苏州市大气颗粒物与居民呼吸系统疾病死亡的时间序列分析

发布时间：2018-12-16 08:53

【摘要】：目的探讨苏州市大气颗粒物的急性暴露与居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡的关系。方法采用时间序列的广义相加模型,在控制时间趋势和气象因素等混杂因素的基础上,建立单污染物和双污染物模型,分析2010—2013年苏州市大气PM10、PM2.5浓度对居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的影响。结果单污染物模型中,苏州市大气PM10(lag0~1)、PM2.5(lag4)浓度每升高10μg/m3,居民呼吸系统疾病日死亡数分别增加0.408%(95%CI:0.083%~0.732%)和0.509%(95%CI:0.098%~0.921%)。双污染物模型中,调整大气PM2.5的影响后,PM10(lag0~1)对呼吸系统疾病死亡的超额危险度略有增加(ER=0.466%,95%CI:0.062%~0.871%);分别调整PM10和NO2的影响后,PM2.5(lag4)对呼吸系统疾病死亡的超额危险度分别为0.525%(95%CI:0.020%~1.029%)和0.782%(95%CI:0.320%~1.243%),差异均有统计学意义(P0.05)。结论苏州市大气PM10和PM2.5浓度升高可能导致居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡人数增加。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the relationship between acute exposure of atmospheric particulate matter and daily respiratory disease death in Suzhou. Methods the generalized additive model of time series was used to analyze the atmospheric PM10, of Suzhou from 2010 to 2013. Based on controlling the mixed factors such as time trend and meteorological factors, the model of single pollutant and double pollutant was established. The effect of PM2.5 concentration on the daily death toll of respiratory diseases in residents. Results in the model of single pollutant, the concentration of PM10 (lag0~1) and PM2.5 (lag4) increased by 10 渭 g / m ~ (3). The daily death rate of respiratory diseases of residents increased by 0.408% (95 CI: 0.083%) and 0.509% (95 CI: 0.098%). In the dual-pollutant model, after adjusting the effect of atmospheric PM2.5, PM10 (lag0~1) slightly increased the excess risk of respiratory disease death (ER=0.466%,95%CI:0.062%~0.871%). After adjusting the effects of PM10 and NO2, the excess risk of PM2.5 (lag4) to death from respiratory diseases was 0.525% (95 CI: 0.020 1.029%) and 0.782% (95 CI: 0.3200.320 1.243%), respectively. The difference was statistically significant (P0.05). Conclusion the increase of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in Suzhou may lead to an increase in the daily death toll of respiratory diseases.
【作者单位】：苏州市高新区疾病预防控制中心卫生监测科;苏州市疾病预防控制中心慢性病防制科;苏州市环境监测中心自动监测与预警科;苏州市疾病预防控制中心环境卫生科;
【基金】：苏州市医学重点学科项目(2013012) 苏州市科技局科技支撑计划(SS201430)
【分类号】：R56

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