基于AHP-Apriori改进算法在“两抢”犯罪因素分析中的研究

发布时间：2018-10-19 14:03

【摘要】：随着公安部门信息化建设的不断发展和多年的工作实践,公安信息中心积累了大量的犯罪数据。然而,目前公安部门在对已经存在的犯罪数据使用方面,很多时候只停留在传统的简单查询、统计等功能上。和传统数据分析的技术相比较,数据挖掘技术可以从已有的犯罪数据中提取隐藏的规律和趋势。因此,如何利用数据挖掘技术实现对犯罪各类影响因素进行分析,是目前公安系统迫切需要研究的一个课题。“两抢”犯罪是对社会治安影响较大的多发性案件,它随时危害了公民的生命财产安全,所以减少案件的频发是公安机关的一项重要任务。犯罪的产生受由各种因素共同支配,也是各影响因素相互作用的综合结果。如果能够发现蕴含在犯罪数据中的规律,提前做好治安防控的预防措施,就能降低犯罪率。本文尝试将AHP和Apriori关联规则算法结合应用到犯罪影响因素的分析,试图从中获得一些犯罪发生的原因,为犯罪的预防和教育提供有价值的信息,因此在治安防控上具有研究的价值和现实意义。本文首先提出“两抢”犯罪影响的四大因素:个人因素、社会因素、时间因素和空间因素,并且分析出四大因素对犯罪的影响。然后详细阐述了AHP和Apriori关联规则算法的思想和实现过程。最后针对Apriori算法不能进行多层次关联性分析的不足和无法判断事务性重要度的缺陷,结合AHP层次分析法进行多层次分析并进行加权,得到犯罪影响因素的权值和关联规则。并从结果分析出“两抢”犯罪影响因素的一些规律和特点,为治安防控提供新的方向。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of the information construction of public security department and the practice of many years, the public security information center has accumulated a large amount of crime data. However, at present, the public security departments in the use of existing crime data, many times only stay in the traditional simple query, statistics and other functions. Compared with traditional data analysis techniques, data mining technology can extract hidden laws and trends from existing crime data. Therefore, how to use data mining technology to analyze all kinds of factors affecting crime is an urgent need to be studied in public security system. The crime of "two robberies" is a multiple case which has a great influence on public security. It endangers the life and property of citizens at any time, so reducing the frequent occurrence of cases is an important task of the public security organs. The emergence of crime is controlled by various factors, and it is also the comprehensive result of the interaction of various factors. If we can find the law contained in the crime data and take preventive measures in advance, we can reduce the crime rate. This paper attempts to apply AHP and Apriori association rules algorithm to the analysis of the influencing factors of crime, and try to obtain some causes of crime and provide valuable information for crime prevention and education. Therefore, in the public security prevention and control has the value of research and practical significance. This paper first puts forward four factors that influence the crime of "two robberies": personal factor, social factor, time factor and space factor, and analyzes the influence of four factors on crime. Then, the idea and implementation process of AHP and Apriori association rule algorithm are described in detail. Finally, aiming at the deficiency of Apriori algorithm which can not carry out multi-level correlation analysis and cannot judge the transactional importance, combining with AHP analytic hierarchy process to carry out multi-level analysis and weighting, the weights and association rules of the influencing factors of crime are obtained. Some laws and characteristics of the influencing factors of "two robberies" crime are analyzed from the result, which provides a new direction for the prevention and control of public security.
【学位授予单位】：江西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TP311.13;D917.9

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