基于突变理论的火灾事故预测研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 06:21

本文关键词： 突变理论火灾事故尖点突变预测灰色预测灰色—尖点突变预测　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2009年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 火灾是严重危害人民生命、经济发展和生态环境最常见的灾害之一,虽然近些年国家加大了消防安全管理力度,火灾事故得到有效遏制,但是形势仍然不容乐观,重特大火灾事故时有发生。火灾事故的沉痛教训,使人们意识到及早掌握火灾发生规律以及制定预防对策的重要性,火灾预测也成为火灾领域中一个不可缺少的课题。突变理论是研究在连续发展过程中出现的突然变化的现象,而系统从安全状态转变为事故状态实际上也是一种突变现象。因此,突变理论是研究事故所适用的理论。突变的特点决定了对于事故与灾害的预测不能用一般的预测方法,需要引入突变理论来建立一套有效的预测模式。本文从火灾事故预测出发,首先在分析影响火灾事故发生的各种因素的基础上,将突变理论引入火灾安全科学领域中,构建了反映火灾事故发生本质的火灾事故致因尖点突变模型。其次,本文采用突变理论中的数据拟合方法,对我国1997～2006年火灾事故四项指标统计数据进行拟合,判断统计数据的状态是否发生突变。然后运用灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型和残差模型对火灾统计数据进行预测,分析预测结果的精度。最后,本文针对采用尖点突变预测模型和灰色预测模型中存在的不足之处,提出将两种预测模型结合起来的灰色—尖点突变预测模型,再次对火灾事故指标统计数据进行预测,更加准确地判断各项指标是否处于突变状态。本文把突变理论具体应用到火灾事故的预测当中,分析火灾系统功能状态的演变过程以及火灾事故发展趋势,为制定火灾事故预防对策提供依据,具有一定的研究意义,并取得了一定的成果。
[Abstract]:Fire is a serious harm to people's life, one of the most common economic development and ecological environment of the disaster, although in recent years the state has increased the intensity of fire safety management, fire accidents have been effectively curbed, but the situation is still not optimistic, serious fire accidents have occurred. The painful lessons of fire, make people aware of the fire as soon as possible to master the law and establish the preventive measures. The fire prediction has become an indispensable task in fire field.
Catastrophe theory is studied in the continuous development of sudden changes appeared in the process of the phenomenon, and from the system safety state into the accident state is actually a kind of catastrophe phenomenon. Therefore, the catastrophe theory is an applicable theory to study accident. The mutation characteristics determine the forecast for the accident and disaster not by common forecasting methods, need the introduction of catastrophe theory to establish a set of effective prediction model.
Starting from the prediction of fire accidents, first, based on the analysis of various factors that affect the occurrence of fire accidents, the catastrophe theory is introduced into the field of fire safety science, and a cusp catastrophe model reflecting the essence of fire accidents is constructed.
Secondly, this paper uses mutation data fitting method in the theory of fitting to our country 1997~2006 years fire accident four indicators of statistical data, statistical data to judge whether the state of mutation. Then using grey system theory GM (1,1) model and residual error model to predict the fire statistics data analysis, the accuracy of the prediction results.
Finally, in view of the shortcomings of cusp catastrophe prediction model and grey prediction model, the grey cusp combination of two kinds of prediction model of mutation prediction model to predict the statistics again fire accident indicators, more accurate judgment of the indicators is mutation status.
In this paper, catastrophe theory is applied to the prediction of fire accidents. It analyzes the evolution of fire system functional state and the development trend of fire accidents. It has certain research significance for the development of fire prevention countermeasures, and has achieved certain results.

【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：D631.6;F224

【引证文献】