中国转型期流动人口犯罪研究
发布时间：2018-08-06 09:54
【摘要】：社会进步的历史是生产力和生产关系相互作用和发展的历史,也是作为生产力的基本要素和一切生产关系承担者的人口世代更替、人类自身不断延续的历史。人口流动是人口群体的固有特征,流动人口的存在反映了社会经济发展的必然和趋势。 1978年12月,中国进入了由计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制的转变、由封闭型社会向开放型社会转变的转型时期。在转型过程中,日益加快的非农化和城市化进程,形成了大规模的流动人口。根据2005年全国1%人口抽样调查结果显示,2005年时我国人户分离的流动人口已达到了1.4735亿,占全国人口总数的11.28%。 流动人口促进了我国社会经济的发展,改变了长期存在的城乡二元结构,深刻地影响着中国经济和社会的变迁。然而,人口的大量流动也对社会结构和社会秩序形成了冲击,引发了各种社会矛盾和社会冲突。特别是流动人口作为犯罪主体本身的犯罪数量日益增多,犯罪影响日益恶劣,使得我国进入了以流动人口犯罪为标志的新中国建国以来的第五次犯罪高潮时期。 为比较深入地揭示流动人口犯罪的内在规律,本文较多地结合实证数据,探讨了流动人口犯罪群体特征,流动人口犯罪行为方式和刑罚结构,社会经济因素对流动人口犯罪的影响等等。 全文共分九章进行论述。 第一章导论,对研究的背景和方法进行了概括性的介绍。 第二章研究理论基础和相关文献综述。比较全面地介绍了与流动人口犯罪相关的人权理论、人口法学和犯罪社会学等基础理论,概述了目前国内外的相关研究成果,使得本文的研究在这些基础理论的指导下、在相关研究文献的基础上进行。 第三章流动人口管理及犯罪状况的历史回顾。对中国历代流民管理与犯罪防控作了简单介绍,回顾了新中国建国以来各个阶段的流动人口管理政策,并对不同阶段的犯罪状况以及犯罪类型进行了归纳分析。 第四章流动人口犯罪群体特征。这一章采集了比较丰富的全国流动人口犯罪数据,以及上海市、浙江省近三十年历年的流动人口犯罪数据,还选取河南省郑州市中级人民法院和广东省广州市中级人民法院2009年判决、裁定中确定为有罪的被告人为研究样本,对流动人口犯罪群体的规模、结构、行为方式、刑罚处罚特征等进行了比较详细的阐述。 第一节通过对2005年以来全国流动人口犯罪人数,上海市、浙江省改革开放以来的流动人口犯罪数据的分析,阐明了流动人口犯罪呈逐年上升的趋势。 第二节对流动人口犯罪群体的性别、年龄、文化程度构成进行了结构分析。 第三节分析了流动人口犯罪群体的重新犯罪行为、犯罪类型特点和犯罪组织形式,明确了流动人口犯罪的行为特征。 第四节对流动人口犯罪群体的刑罚处罚结构进行了分析,包括判决刑种、判决刑期和缓刑适用等3个方面。 第五节建立了郑州市、广州市按常住人口和流动人口分层的犯罪年龄趋势模型,明确了流动人口犯罪年龄主要集中于19-24岁、年龄趋势曲线具有单峰的性质。 第五章犯罪内生性——异质人群中的权利相对剥夺。这一章共分两节对流动人口犯罪的内生性因素进行了论述。 第一节流动人口与常住人口的人群异质性。通过对流动人口与常住人口的人口自然结构、地域结构和社会结构三个方面的比较,明确了流动人口与常住人口两个不同人群具有异质性的特征。 第二节流动人口权利被相对剥夺。比较流动人口的政治、经济、社会和文化教育等四个方面权利的应然和实然状况,明确了流动人口权利被相对剥夺的范围和程度。 第六章犯罪外生性——动态环境下的社会控制弱化。这一章共分四节论述影响流动人口犯罪的社会经济外部因素。 第一节社会经济的动态化。从经济持续增长、城市化进程加快、人口流动加速三个方面分析了我国转型期社会经济所具有的动态化特征。 第二节纵向控制的弱化过程。从控制组织的结构解体、控制力量减弱、控制人员不足等方面分析了转型期以来我国社会正式控制力的弱化过程。同时,也分析了血缘关系、社会关系等非正式约束力的弱化。 第三节横向控制的位移差异。从省区经济发展不平衡、人口流动分区明显、地方性法规颁布时间差异、公共安全支出地域差异等四个方面分析了横向社会控制存在的省区位移差异。 第四节控制政策的冲击效应。通过犯罪率数据的趋势模拟,分析了转型期以来1983年、1996年、2001年三次“严打”活动对犯罪趋势的影响,肯定了“严打”有效遏制犯罪快速上升趋势的作用。同时还探讨了1992年盗窃罪立案标准变更所引起的犯罪明数变化。 第七章犯罪的生成——内生性和外生性的协同作用。这一章根据数据的不同特征采用了不同的数据分析方法,共分五节对犯罪的生成进行论述。 第一节流动人口犯罪影响因素分析。根据浙江省1980-2009年历年的流动人犯罪人数对全国流动人口犯罪人数进行了估计,在估计数据的基础上建立了流动人口犯罪人数变量与权利相对剥夺指标——城乡居民收入差、经济发展水平指标——人均国民生产总值和社会控制力指标——破案率等变量的多元线性回归模型,在建模过程中进行了模型设定、参数估计、模型检验和模型优化。消除了解释变量的共线性影响后,流动人口犯罪人数表现为权利相对剥夺和社会控制力弱化两个方面相互作用的结果。 第二节流动人口犯罪动态效应分析。在多元线性回归模型优化的基础上,还进行了时间序列数据的单位根检验和协整检验,建立了误差修正模型(ECM)。从而揭示了流动人口犯罪人数的变化具有长期效应和短期效应的变化特性,流动人口犯罪系统具有自修正功能,内生性因素对犯罪的影响存在滞后性。 第三节流动人口犯罪模型验证。用转型期以来我国历年的犯罪率(每10万人刑事案件立案数)为被解释变量,建立犯罪率的多元线性回归模型和误差修正模型,得出犯罪率模型与流动人口犯罪模型具有相同的模型特征,从而验证全国流动人口犯罪人数虽然是估计数据,但在估计数据基础上建立的模型仍具有科学性。 第四节流动人口犯罪省区聚类分析。根据2009年分省区的流动人口犯罪人数、暂住人口、公共安全支出、人均地区生产总值等四个指标,对全国31个省区(不含港澳台)进行聚类分析,31个省区被划分为五类,每个类别内的省区流动人口犯罪特征比较接近,类别间的差异较大。 第五节国际犯罪趋势比较分析。根据2006年世界监狱人口统计的截面数据得出的罪犯人口比例,根据美国、日本自1978年以来历年的犯罪率时间序列数据,分析犯罪率拐点的形成,在对社会经济因素不同的各个国家进行相关分析和比较分析的基础上,预测中国未来的犯罪总体趋势。 首先,对人口超过1000万的72个国家的罪犯人口比率、人均GDP和人文发展指数进行了相关分析。罪犯人口比率与人文发展指数的相关性比较明显,二者之间存在正相关关系,人文发展指数越高,罪犯人口比率也就越大。在显著性水平不高的情况下,罪犯人口比率也与人均GDP相关,人均GDP越高,也就是经济越发展,罪犯人口比率也越大。 其次,分析不同国家在城市化进程不同阶段对犯罪的影响,结果表明犯罪率与城市化率指标不相关。不过在城市化率较低的分组中,随着城市化率的提高,犯罪率也有上升的趋势。 最后,根据美国、日本与中国转型期同期1978-2008年历年的犯罪率数据,分析美国1991年、日本2003年以来犯罪绝对数明显下降的现象,剖析了该时间点前后两个时期的犯罪趋势,肯定了这两个国家犯罪率拐点形成的事实。 第八章流动人口犯罪防控的路径选择。导致流动人口犯罪的因素表现在流动人口权利被相对剥夺和社会控制弱化两个方面。从而在这两方面提出了流动人口犯罪防控的六个具体路径措施：在保障流动人口权益方面,要确立迁徙权、消除流动人口犯罪标签,保障平等权、实现人口群体的融合与共生,强化参与权、畅通流动人口利益表达渠道。在加强社会控制方面,要实施多维约束、宽严相济的综合治理方针,横向分区、纵向分段的区段递进战略,人群流动、空间固化的动态控制模式。 第九章为简短的结语。 流动人口犯罪是一个复杂的社会现象,本文围绕着微观的流动人口群体权利被相对剥夺和宏观的社会控制弱化两个方面,采集了比较丰富的、涵盖中外的犯罪时间序列数据和截面数据,使得整个研究建立在实证数据的基础之上,体现了宏观分析与微观分析相结合、定量分析与定性分析相结合的研究特点,比较深刻地揭示了转型期流动人口犯罪的内在规律性。 由于研究理论的成熟、研究方法的多样和研究数据的丰富使得本文的创新是比较明显的。概括而言,创新点主要体现在以下四个方面： 1、城乡二元结构使得流动人口与常住人口群体成为两个异质群体。流动人口群体权利被相对剥夺对其行为有明显影响,从而对流动人口犯罪的发生起着重要的作用。 2、犯罪群体中的流动人口与常住人口在群体结构、犯罪行为方式,刑罚处罚结构方面都有着明显的不同,建立了常住人口和流动人口犯罪群体年龄趋势模型,明确了流动人口犯罪年龄趋势曲线具有的单峰性质。 3、通过模型分析,进一步确立流动人口犯罪是权利被相对剥夺和社会控制弱化共同作用结果的观点,建立了流动人口犯罪多元线性回归模型和误差修正模型(ECM),比较科学地解释了转型期流动人口犯罪率上升的现象,揭示流动人口犯罪人数的变化具有长期效应和短期效应的特征。 4、转型期社会控制特征表现在纵向弱化和横向差异两个方面：从纵向看,存在控制组织结构解体、控制力量减弱、控制人员不足等社会正式控制力的弱化过程。从横向看,存在省区经济发展不平衡、人口流动分区明显、地方性法规颁布时间差异、公共安全支出地域差异等位移差异。从而提出了加强社会控制的横向分区、纵向分段的区段递进战略的观点。
[Abstract]:The history of social progress is the history of the interaction and development of the productive forces and the relations of production. It is also a history of the population generation, which is the basic element of the productive forces and the bearers of all production relations. The population flow is the inherent characteristic of the population group, and the existence of the flow of population reflects the necessity of the social and economic development. And trend.
In December 1978, China entered the transition period from the planned economy to the socialist market economic system, from the closed society to the open society. In the process of transformation, the increasingly accelerated process of non agricultural and urbanization has formed a large scale of floating population. According to the results of the 1% population sampling survey in 2005, 2 In 005 years, the floating population in China has reached 147 million 350 thousand, accounting for 11.28%. of the total population in China.
The floating population has promoted the social and economic development of our country and changed the long-standing two yuan structure in urban and rural areas, which profoundly affected the economic and social changes in China. However, the mass flow of the population has also formed a impact on the social structure and social order, causing various social contradictions and social conflicts, especially the floating population as a criminal owner. The number of crime in itself is increasing, and the influence of crime is becoming worse and worse, which makes China enter the fifth period of high tide of crime since the founding of new China, marked by the crime of floating population.
In order to further reveal the inherent law of the crime of floating population, this article mainly combines the empirical data to discuss the characteristics of the crime group of the floating population, the mode of criminal behavior and the penalty structure of the floating population, the influence of the social and economic factors on the crime of the floating population and so on.
The full text is divided into nine chapters to discuss.
The first chapter is an introduction, which gives a general introduction to the background and methods of the study.
The second chapter studies the theoretical basis and relevant literature review. It introduces the theory of human rights related to the crime of floating population, the basic theory of population law and the sociology of crime, and summarizes the relevant research results at home and abroad at present, which makes this research work on the basis of these basic theories and on the basis of relevant literature. That's ok.
The third chapter is a historical review of the management of the floating population and the situation of the crime. A brief introduction is made to the management of the refugees and the prevention and control of the crime in the past dynasties. The policy of the management of the floating population in the various stages of the new China since the founding of the people's Republic of China is reviewed, and the criminal status and type of the crime in different stages are summarized and analyzed.
The fourth chapter is the characteristics of the crime group of the floating population. This chapter collects the abundant data of the crime of the floating population in the whole country, and the data of the crime of floating population in Shanghai, Zhejiang Province over the past thirty years. It also selects the 2009 judgment of the intermediate people's court of Zhengzhou city of Henan province and the intermediate people's Court of Guangzhou in Guangdong Province, which is determined to be guilty in the ruling. The defendant is the research sample. The scale, structure, behavior and penalty characteristics of the floating population criminal groups are elaborated in detail.
The first section clarifies that the crime of floating population has been increasing year by year through the analysis of the crime data of floating population since 2005, Shanghai and Zhejiang province since the reform and opening up since 2005.
The second section makes a structural analysis of the gender, age and educational level of the floating population.
The third section analyzes the criminal group's recidivism, the characteristics of crime types and the forms of criminal organization, and clarifies the behavior characteristics of floating population crime.
Section 4 analyzes the penalty structure of the floating population criminal groups, including the types of sentences, sentences and probation.
The fifth section established a crime age trend model in Zhengzhou city and Guangzhou city according to the stratification of the resident population and the floating population. It is clear that the age of the crime of the floating population is mainly concentrated at the age of 19-24, and the curve of the age trend has the character of single peak.
Chapter five is endogenous crime-relative deprivation of rights among heterogeneous groups. This chapter is divided into two sections to discuss the endogenous factors of floating population crime.
The first section is the heterogeneity of the population of the floating population and the permanent population. Through the comparison of the three aspects of the natural structure, the regional structure and the social structure of the floating population and the permanent population, the characteristics of the heterogeneity of the two different populations of the floating population and the permanent population are clearly defined.
In the second section, the rights of the floating population are relatively deprived. To compare the right and actual conditions of the four rights in the political, economic, social and cultural education of the floating population, the scope and extent of the relative deprivation of the rights of the floating population are clearly defined.
Chapter 6: Externality of crime - weakening of social control in dynamic environment. This chapter is divided into four sections to discuss the social and economic external factors affecting the crime of floating population.
In the first section, the dynamic characteristics of the social economy are analyzed from three aspects: the sustained economic growth, the accelerated urbanization process and the acceleration of the population flow.
The weakening process of the second section of longitudinal control is analyzed from the aspects of the disintegration of the structure of the control organization, the weakening of the control force and the shortage of the control personnel. At the same time, the weakening of the informal binding force, such as blood relationship and social relations, is also analyzed.
In the third section, the difference in displacement of lateral control is analyzed from four aspects, such as the unbalanced economic development, the obvious population flow division, the time difference of local regulations and the regional difference of public safety expenditure.
The fourth section controls the impact of the policy. Through the trend simulation of the crime rate data, this paper analyzes the influence of the three "severe attacks" on the crime trend in 1983, 1996 and 2001, and affirms the role of "severe fighting" to effectively curb the fast rising trend of crime. Meanwhile, it also discusses the changes in the standard of the crime of theft in 1992. Changes in the number of crimes.
The seventh chapter is the formation of crime - the synergy of endogeneity and exogeny. This chapter adopts different data analysis methods according to the different characteristics of the data, which is divided into five sections to discuss the formation of crime.
The first section analysis of the influencing factors of the crime of floating population. According to the number of criminals in the 1980-2009 years in Zhejiang Province, the number of criminals in the country is estimated. On the basis of the estimated data, the relative deprivation index of the number of criminals in the floating population and the relative deprivation of rights - the income difference between urban and rural residents and the index of economic development level The multiple linear regression model of the per capita gross national product and social control index, such as the rate of breaking the case rate, has been set up in the process of modeling, parameter estimation, model test and model optimization. After eliminating the collinear influence of the explanatory variables, the number of crimes committed by the floating population represents the relative deprivation of rights and the social control. The results of the interaction between the two aspects are weakened.
On the basis of the optimization of the multiple linear regression model, the unit root test and cointegration test of the time series data are carried out on the basis of the multiple linear regression model. The error correction model (ECM) is established, which reveals that the change of the number of criminals in the floating population has the changing characteristics of the long term effect and the short-term effect, the floating population. The criminal system has the function of self correction, and the influence of endogenous factors on crime is lagging behind.
The third section of the mobile population crime model proves that the crime rate in our country since the transition period (the number of criminal cases per 100 thousand people) is interpreted as the variable, and establishes the multiple linear regression model and the error correction model of the crime rate, and concludes that the crime rate model has the same model characteristics with the mobile population crime model, thus verifying the national flow. Although the number of population offenders is estimated data, the model established on the basis of estimated data is still scientific.
The fourth section of the floating population crime provincial cluster analysis. According to the number of criminals in the provinces, the temporary population, the public safety expenditure and the per capita GDP in 2009, the cluster analysis of the 31 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) is carried out in 31 provinces of the country, and the 31 provinces are divided into five categories, and the crime of the floating population in the provinces and regions in each category is special. The signs are close, and the difference between the categories is larger.
The fifth section of international crime trend analysis. According to the cross-sectional data of the 2006 World prison population statistics, the proportion of the criminal population is analyzed. According to the data of the time series of crime rate in the United States and Japan since 1978, the formation of the crime rate inflection point is analyzed, and the related analysis and comparison of various countries with different social and economic factors are analyzed and compared. Based on the analysis, the general trend of China's future crime is predicted.
First, the ratio of the criminal population, the per capita GDP and the human development index of the 72 countries with a population of more than 10 million are analyzed. The correlation between the ratio of the criminal population and the human development index is more obvious, and there is a positive correlation between the two, the higher the human development index, the greater the ratio of the offender's population. The significant level is not high. Under the circumstances, the ratio of criminals' population is also related to GDP per capita. The higher the per capita GDP, the greater the economic development, the greater the ratio of criminals.
Secondly, the influence of different countries on crime in different stages of urbanization is analyzed. The result shows that the crime rate is not related to the index of urbanization rate. However, in the lower urbanization rate group, with the increase of urbanization rate, the crime rate also has a rising trend.
Finally, according to the data of the 1978-2008 years' crime rate in the United States, Japan and China during the same period of the period of transition, the phenomenon of the absolute decline in the absolute number of crimes in the United States in 1991 and Japan since 2003 is analyzed. The crime trend in the two periods before and after the time point is analyzed, and the facts of the turning point of the two countries' crime rate have been affirmed.
The eighth chapter is the path choice for the crime prevention and control of the floating population. The factors that lead to the crime of the floating population are manifested in two aspects: the relative deprivation of the rights of the floating population and the weakening of the social control. Thus, the six concrete measures for the crime prevention and control of the floating population are put forward in these two aspects: to establish the right of migration to protect the rights and interests of the flow of population and to establish the right to migrate. In addition to the crime label of the floating population, the protection of the equal rights, the integration and symbiosis of the population group, the strengthening of the right of participation and the smooth flow of the expression channels for the interest of the floating population. In the aspect of strengthening social control, the multidimensional constraints, the comprehensive management policy of tempering and the leniency, the progressive strategy of the horizontal section and the longitudinal section, the movement of the crowd and the dynamic space solidification Control mode.
The ninth chapter is a brief conclusion.
The crime of floating population is a complicated social phenomenon. In this paper, there are two aspects about the relative deprivation of the rights of the floating population and the weakening of the macro social control, which are rich in collecting the data of the time series and cross section of the crime in China and abroad, making the whole Research Based on the empirical data. The characteristics of the combination of macro analysis and microanalysis, quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis have revealed the inherent regularity of the crime of floating population in the transition period.
Because of the maturity of the research theory, the diversity of research methods and the abundance of research data, the innovation of this paper is more obvious. In summary, the innovation points are mainly reflected in the following four aspects:
1, the two yuan structure in urban and rural areas makes the floating population and the permanent population group become two heterogeneous groups. The relative deprivation of the rights of the floating population has an obvious influence on its behavior, which plays an important role in the occurrence of the crime of the floating population.
2, there are obvious differences between the floating population and the permanent population in the group structure, the way of criminal behavior and the structure of punishment and punishment. The age trend model of the permanent and floating population is established, and the single peak character of the trend curve of the crime age of the floating population is clearly defined.
3, through model analysis, we further establish that floating population crime is a relative deprivation of rights.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：D917
[Abstract]:The history of social progress is the history of the interaction and development of the productive forces and the relations of production. It is also a history of the population generation, which is the basic element of the productive forces and the bearers of all production relations. The population flow is the inherent characteristic of the population group, and the existence of the flow of population reflects the necessity of the social and economic development. And trend.
In December 1978, China entered the transition period from the planned economy to the socialist market economic system, from the closed society to the open society. In the process of transformation, the increasingly accelerated process of non agricultural and urbanization has formed a large scale of floating population. According to the results of the 1% population sampling survey in 2005, 2 In 005 years, the floating population in China has reached 147 million 350 thousand, accounting for 11.28%. of the total population in China.
The floating population has promoted the social and economic development of our country and changed the long-standing two yuan structure in urban and rural areas, which profoundly affected the economic and social changes in China. However, the mass flow of the population has also formed a impact on the social structure and social order, causing various social contradictions and social conflicts, especially the floating population as a criminal owner. The number of crime in itself is increasing, and the influence of crime is becoming worse and worse, which makes China enter the fifth period of high tide of crime since the founding of new China, marked by the crime of floating population.
In order to further reveal the inherent law of the crime of floating population, this article mainly combines the empirical data to discuss the characteristics of the crime group of the floating population, the mode of criminal behavior and the penalty structure of the floating population, the influence of the social and economic factors on the crime of the floating population and so on.
The full text is divided into nine chapters to discuss.
The first chapter is an introduction, which gives a general introduction to the background and methods of the study.
The second chapter studies the theoretical basis and relevant literature review. It introduces the theory of human rights related to the crime of floating population, the basic theory of population law and the sociology of crime, and summarizes the relevant research results at home and abroad at present, which makes this research work on the basis of these basic theories and on the basis of relevant literature. That's ok.
The third chapter is a historical review of the management of the floating population and the situation of the crime. A brief introduction is made to the management of the refugees and the prevention and control of the crime in the past dynasties. The policy of the management of the floating population in the various stages of the new China since the founding of the people's Republic of China is reviewed, and the criminal status and type of the crime in different stages are summarized and analyzed.
The fourth chapter is the characteristics of the crime group of the floating population. This chapter collects the abundant data of the crime of the floating population in the whole country, and the data of the crime of floating population in Shanghai, Zhejiang Province over the past thirty years. It also selects the 2009 judgment of the intermediate people's court of Zhengzhou city of Henan province and the intermediate people's Court of Guangzhou in Guangdong Province, which is determined to be guilty in the ruling. The defendant is the research sample. The scale, structure, behavior and penalty characteristics of the floating population criminal groups are elaborated in detail.
The first section clarifies that the crime of floating population has been increasing year by year through the analysis of the crime data of floating population since 2005, Shanghai and Zhejiang province since the reform and opening up since 2005.
The second section makes a structural analysis of the gender, age and educational level of the floating population.
The third section analyzes the criminal group's recidivism, the characteristics of crime types and the forms of criminal organization, and clarifies the behavior characteristics of floating population crime.
Section 4 analyzes the penalty structure of the floating population criminal groups, including the types of sentences, sentences and probation.
The fifth section established a crime age trend model in Zhengzhou city and Guangzhou city according to the stratification of the resident population and the floating population. It is clear that the age of the crime of the floating population is mainly concentrated at the age of 19-24, and the curve of the age trend has the character of single peak.
Chapter five is endogenous crime-relative deprivation of rights among heterogeneous groups. This chapter is divided into two sections to discuss the endogenous factors of floating population crime.
The first section is the heterogeneity of the population of the floating population and the permanent population. Through the comparison of the three aspects of the natural structure, the regional structure and the social structure of the floating population and the permanent population, the characteristics of the heterogeneity of the two different populations of the floating population and the permanent population are clearly defined.
In the second section, the rights of the floating population are relatively deprived. To compare the right and actual conditions of the four rights in the political, economic, social and cultural education of the floating population, the scope and extent of the relative deprivation of the rights of the floating population are clearly defined.
Chapter 6: Externality of crime - weakening of social control in dynamic environment. This chapter is divided into four sections to discuss the social and economic external factors affecting the crime of floating population.
In the first section, the dynamic characteristics of the social economy are analyzed from three aspects: the sustained economic growth, the accelerated urbanization process and the acceleration of the population flow.
The weakening process of the second section of longitudinal control is analyzed from the aspects of the disintegration of the structure of the control organization, the weakening of the control force and the shortage of the control personnel. At the same time, the weakening of the informal binding force, such as blood relationship and social relations, is also analyzed.
In the third section, the difference in displacement of lateral control is analyzed from four aspects, such as the unbalanced economic development, the obvious population flow division, the time difference of local regulations and the regional difference of public safety expenditure.
The fourth section controls the impact of the policy. Through the trend simulation of the crime rate data, this paper analyzes the influence of the three "severe attacks" on the crime trend in 1983, 1996 and 2001, and affirms the role of "severe fighting" to effectively curb the fast rising trend of crime. Meanwhile, it also discusses the changes in the standard of the crime of theft in 1992. Changes in the number of crimes.
The seventh chapter is the formation of crime - the synergy of endogeneity and exogeny. This chapter adopts different data analysis methods according to the different characteristics of the data, which is divided into five sections to discuss the formation of crime.
The first section analysis of the influencing factors of the crime of floating population. According to the number of criminals in the 1980-2009 years in Zhejiang Province, the number of criminals in the country is estimated. On the basis of the estimated data, the relative deprivation index of the number of criminals in the floating population and the relative deprivation of rights - the income difference between urban and rural residents and the index of economic development level The multiple linear regression model of the per capita gross national product and social control index, such as the rate of breaking the case rate, has been set up in the process of modeling, parameter estimation, model test and model optimization. After eliminating the collinear influence of the explanatory variables, the number of crimes committed by the floating population represents the relative deprivation of rights and the social control. The results of the interaction between the two aspects are weakened.
On the basis of the optimization of the multiple linear regression model, the unit root test and cointegration test of the time series data are carried out on the basis of the multiple linear regression model. The error correction model (ECM) is established, which reveals that the change of the number of criminals in the floating population has the changing characteristics of the long term effect and the short-term effect, the floating population. The criminal system has the function of self correction, and the influence of endogenous factors on crime is lagging behind.
The third section of the mobile population crime model proves that the crime rate in our country since the transition period (the number of criminal cases per 100 thousand people) is interpreted as the variable, and establishes the multiple linear regression model and the error correction model of the crime rate, and concludes that the crime rate model has the same model characteristics with the mobile population crime model, thus verifying the national flow. Although the number of population offenders is estimated data, the model established on the basis of estimated data is still scientific.
The fourth section of the floating population crime provincial cluster analysis. According to the number of criminals in the provinces, the temporary population, the public safety expenditure and the per capita GDP in 2009, the cluster analysis of the 31 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) is carried out in 31 provinces of the country, and the 31 provinces are divided into five categories, and the crime of the floating population in the provinces and regions in each category is special. The signs are close, and the difference between the categories is larger.
The fifth section of international crime trend analysis. According to the cross-sectional data of the 2006 World prison population statistics, the proportion of the criminal population is analyzed. According to the data of the time series of crime rate in the United States and Japan since 1978, the formation of the crime rate inflection point is analyzed, and the related analysis and comparison of various countries with different social and economic factors are analyzed and compared. Based on the analysis, the general trend of China's future crime is predicted.
First, the ratio of the criminal population, the per capita GDP and the human development index of the 72 countries with a population of more than 10 million are analyzed. The correlation between the ratio of the criminal population and the human development index is more obvious, and there is a positive correlation between the two, the higher the human development index, the greater the ratio of the offender's population. The significant level is not high. Under the circumstances, the ratio of criminals' population is also related to GDP per capita. The higher the per capita GDP, the greater the economic development, the greater the ratio of criminals.
Secondly, the influence of different countries on crime in different stages of urbanization is analyzed. The result shows that the crime rate is not related to the index of urbanization rate. However, in the lower urbanization rate group, with the increase of urbanization rate, the crime rate also has a rising trend.
Finally, according to the data of the 1978-2008 years' crime rate in the United States, Japan and China during the same period of the period of transition, the phenomenon of the absolute decline in the absolute number of crimes in the United States in 1991 and Japan since 2003 is analyzed. The crime trend in the two periods before and after the time point is analyzed, and the facts of the turning point of the two countries' crime rate have been affirmed.
The eighth chapter is the path choice for the crime prevention and control of the floating population. The factors that lead to the crime of the floating population are manifested in two aspects: the relative deprivation of the rights of the floating population and the weakening of the social control. Thus, the six concrete measures for the crime prevention and control of the floating population are put forward in these two aspects: to establish the right of migration to protect the rights and interests of the flow of population and to establish the right to migrate. In addition to the crime label of the floating population, the protection of the equal rights, the integration and symbiosis of the population group, the strengthening of the right of participation and the smooth flow of the expression channels for the interest of the floating population. In the aspect of strengthening social control, the multidimensional constraints, the comprehensive management policy of tempering and the leniency, the progressive strategy of the horizontal section and the longitudinal section, the movement of the crowd and the dynamic space solidification Control mode.
The ninth chapter is a brief conclusion.
The crime of floating population is a complicated social phenomenon. In this paper, there are two aspects about the relative deprivation of the rights of the floating population and the weakening of the macro social control, which are rich in collecting the data of the time series and cross section of the crime in China and abroad, making the whole Research Based on the empirical data. The characteristics of the combination of macro analysis and microanalysis, quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis have revealed the inherent regularity of the crime of floating population in the transition period.
Because of the maturity of the research theory, the diversity of research methods and the abundance of research data, the innovation of this paper is more obvious. In summary, the innovation points are mainly reflected in the following four aspects:
1, the two yuan structure in urban and rural areas makes the floating population and the permanent population group become two heterogeneous groups. The relative deprivation of the rights of the floating population has an obvious influence on its behavior, which plays an important role in the occurrence of the crime of the floating population.
2, there are obvious differences between the floating population and the permanent population in the group structure, the way of criminal behavior and the structure of punishment and punishment. The age trend model of the permanent and floating population is established, and the single peak character of the trend curve of the crime age of the floating population is clearly defined.
3, through model analysis, we further establish that floating population crime is a relative deprivation of rights.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：D917
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