群体性突发事件中群体行为演化机理研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 03:05

本文选题：群体性突发事件 + 群体行为　；参考：《中国科学技术大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：美国著名的政治学家萨缪尔·亨廷顿(Samuel P. Huntington)提出了一个关于政治稳定与现代化进程关系的经典命题：“现代性孕育着稳定,而现代化过程却滋生着动乱。”现阶段,我国正处于经济体制转型、社会结构变动、社会形态变迁的关键历史时期,从计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制、从传统社会向现代社会、从农业社会向工业社会、从封闭性社会向开放性社会的转变和发展。人口、资源、环境、效率、公平等社会矛盾越来越突出且日益加剧,造成经济容易失调、社会容易失序、心理容易失衡,可以说当前是我国改革发展的关键时期,又是社会矛盾日益凸显的爆发期。社会矛盾的涌现导致近年来群体性突发事件的发生次数不断上升,参与群体的规模日益扩大,群体行为的对抗程度也在逐步升级,这些已经对我国社会的有序稳定造成了严重的影响。自2000年1月1日至2013年9月30日,被我国境内正式出版发行的纸质媒体以及拥有“互联网新闻信息服务许可”的网络媒体所报道的群体性突发事件就有3145起,其造成的生命、财产损失更是无法估量。因此,群体性突发事件的科学预防、合理处置对于我国构建和谐社会、推进现代化进程有着至关重要的意义。本研究即在这一历史背景下,对群体性突发事件及群体行为的演化机理与发展规律展开深入的探讨和研究,以期为科学预防、合理处置群体性突发事件提供理论依据和科学借鉴。本研究的主要工作如下： (1)群体性突发事件中谣言信息的扩散模式研究。从突发事件中应急信息扩散的理论研究入手,结合具体的案例分析谣言信息扩散在群体性突发事件中所起的导火索或催化剂的作用。构建谣言信息在正式渠道和非正式渠道——两种不同传播渠道下的扩散模式以及最终的扩散结果,并通过计算机仿真模拟出不同状态条件下谣言信息的扩散模式和结果。 (2)群体性突发事件中群体行为演化机理分析。群体抢购行为尤其是突发事件后恐慌抢购行为是一种常见的、典型的群体行为。本研究以群体抢购行为为特定研究对象,在库尔特·卢因(Kurt Lewin)的群体行为动力学理论的基础上,引入中介变量——个体的抢购心理预期价值判断,构建群体抢购行为的动力理论模型。结合2011年3月份日本核危机背景下发生在我国的公众抢盐事件这一案例,对群体性突发事件中群体行为的演化机理、生命周期进行了分析。 (3)群体性突发事件中群体行为态势演化评估。基于霍曼斯(Homans)的群体行为构成三要素理论,从活动、相互影响、情绪三个方面对搜集到的52起群体性突发事件中的群体行为态势进行评估,并采用等级评估法对评估的结果进行等级划分。从群体结构特征、事件特征、环境因素三个方面选取变量,对群体性突发事件中群体行为态势的影响因素进行回归分析,结果表明事件发生地点、人员伤亡和群体内部关系这三个影响因素对群体行为态势的影响都很显著。 (4)群体性突发事件中群体行为应对策略分析。在前文研究结果的基础上,从外部环境、群体结构、信息沟通三个维度有针对性地提出合理应对群体性突发事件及其群体行为的政策建议,为相关利益主体提供参考和借鉴。本研究的创新之处主要体现在三个方面： (1)从突发事件应急信息的传播渠道入手,根据信息在正式渠道和非正式渠道两种不同传播渠道下的扩散规律及扩散状态的差异,构建群体性突发事件中谣言信息和正确信息的在两种传播渠道作用下的扩散模型,并采用系统仿真的手段,分析两类信息在不同状态条件下的扩散模式。结果表明,两类信息的扩散速度受到正式渠道覆盖范围的影响；最终的扩散规模与信息发布的准确性和权威性存在正相关的关系；公众的应急素质则影响信息扩散达到稳定状态时所需要的时间。 (2)通过引入中介变量——个体的抢购心理预期价值判断,对Kurt Lewin的群体行为动力学理论进行了创新,并在此基础上构建了群体抢购行为的动力理论模型。结合2011年3月份日本核危机背景下发生在我国的食盐抢购事件这一案例的分析发现,个体产生抢购行为受到内在生命安全需要的驱动和外在群体环境因素的影响；其中,外在群体环境因素是通过影响中介变量——抢购心理预期价值判断而影响个体行为决策；另外,在抢购事件演化的不同阶段,每个影响因素的作用力有所不同。 (3)基于Homans的群体行为构成三要素理论,选取活动、相互影响和情绪这三个指标对群体行为的态势演化进行评估。采用等级评估法对群体性突发事件中群体行为的态势进行评估,并按标准进行等级划分。然后从群体结构特征、事件特征、环境因素三方面选取变量,回归分析的结果表明,事件发生地点、人员伤亡和群体内部关系对群体行为构成三个要素的影响都很显著。对于群体性突发事件中群体行为态势的定量评估以及影响因素分析,为学界对群体行为的研究做出了一定的理论贡献。本研究的实践意义在于：从外部环境、群体结构、信息沟通三个维度,对群体性突发事件及其群体行为的科学预防和合理处置提出了应对策略,为相关利益主体提供实践层面的参考和借鉴。
[Abstract]:Samuel P . Huntington , a famous American political scientist , put forward a classical proposition on the relationship between political stability and modernization .

The emergence of social contradictions has led to the rise of the number of mass incidents in recent years , the scale of the participating groups is expanding , and the degree of confrontation of the group behavior has been gradually upgraded . The scientific prevention and rational disposal of the mass emergencies has a vital significance for the construction of a harmonious society and the modernization process .

( 1 ) The research on the diffusion model of the rumor information in mass emergencies . Based on the theoretical research on the diffusion of emergency information in the incident , the diffusion model and the final diffusion result of the rumor information in the formal channel and the informal channel are analyzed , and the diffusion mode and the result of the rumor information under different state conditions are simulated by computer simulation .

( 2 ) The analysis of the evolution mechanism of mass behavior in mass emergencies . The group ' s rush behavior is a common and typical group behavior .

( 3 ) Based on Homans ' s group behavior , the group behavior situation in 52 cases of mass emergencies is evaluated , and the results of the assessment are classified according to three aspects : activity , mutual influence and emotion .

( 4 ) Group behavior should be analyzed by group behavior in group incidents . Based on the results of previous studies , the policy suggestions of reasonable response to mass emergencies and their group behavior are put forward from the three dimensions of external environment , group structure and information communication . It provides reference and reference for relevant stakeholders .

The innovation of this study is mainly reflected in three aspects :

( 1 ) The diffusion model of two kinds of information in different state conditions is constructed by means of the diffusion law and the diffusion state of the information in two different propagation channels of the official channel and the informal channel , and the diffusion model of the two kinds of information under different state conditions is analyzed by means of system simulation . The results show that the diffusion speed of the two types of information is affected by the coverage of the formal channel ;
There is a positive correlation between the final diffusion scale and the accuracy and authority of the information release ;
The public ' s emergency quality affects the time required for the diffusion of information to a steady state .

( 2 ) Based on the analysis of the case study of salt purchase in our country under the background of Japan ' s nuclear crisis in March 2011 , it is found that the individual ' s purchasing behavior is influenced by the driving and external environment factors that need to be driven by the inherent life safety .
Among them , the external environmental factors influence individual behavior decision by influencing the value judgement of intermediate variable _ rush - purchase psychological expectation value ;
In addition , each influencing factor varies depending on the different stages of the acquisition event evolution .

( 3 ) Based on Homans ' s group behavior , three factors theory , selection activity , mutual influence and emotion are selected to evaluate the situation of group behavior .

The practical significance of this study lies in the following : from the external environment , the population structure , the information communication three dimensions , the scientific prevention and reasonable disposal of the mass incident and its group behavior , puts forward the countermeasures , and provides the practical level reference and reference for the relevant stakeholders .
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：D631.43

【参考文献】