1955—2007年中国经济与犯罪关系实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 21:24

本文选题：经济增长　切入点：收入差距　出处：《中国农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2009年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章对1955—2007年中国经济增长、收入差距、人口流动率、城市化水平和犯罪率变化的数据运用岭回归方法建立多元线性回归模型,分析了改革开放前后犯罪率变化与经济增长、收入差距、人口流动率、城市化水平的关系。实证结果表明,宏观经济政策的变化对犯罪率有重要影响,不管在何种经济体制之下,经济增长始终会导致犯罪率的下降,而收入差距扩大都会带来犯罪率上升,由于社会控制方式的转变,改革开放以后人口流动率上升和城市化规模的扩大是犯罪率上升的重要原因。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of China's economic growth, income gap, population mobility, urbanization level and crime rate during 1955-2007, a multivariate linear regression model was established by using the ridge regression method. The changes of crime rate and economic growth before and after reform and opening up were analyzed. Empirical results show that changes in macroeconomic policies have an important impact on crime rates, and that under any economic system, economic growth will always lead to a decline in crime rates. The increase of income gap will lead to the increase of crime rate. Because of the change of social control mode, the increase of population mobility rate and the expansion of urbanization scale after reform and opening up are the important reasons for the increase of crime rate.
【作者单位】：西北农林科技大学经济管理学院;陕西省人民检察院;云南财经大学;
【分类号】：D917

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