人口老龄化对重庆市肝癌发病趋势影响分析

发布时间：2018-12-15 11:14

【摘要】：目的了解重庆市肝癌发病趋势及人口年龄因素与其它影响因素的影响,为开展肝癌防治提供建议。方法采用国际疾病分类(ICD-10)与国际肿瘤学分类(ICD-0-3)整理分析重庆市11个肿瘤登记点2006-2015年肝癌发病资料,采用SPSS19.0统计分析粗发病率、中标率、年度变化百分比,趋势变化采用曲线估计指数分布回归模型进行判别。利用恶性肿瘤发病率差别分解法计算出人口年龄因素与其它影响因素对肝癌发病的贡献率。结果重庆市肝癌粗发病率由2006年的18.39/10万上升至2015年的27.68/10万,变化趋势差异无统计学意义(F=3.04,P=0.119),中标率从2006年的16.32/10万上升至2015年的18.30/10万,APC为-0.90%,变化趋势差异无统计学意义(F=0.38,P=0.555)。肝癌粗发病率男性高于女性,女性肝癌中标率由10.50/10万下降至9.15/10万APC为-4.50%,变化趋势差异有统计学意义(F=7.93,P=0.023)。肝癌发病率随年龄的增长而上升,40岁后呈快速上升的趋势,85岁~年龄组达到高峰。肝癌发病率人口年龄因素与其它影响因素的贡献率分别为84.36%与15.64%。城市人口年龄因素与其它影响因素的贡献率分别为52.96%与47.04%,农村人口年龄因素与其它影响因素的贡献率分别为190.15%与-90.15%。结论重庆市肝癌发病率呈缓慢上升的趋势,肝癌发病率上升主要是人口年龄因素的影响。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the incidence trend of liver cancer and the influence of population age and other influencing factors in Chongqing, and to provide suggestions for the prevention and treatment of liver cancer. Methods International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) and International Classification of Oncology (ICD-0-3) were used to collate and analyze the incidence of liver cancer in 11 tumor registration sites in Chongqing from 2006 to 2015. The crude incidence rate and winning rate were analyzed by SPSS19.0 statistics. The percentage of annual change and trend change are judged by the regression model of exponential distribution of curve estimation. The contribution rate of population age and other influencing factors to the incidence of liver cancer was calculated by the differential decomposition method of incidence of malignant tumor. Results the crude incidence of liver cancer in Chongqing increased from 18.39% / 100 000 in 2006 to 276.8% / 100 000 in 2015. The bid winning rate rose from 16.32 / 100 million in 2006 to 18.30 / 100 million in 2015. The APC was -0.90, and there was no significant difference in the trend of the change (F0. 38 / 100 ~ 0. 555). The crude incidence of HCC in males was higher than that in females, and the successful rate of HCC in females decreased from 10.50 / 100 000 to -4.50% (P < 0.05). The incidence of liver cancer increased with the increase of age. After 40 years old, the incidence rate of liver cancer increased rapidly, and reached the peak in 85 ~ age group. The contribution rates of age factors and other influencing factors to the incidence of liver cancer were 84.36% and 15.64%, respectively. The contribution rates of urban population age factors and other influencing factors were 52.96% and 47.04%, respectively. The contribution rates of rural population age factors and other influencing factors were 190.15% and -90.15% respectively. Conclusion the incidence of liver cancer in Chongqing is increasing slowly, and the increase of incidence of liver cancer is mainly influenced by the age of population.
【作者单位】：重庆市疾病预防控制中心慢性病预防控制所;
【基金】：财政部国家卫生计生委公共卫生专项肿瘤随访登记项目(财社[2015]82号)
【分类号】：R735.7

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