hype Cycle curve is demarcated. The study is divided into two parts: (1) single technology maturity Research on degree evaluation methods; (2) research on multiple technology maturity assessment methods in technical clusters. Single technology, in addition to single sub technology, can also refer to a technical field or technical theme. Many technologies in a technical cluster consist of the same particle size and a number of techniques related to the subject. The maturity change process of the sequence, the evaluation of multi technology maturity within the technology cluster focuses on the comparison and sorting of the maturity of each technology..Hype Cycle is formed by the superposition of the bell curve and the S shape curve. Based on the SCI paper and the patent data, the bell curve and the S shape curve are obtained by the nonlinear regression method, and the mathematical characteristics of the curve are based on the curve. The maturity of the single technology is divided into the germination period, the expansion period, the growth period and the stable period. By using the polynomial fitting method, this study draws the bell shape curve and the S shape curve into a similar Hype Cycle curve, depicts the development trend of the single technology. There are four links in the evaluation method of multiple technical maturity within the technical cluster. First, define the scope of the evaluation objects according to the organizational goals, determine the technical topics, and then dig into the content of the technical topics, including the technical structure analysis based on the co-occurrence of Derent classification code and the handmade code based on dwen, and the key points of the technical thesis. Analysis, supplemented by the content analysis of scientific papers, determine a number of techniques in the technical cluster evaluated; third, use K nearest neighbor classification to classify the maturity of a number of techniques in the technology cluster; finally, choose the most appropriate technology according to the type of organization. The feasibility and effectiveness of the technology maturity evaluation method. The test of multiple technology maturity assessment methods in the technology cluster is based on the organization of the innovators, and analyzes the strategies for the use of four kinds of hemoglobin oxygen carrier technology. The four kinds of techniques are: (1) polyethylene glycol (PEG) modified hemoglobin technology; (2) red blood cells red blood cells. White technology; (3) glutaraldehyde polymerized hemoglobin technology; (4) intramolecular crosslinked hemoglobin technology. Test results show that the evaluation results of technical maturity are in agreement with the experts' qualitative comments, which preliminarily indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the Hype Cycle technology maturity evaluation method. The volume data generated the technology maturity curve similar to Hype Cycle, and analyzed the principle of synthesizing Hype Cycle curve. Two it was to try to evaluate the technology of biological medicine by using the class Hype Cycle technology maturity evaluation method, and test the method by traditional X-ray photography and photoacoustic tomography, and the method of blood erythrocyte oxygen carrier. The results of this study show that the method can be used in the evaluation of biological medicine technology. The analysis of the principle of Hype Cycle curve and the preliminary evaluation method of Hype Cycle technology maturity can reduce the time and the cost of the technical maturity evaluation. Sexual judgment will lead to a more comprehensive, objective and accurate assessment of technology maturity, so as to further guide the formulation of technological innovation strategy.
【学位授予单位】：中国人民解放军军事医学科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：G353.1

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