应用分类树模型分析环境因素暴露对儿童急性淋巴细胞白血病的影响

发布时间：2018-10-18 07:25

【摘要】：[目的]应用分类树模型构建儿童急性淋巴细胞白血病(ALL)的影响因素模型,筛选环境危险因素,为预防儿童ALL提供科学依据。[方法]采用病例-对照研究的流行病学方法,通过问卷回顾性调查315名研究对象(儿童ALL患者为病例组,共179名;社会健康儿童为对照组,共136名)的相关信息,包含可能的儿童ALL影响因素30个。利用分类树模型卡方自动交互检测(CHAID)法建立儿童ALL影响因素模型,通过收益图、索引图及受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评价模型的应用价值。[结果]分类树模型包括4层,共11个节点,筛选出5个儿童ALL的解释变量,分别是:儿童不爱吃蔬菜水果(χ2=47.070,P0.001)、母亲孕期服用药物(χ2=13.638,P0.001)、母亲孕期感冒(χ2=8.650,P=0.003)、儿童接触油漆涂料(χ2=8.403,P=0.004)、母亲孕期二手烟暴露(χ2=8.803,P=0.003)。模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.781,与曲线下面积0.5相比,差异有统计学意义(P0.001),模型的拟合效果较好。[结论]部分环境因素暴露可能与儿童ALL存在关联。
[Abstract]:[objective] to construct a model of influencing factors of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (AML) by using the classification tree model, and to screen the environmental risk factors and provide scientific basis for the prevention of ALL in children. [methods] the information of 315 subjects (179 children with ALL and 136 healthy children as control group) was investigated retrospectively by using the epidemiological method of case-control study. There were 30 possible factors affecting ALL in children. The influence factor model of child ALL was established by using the classification tree model chi-square automatic interactive detection (CHAID) method. The application value of the model was evaluated by income graph index graph and (ROC) curve of operating characteristics of subjects. [results] the classification tree model consisted of 4 layers and 11 nodes, and five explanatory variables of child ALL were screened out. The results were as follows: children did not like to eat fruits and vegetables (蠂 2 + 47.070), mothers took drugs during pregnancy (蠂 2 + 13.638% P 0.001), mothers had colds during pregnancy (蠂 2 + 8.650), children were exposed to paint (蠂 2) (蠂 2 + 8.403), and mothers were exposed to secondhand smoke during pregnancy (蠂 2 8. 803 P + 0.003). The area under the ROC curve of the model was 0.781.The difference was statistically significant compared with the area under the curve (P0. 001), and the fitting effect of the model was better. [conclusion] partial exposure to environmental factors may be associated with ALL in children.
【作者单位】：天津市疾病预防控制中心;天津市滨海新区大港疾病预防控制中心;中国医学科学院血液病研究所血液病医院;
【基金】：国家自然科学青年基金项目(编号:81200396) 天津市卫生计生委科技基金重点项目(编号:2014KR12) 天津市疾病预防控制中心科技基金项目(编号:CDCKY1406)
【分类号】：R733.71

【相似文献】