气候因子对肺结核发病率影响的分析

发布时间：2018-06-12 04:17

本文选题：结核 + 肺　；参考：《中华疾病控制杂志》2014年11期

【摘要】：目的探讨肺结核发病率与气候因子的关系,为控制肺结核蔓延提供科学依据。方法从分析我国31省份2004-2011年气候因素出发,在多元线性回归和因子分析预测模型选择的基础上,选择了因子分析模型作为肺结核发病率预测模型,运用因子分析方法计算全国31个省份肺结核发病率与气候因子之间的相关性,根据权重计算综合气候因子(F)得分,然后根据综合得分划分不同气候特征地区,最后借助Arc-GIS 10.0软件绘制全国肺结核发病率分布趋势相关专题地图。结果根据气候因子综合得分共划分出5类地区。总体特点有同类地区,一年中气温、气压及风速变化幅度较大地区,肺结核发病率较高;湿度过高地区肺结核发病率有高发趋势。肺结核发病率分布特点呈现出西部地区高于东部地区,湿度过高地区高于同类地区中湿度较小地区的特点。结论我国西部地区肺结核疫情受气候因子影响明显,极端气候可能为传染病发病率回升的重要因素之一。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the relationship between incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and climatic factors, and to provide scientific basis for controlling the spread of tuberculosis. Methods based on the analysis of climatic factors in 31 provinces of China from 2004 to 2011 and on the basis of multiple linear regression and factor analysis model selection, factor analysis model was selected as the prediction model of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence. The correlation between incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis and climatic factors in 31 provinces of China was calculated by factor analysis method. The scores of integrated climate factors were calculated according to the weight, and then the regions with different climatic characteristics were divided according to the comprehensive scores. Finally, with the aid of Arc GIS 10.0 software, the related thematic map of the distribution trend of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in China was drawn. Results according to the comprehensive score of climate factors, 5 kinds of regions were divided. The overall characteristics of the same region, the temperature, air pressure and wind speed in a year large range of changes, the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis is high, high humidity areas have a high incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis. The distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence shows that the western region is higher than the eastern region, and the high humidity area is higher than the similar region. Conclusion Pulmonary tuberculosis epidemic situation in western China is obviously affected by climatic factors, and extreme weather may be one of the important factors for the rise of infectious disease incidence.
【作者单位】：中央民族大学生命与环境科学学院;中央民族大学北京市食品环境与健康工程技术研究中心;
【基金】：中央民族大学一流大学一流学科建设项目(YLDX01013)
【分类号】：R521

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