入室盗窃多尺度地理因子分析

发布时间：2018-07-25 17:36

【摘要】：选取N市作为研究区域,以该市2013年全年的入室盗窃案件作为研究对象。将研究区域内入室盗窃与地理因子在不同空间尺度上进行关联性对比分析。首先,从环境犯罪学理论和现有犯罪地理特征研究两方面出发,分析现有研究中的尺度依赖性。每一套环境犯罪学理论均有其适用的空间尺度,在犯罪地理特征研究中会有相应的地理因子与之关联;其次,引入似不相关回归模型获取入室盗窃与地理因子在小区、街区、社区、街道以及区等多个空间尺度上的关联性。并用瓦尔德检验来测试各个关联系数之间差异的显著性。实验结果表明,随着尺度的变化,有些地理因子与入室盗窃的关联性并未变化,有些则发生了显著变化。这些变化可用不同尺度的犯罪地理学理论进行解释;最后,将多个尺度地理因子反演入室盗窃空间分布的结果进行综合,并将之与单一尺度的反演结果进行比较。结果证明,与单一尺度的地理因子反演犯罪空间分布的精度相比,利用多个尺度地理因子解释犯罪空间分布的精度更高。研究表明:在犯罪地理学研究中,环境犯罪学理论、地理因子分析以及犯罪空间分布反演均存在尺度依赖性。综合多个尺度的结果进行分析,不仅有利于准确认识犯罪的地理因子及其对应理论,对于犯罪反演精度也有所提高。
[Abstract]:City N is chosen as the research area, and the burglary case in 2013 is taken as the research object. The correlation between burglaries and geographical factors in different spatial scales was compared. Firstly, the scale dependence in the current research is analyzed from two aspects: the theory of environmental criminology and the study of the geographical characteristics of existing crime. Each set of environmental criminology theory has its applicable spatial scale, in the study of geographical characteristics of crime, there will be a corresponding geographical factors associated with it; secondly, the introduction of seemingly unrelated regression model to obtain burglaries and geographical factors in the community, block, Community, streets, and districts on multiple spatial scales of relevance. The difference of correlation coefficient was tested by Wald test. The experimental results show that, with the change of scale, the correlation between some geographical factors and burglary has not changed, while some have changed significantly. These changes can be explained by different scales of criminal geography theory. Finally, the results of multiple scale geographic factors inversion of the spatial distribution of burglaries are synthesized and compared with the results of single scale inversion. The results show that compared with the precision of spatial distribution inversion of crime by single scale geographical factors, it is more accurate to interpret the spatial distribution of crimes by using multi-scale geographical factors. The research shows that environmental criminology theory, geographical factor analysis and spatial distribution inversion of crime all have scale dependence in the study of criminal geography. Synthesizing the results of multiple scales can not only help to understand the geographical factors of crime and its corresponding theory, but also improve the precision of crime inversion.
【作者单位】：南京林业大学土木工程学院;南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室;江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心;警用地理信息技术公安部重点实验室;南京市公安局科技信息化处;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41501488) 江苏省测绘地理信息科研项目(JSCHKY201602) 国家十二五科技支撑计划项目(012BAH35B02) 南京林业大学青年科技创新基金(CX2015007) 警用地理信息技术公安部重点实验室开放课题(2016LPGIT06)~~
【分类号】：D917.3

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