最优城市规模与特大城市户籍管制的自增强机制

发布时间：2018-12-14 05:20

【摘要】：人口500万以上的特大城市为了缓解其综合承载压力,倾向于通过严格的户籍管制政策控制人口规模,但在现实中,特大城市却存在着"落户越来越严、人口越控越多"的现象。基于最优城市规模理论,提出了特大城市户籍管制的自增强机制,并分析了其形成过程。研究发现,严格的户籍管制政策在降低特大城市排他性公共品拥挤成本的同时,并未改变城市人口增长带来的规模收益,这使得城市边际规模收益和边际拥挤成本相等时的最优规模理论值增大,城市人口倾向于进一步增多,最终导致户籍管制更加严格。利用286个地级市的数据对户籍管制的自增强机制进行实证分析发现:加强户籍管制不利于中小城市收入提高,有利于大城市和特大城市收入提高,人口规模越大的城市越具有加强户籍管制的倾向;户籍管制程度的提高使城市人均收入与人口规模之间倒U型曲线的顶点位置右移,因而提升了特大城市的最优人口规模水平,进一步促进了人口的流入。大多数特大城市在严格的户籍管制下,其实际人口规模仍未达到最优人口规模理论值,依然存在人口进一步增多的倾向。户籍管制的自增强机制的政策含义是:当前,中国的特大城市已经陷入了户籍管制增强与城市人口增多的恶性循环之中,通过严格的户籍管制控制城市人口规模的政策是无效的,进一步放开落户限制反而是特大城市疏解人口的有效途径;同时,应通过提高中小城市非排他性公共品供给水平引导新增非户籍人口有序转移,最终使特大城市退出户籍管制的自增强机制。
[Abstract]:In order to relieve the pressure of comprehensive carrying capacity, megacities with a population of more than 5 million tend to control the population size through strict household registration control policy, but in reality, the phenomenon of "more and more residents and more population control" exists in the mega-cities. Based on the theory of optimal urban scale, this paper puts forward the self-reinforcing mechanism of household registration control in mega-cities and analyzes its forming process. The study found that strict household registration control policies have not changed the scale benefits of urban population growth while reducing the crowded cost of exclusive public goods in mega-cities. This makes the theoretical value of optimal scale increase when the marginal scale income and marginal congestion cost are equal, and the urban population tends to increase further, resulting in more strict household registration control. Based on the data of 286 prefecture-level cities, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the self-enhancement mechanism of household registration control. It is found that the strengthening of household registration control is not conducive to the increase of income in small and medium-sized cities, but also to the increase of income in large cities and mega-cities. Cities with larger population size have the tendency to strengthen household registration control; The increase of household registration control makes the peak position of the inverted U-shaped curve between urban per capita income and population scale move to the right, thus raising the level of optimal population scale in mega-cities and further promoting the inflow of population. Under strict household registration control, the actual population size of most megacities is still not up to the theoretical value of optimal population size, and there is still a tendency to increase the population further. The policy implication of the self-reinforcing mechanism of household registration control is that, at present, China's mega-cities have been caught in a vicious circle of increased household registration control and an increase in urban population. The policy of controlling the size of urban population through strict household registration control is ineffective, but further liberalizing the restrictions of residence is an effective way to solve the population of megacities. At the same time, it is necessary to improve the supply level of non-exclusive public goods in small and medium-sized cities to guide the orderly transfer of newly added non-registered residents, and finally to make the megacities withdraw from the self-reinforcing mechanism of household registration control.
【作者单位】：中共中央党校经济学教研部;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“农民工市民化进程中制度冲突与协调问题研究”(批准号:15CJL033)
【分类号】：D631.42

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