气候变化背景下藏药黑果枸杞的潜在适生区分布预测

发布时间：2018-04-27 16:27

本文选题：藏药 + 黑果枸杞　；参考：《中国中药杂志》2017年14期

【摘要】：在气候变化背景下预测藏药黑果枸杞在当代及未来的适生区分布格局,为其资源可持续利用及GAP规范化种植提供参考。基于黑果枸杞149个分布数据及当代(1950—2000年)和未来(21世纪20—80年代)的气候数据,同时考虑3种温室气体排放场景,应用最大墒模型(Maxent)和地理信息系统(Arc GIS 10.3.1)软件,定量地预测了黑果枸杞在我国的潜在适生区及其适生等级。发现:(1)黑果枸杞的当代适生区主要分布于我国新疆、青海、甘肃、内蒙古、宁夏,陕西、山西、西藏境内也发现分布区;(2)黑果枸杞当代适生区总面积为284.506 949×104km2,占中国国土面积的29.6%;(3)相对稳定区域为总适生区的25.2%;(4)气候变化背景下,相较于当代,其在21世纪20—80年代的适生区总面积均有不同程度的减少,但是中度适生区又有不同程度的增加。气候变化对黑果枸杞适生区总面积及生境适宜度均会产生不同程度的双面影响。通过以气候变化为主导因素的黑果枸杞潜在适生区分布预测,可为今后科学的保护、开发与利用黑果枸杞资源提供战略性指导。
[Abstract]:In the context of climate change, the distribution pattern of Tibetan medicine black fruit and wolfberry in the present and future habitat is predicted. It provides reference for the sustainable utilization of resources and the standardized planting of GAP. Based on the 149 distribution data of black fruit Lycium barbarum and the climate data of the contemporary (1950 to 2000) and the future (from 20 to 80s twenty-first Century), 3 greenhouse gas emission fields are considered simultaneously. Landscape, using the maximum soil moisture model (Maxent) and geographic information system (Arc GIS 10.3.1) software, a quantitative prediction of the potential habitat of black fruit and wolfberry in China and its suitability grade have been made. (1) the current regions of the black fruit and wolfberry are mainly distributed in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Tibet. The total area of the black fruit Lycium barbarum is 284.506949 x 104km2, accounting for 29.6% of China's land area, and (3) the relative stability region is 25.2% of the total habitat area. (4) under the climate change background, the total area of the area from 20 to 80s in twenty-first Century has been reduced in a different degree compared to the present day, but the moderate growing area has a different degree of increase. With climate change as the dominant factor in the distribution of potential habitats of black fruit Lycium barbarum, it can provide strategic guidance for future scientific protection, development and utilization of the resources of black fruit Lycium barbarum.

【作者单位】：甘肃中医药大学药学院;中(藏)药资源研究所;
【基金】：国家中医药管理局中医药行业专项(2012070025-02) 2012年甘肃省中医药管理局项目(GZK-2012-21) 甘肃省科技计划基础研究创新群体项目(1606RJIA323) 中央财政引导地方科技创新平台项目(2016-A-02)
【分类号】：R29

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