中国居民1987—2014年肺癌死亡趋势分析

发布时间：2018-06-22 10:58

  本文选题：肺癌 + 死亡率　； 参考：《中国公共卫生》2017年01期

【摘要】：目的分析中国居民1987—2014年肺癌死亡的时间变化趋势。方法汇总中国居民1987—2014年肺癌死亡率数据,利用Joinpoint模型估算各年龄组人群肺癌死亡率的时间变化趋势,负二项回归模型探索肺癌死亡在人群水平上的危险因素。结果肺癌死亡的风险比值,城市居民是农村居民的1.43倍(95%CI=1.35~1.50,P0.01),男性是女性的2.28倍(95%CI=2.17~2.41,P0.01),每增加5岁,肺癌死亡风险平均增大62%(OR=1.62,95%CI=1.60~1.63,P0.01),每过一年平均增大1%(OR=1.01,95%CI=1.00~1.01,P0.01);农村居民肺癌中标死亡率上升明显[男性死亡率年度变化百分比(APC)=2.58%,女性APC=2.54%:P0.01],城市女性略有下降(APC=-0.74%,P0.01),城市男性无明显趋势(APC=-0.23%,P=0.11);城市居民在20~74岁肺癌死亡率逐年下降,≥75岁逐年上升;农村低龄组居民无明显下降趋势,农村男性≥40岁、农村女性≥50岁呈明显上升趋势。结论中国肺癌死亡率的变化趋势有年龄差异;农村地区肺癌死亡率逐年增加。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the temporal change trend of lung cancer death in Chinese residents from 1987 to 2014. Methods the lung cancer mortality data of Chinese residents from 1987 to 2014 were collected, and the temporal trends of lung cancer mortality in different age groups were estimated by Joinpoint model. The negative binomial regression model was used to explore the risk factors of lung cancer mortality at population level. Results the risk ratio of lung cancer death in urban residents was 1.43 times as high as that in rural residents (95CII 1.35 1.50% P0.01), and in men 2.28 times that in women (95CII 2.172.41% P0.01). Every increase of 5 years old, the risk of lung cancer death in urban residents was 1.43 times higher than that in rural residents. The risk of lung cancer death increased by 62% on average (OR1.62C95CII 1.60 / 1.63P0.01) and by 1% every year (OR1.0195 CIQ 1.001.01 P0.01); the mortality rate of lung cancer in rural residents increased significantly [APC 2.5858%, APC-2.54% P0.01], urban women decreased slightly (APC-0.74P0.01), urban males showed no obvious trend. (APC-0.23); the mortality rate of lung cancer among urban residents at 20 to 74 years old decreased year by year. The age of 鈮，

本文编号：2052613