成都市空气PM2.5浓度与呼吸系统疾病门诊人次的时间序列研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 07:17

本文选题：空气污染 + PM.　；参考：《现代预防医学》2015年04期

【摘要】：目的研究成都市空气PM2.5浓度与呼吸系统疾病门诊人次的关系。方法收集成都市3家综合性医院2013年逐日呼吸系统疾病门诊人次数、空气污染物及相关气象指标。采用Poisson广义相加模型(Generalized Additive Model,GAM),分析PM2.5浓度与呼吸系统疾病门诊量的关系及滞后效应。结果 2013年,成都市PM2.5年均浓度为96.9μg/m3;Spearman等级相关分析显示,呼吸系统疾病门诊人次与多种污染物(SO2、NO2、CO、PM2.5、PM10)浓度呈正相关(P0.05)。通过GAM分析,调整气象指标、星期几效应、节假日效应等因素后,PM2.5日均浓度每增加10μg/m3,预计呼吸系统疾病门诊人次增长0.58%(95%CI:0.32%~0.84%)。结论成都市空气PM2.5浓度增高可能会导致呼吸系统疾病门诊量增加,应进一步加强监测,减少污染物排放以保护居民健康。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the relationship between air PM2.5 concentration and respiratory disease outpatient visits in Chengdu.Methods the number of outpatient visits, air pollutants and related meteorological indexes were collected from 3 general hospitals in Chengdu in 2013.Poisson generalized Additive model was used to analyze the relationship between PM2.5 concentration and outpatient diagnosis of respiratory diseases and its lag effect.Results in 2013, the average annual concentration of PM2.5 in Chengdu was 96.9 渭 g / m ~ (3) Spearman grade correlation analysis showed that there was a positive correlation between respiratory disease outpatient visits and the concentration of various pollutants such as so _ 2O _ 2O _ (2) O _ (2) O _ (2) O _ (2) O _ (2.5) P _ (10).By means of GAM analysis, weather index adjustment, week effect, holiday effect and other factors, the average concentration of PM2.5 per day increased by 10 渭 g / m ~ (3), and it is estimated that the number of outpatient visits to respiratory diseases will increase by 0.58% to 0.32% and 0.84%.Conclusion the increase of air PM2.5 concentration in Chengdu may lead to an increase in the number of outpatients with respiratory diseases. It is necessary to further strengthen monitoring and reduce pollutant emissions in order to protect residents' health.
【作者单位】：成都市疾病预防控制中心;彭州市疾病预防控制中心;青羊区疾病预防控制中心;
【基金】：成都市空气污染(雾霾)人群健康影响监测项目
【分类号】：R56

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