社会稳定风险仿真模拟与社会冲突的前馈控制——基于政策模拟方法的社会稳定风险系列研究之一

发布时间：2018-06-13 18:08

本文选题：社会稳定风险 + 社会冲突　；参考：《北京行政学院学报》2016年01期

【摘要】：政策一旦投入社会现实之中,就会形成一种能量,迫使原有的社会利益结构发生某种改变且覆水难收。所以为规避社会冲突,政策制定者总是事先进行社会稳定风险评估,力求预知特定政策投入运行后所产生能量的正负及其大小,以规避或防范社会冲突。由于社会风险模拟方法以特定的政策及其施加目标为研究对象,可以在人工环境中建立一个与它相似的仿真模型,并通过人工和计算机手段,使其在虚拟环境中运行和多向度推演,观察其未来发展变化的过程及最终结果,预先发现其中的问题并进行对策矫正,因此这种方法被业内认为以动态推演的优势超越于传统的静态评估,对社会冲突风险的防范具有极大的应用价值。通过对社会稳定风险仿真模拟的主要内容及其焦点和难点进行探讨,同时针对社会稳定风险系统整体性涌现的产物——社会冲突,提出利用社会风险仿真模拟方法实施前馈控制的初步构想。
[Abstract]:Once the policy is put into the social reality, it will form a kind of energy, forcing the original social interest structure to change. Therefore, in order to avoid social conflicts, policy makers always carry out risk assessment of social stability in advance, and try to predict the positive and negative energy generated after the operation of specific policies, in order to avoid or prevent social conflicts. Because the social risk simulation method focuses on specific policies and their imposed targets, it is possible to establish a simulation model similar to it in artificial environments and to use both artificial and computer methods. Make it run in virtual environment and multi-direction extrapolation, observe the process and final result of its future development and change, detect the problems in advance and carry out countermeasures and correction. Therefore, this method is considered to be superior to the traditional static evaluation by the advantage of dynamic inference, and has great application value to the prevention of social conflict risk. This paper discusses the main content, focus and difficulty of the simulation of social stability risk, and at the same time, aims at the social conflict, which is the result of the emergence of social stability risk system as a whole. A preliminary idea of feedforward control by using social risk simulation method is put forward.
【作者单位】：天津工业大学公共危机管理研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(13ASH133)
【分类号】：D631.43

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