群体性冲突极端化的演化行为研究

发布时间：2018-08-27 06:29

【摘要】：近年来,随着经济社会的快速发展,国内各地一批批涉及群众切身利益的项目相继开建,因征地拆迁、环境问题等原因引发的群体性冲突极端化频繁发生。例如“9.21”乌坎村事件(2011年)、江苏启东事件(2012年)、郑州“3.21”强拆事件(2015年)等。当这些群体性冲突极端化发生时,往往会造成社会秩序的混乱、财产遭到损失等严重后果。因此,研究群体性冲突极端化的演化行为,可以得知群体性冲突极端化的演变规律及相关因素对演化行为的影响,预防群体性冲突极端化的出现,具有较强的理论和实践意义。基于以上的考虑,本文在系统地梳理了相关文献和案例的基础上,以群体性冲突极端化行为为研究背景,采用博弈论与等级依赖期望效用理论,分析了其演化行为的规律。论文首先运用多案例分析与结构化描述框架得出了群体性冲突极端化的一般化结构化描述框架。在生命周期理论和案例的梳理分析的基础上,得出了群体性冲突极端化的演化过程概念模型,该模型将群体性冲突极端化的过程划分为了潜伏、酝酿、爆发、扩散与平息五个阶段。其次,通过文献计量学方法,得出了影响群体性冲突极端化行为的16个因素,并通过模糊集DEMATEL方法确定了影响群体性冲突极端化行为的关键因素,这些关键因素为群体情绪的激化、谣言的传播、事件的危害性、信息的公开性、政府应急处置的效率和政府应急处置的效果。再次,根据影响群体性冲突极端化的关键因素,运用演化博弈论模型着重分析了信息传播对群体性冲突极端化演化行为的影响。结果表明在信息传播初期,政府部门采取信息引导措施,有利于预防群体性冲突极端化的不断升级;在信息传播的中后期,虽然政府部门采取信息引导措施产生的效果不如初期显著,有可能还会造成弱势群体行为的震荡,但是加强信息引导措施,仍可以使参与者的极端化行为趋于均衡。接着,根据影响群体性冲突极端化的关键因素,通过构建了考虑情绪因素的强势群体-弱势群体的RDEU博弈模型着重分析了群体情绪的激化对群体性冲突极端化演化行为的影响。研究结果表明参与者的悲观情绪增加了群体性冲突极端化中参与者群体采取极端行为的可能性,并结合四川什邡事件具体解释了所构建模型的研究结果。最后,结合影响群体性冲突极端化行为的因素以及信息传播、群体情绪的激化对群体性冲突极端化行为演化的影响,提出了防控与消减群体性冲突极端化行为的对策及建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of economy and society, lots of projects involving the vital interests of the masses have been built one after another, and the group conflicts caused by land requisition and demolition, environmental problems and other reasons frequently occur. For example, "9.21" Wukan Village incident (2011), Jiangsu Qidong incident (2012), Zhengzhou "3.21" forced demolition event (2015) and so on. When these group conflicts take place, they often lead to the chaos of social order and the loss of property. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the evolution behavior of group conflict extremism, to know the evolution law of group conflict and the influence of relevant factors on the evolution behavior, and to prevent the emergence of group conflict extremism. Based on the above considerations, this paper systematically combs the relevant literature and cases, taking the extreme behavior of group conflict as the background, and analyzes the law of its evolutionary behavior by using the game theory and the expected utility theory of rank dependence. In this paper, a general structured description framework of group conflict extremes is proposed by using multi-case analysis and structured description framework. On the basis of combing and analyzing the life cycle theory and cases, this paper presents a conceptual model of the evolution process of group conflict, which divides the extreme process of group conflict into latent, brewing and breaking out. There are five stages of diffusion and pacification. Secondly, through bibliometrics, 16 factors affecting the extreme behavior of group conflict are obtained, and the key factors influencing the extreme behavior of group conflict are determined by fuzzy set DEMATEL method. These key factors are the aggravation of group emotion, the spread of rumors, the harmfulness of events, the openness of information, the efficiency of government emergency disposal and the effect of government emergency disposal. Thirdly, according to the key factors affecting the extreme of group conflict, the influence of information dissemination on the extreme evolution behavior of group conflict is analyzed by using evolutionary game theory model. The results show that in the early stage of information dissemination, government departments take information guidance measures to prevent the continuous escalation of group conflicts, and in the middle and late stages of information dissemination, Although the effect of the information guidance measures taken by the government is not as obvious as that of the initial stage, it may also cause the shock of the behavior of the vulnerable groups, but strengthening the information guidance measures can still make the extreme behavior of the participants tend to be balanced. Then, according to the key factors that affect the extreme of group conflict, the RDEU game model of strong group-weak group considering emotional factors is constructed to analyze the influence of the intensification of group emotion on the extreme evolution behavior of group conflict. The results show that the pessimism of the participants increases the possibility of the participants taking extreme behaviors in the extreme of group conflict and explains the results of the model in combination with the Shifang incident in Sichuan Province. Finally, combined with the factors affecting the extreme behavior of group conflict and the influence of information dissemination and the aggravation of group emotion on the evolution of group conflict extreme behavior, the countermeasures and suggestions to prevent and control and subtract the extreme behavior of group conflict are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D631.43

【参考文献】