蚌埠地区乳腺癌高危妇女风险评估模型的初步研究
发布时间：2018-12-17 02:33
【摘要】：目的:筛选蚌埠地区妇女患乳腺癌的危险因素,初步建立符合蚌埠地区的乳腺癌风险评估模型,探讨乳腺癌低、中、高风险的分界点;并用该模型评估蚌埠地区具备特定危险因素的女性患乳腺癌的机率。方法:本研究属病例对照研究,于2015年3月到11月在蚌埠医学院一附院(47)、二附院(9)和蚌埠市第三人民医院(15)3家三甲医院肿瘤外科和普外科住院并经病理确诊的71例本地原发性乳腺癌患者。对照组选取同期在同一家医院体检中心体检健康的本地女性,年龄(±2岁)与病例相近,共选取91例。采用二元Logistic回归筛选出本地乳腺癌的主要危险因素,在此基础上建立乳腺癌风险评估模型。Fisher判别分析评价模型;观察ROC曲线下面积来判断模型诊断效能,并利用ROC曲线寻找乳腺癌低、中、高风险的截断值。结果:1.与乳腺癌相关的单因素有:(1)一般资料:文化程度、职业、家庭平均月收入、医保方式和体重指数。?生殖因素:生育次数和流产次数。?饮食因素:豆类及豆制品、蛋奶及其制品、油炸烧烤类、薯类和饮用水源。(4)睡眠情况:睡眠时间、睡眠满意度和戴胸罩睡觉。(5)行为生活习惯:体育锻炼和运动量。(6)环境因素:居住地和居住环境周围污染源情况。(7)心理因素:生活总体满意度。(7)认知和筛检行为:认知总分分组和乳腺癌筛查情况。2.多因素二元Logistic回归的主要危险因素有:家庭经济状况、食用豆类及其豆制品、负性情绪的排解和乳腺癌筛查。3.用风险评估模型预测低、中、高危人群,预测概率值P≤0.49判为低危险性人群,预测概率值P≥0.51判为高危险性人群,0.49预测概率值P0.51判为中危险性人群。结论:该模型可评估蚌埠地区具备特定危险因素的女性患乳腺癌风险,为建立筛查标准提供一定依据。
[Abstract]:Objective: to screen the risk factors of breast cancer among women in Bengbu area, and to establish a risk assessment model for breast cancer in Bengbu area, and to explore the dividing point of low, middle and high risk of breast cancer. The model was used to assess the risk of breast cancer among women with specific risk factors in Bengbu. Methods: a case-control study was conducted in the first affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College (47) from March to November, 2015. The second affiliated Hospital (9) and the third people's Hospital of Bengbu (15) were hospitalized in tumor surgery and general surgery and confirmed by pathology in 71 cases of local primary breast cancer. In the control group, 91 local women (卤2 years old) were selected for physical examination in the same hospital. The main risk factors of local breast cancer were screened by binary Logistic regression, and the risk assessment model of breast cancer was established on the basis of which the Fisher discriminant analysis model was established. The area under the ROC curve was observed to determine the diagnostic effectiveness of the model and the ROC curve was used to find the truncation values of breast cancer at low, middle and high risk. Results: 1. The single factors associated with breast cancer are: (1) General data: education, occupation, average monthly household income, health care style and body mass index. Reproductive factors: number of births and times of abortion.? Dietary factors: beans and soy products, egg milk and its products, fried barbecues, potatoes and drinking water. (4) Sleep: sleep time, Sleep satisfaction and bra sleeping. (5) behavior habits: physical exercise and exercise volume. (6) Environmental factors: pollution sources around living place and living environment. (7) Psychological factors: overall life satisfaction (7) Cognitive and screening behavior: cognitive subgroup and breast cancer screening. The main risk factors for multivariate Logistic regression were as follows: family economic status, consumption of beans and their products, negative emotion excretion and breast cancer screening. The risk assessment model was used to predict the low, middle and high risk population. The predicted probability value P 鈮，
本文编号：2383500
[Abstract]:Objective: to screen the risk factors of breast cancer among women in Bengbu area, and to establish a risk assessment model for breast cancer in Bengbu area, and to explore the dividing point of low, middle and high risk of breast cancer. The model was used to assess the risk of breast cancer among women with specific risk factors in Bengbu. Methods: a case-control study was conducted in the first affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College (47) from March to November, 2015. The second affiliated Hospital (9) and the third people's Hospital of Bengbu (15) were hospitalized in tumor surgery and general surgery and confirmed by pathology in 71 cases of local primary breast cancer. In the control group, 91 local women (卤2 years old) were selected for physical examination in the same hospital. The main risk factors of local breast cancer were screened by binary Logistic regression, and the risk assessment model of breast cancer was established on the basis of which the Fisher discriminant analysis model was established. The area under the ROC curve was observed to determine the diagnostic effectiveness of the model and the ROC curve was used to find the truncation values of breast cancer at low, middle and high risk. Results: 1. The single factors associated with breast cancer are: (1) General data: education, occupation, average monthly household income, health care style and body mass index. Reproductive factors: number of births and times of abortion.? Dietary factors: beans and soy products, egg milk and its products, fried barbecues, potatoes and drinking water. (4) Sleep: sleep time, Sleep satisfaction and bra sleeping. (5) behavior habits: physical exercise and exercise volume. (6) Environmental factors: pollution sources around living place and living environment. (7) Psychological factors: overall life satisfaction (7) Cognitive and screening behavior: cognitive subgroup and breast cancer screening. The main risk factors for multivariate Logistic regression were as follows: family economic status, consumption of beans and their products, negative emotion excretion and breast cancer screening. The risk assessment model was used to predict the low, middle and high risk population. The predicted probability value P 鈮，
本文编号：2383500
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