影响犯罪率的社会经济因素分析
发布时间：2018-12-15 23:46
【摘要】：本文的主要理论观点为贝克尔的主观预期效用理论,运用该理论从经济学的角度来分析犯罪行为,从犯罪者的角度,考虑犯罪所需的成本与所得的利益,再根据犯罪威慑理论,结合实际数据来探讨社会、经济等因素的变动对刑事案件、盗窃犯罪及暴力犯罪等三种犯罪类型发生率的影响。 本文以1985-2008年辽宁省十三个市的统计数据为分析对象,通过构造数学模型来处理分析数据,并在得出结论后加以验证。 经研究发现：人均警务支出和失业率与三种犯罪类型的发生率均有正相关,而离婚率仅与刑事案件发生率及盗窃犯罪发生率有正相关。另外,案件破获率则与三种犯罪类型的发生率有着负相关。至于起诉率、吉尼系数、人口密度及人均可支配所得这几个因素,则因犯罪类型的不同而对犯罪发生率的影响有所不同。 最后,本文希望换一个角度来探究犯罪行为,根据研究所得的结果提出相应的建议,为有关单位在对待相关问题时提供参考。
[Abstract]:The main theoretical viewpoint of this paper is Becker's subjective expected utility theory, which is used to analyze the criminal behavior from the angle of economics, from the angle of the offender, to consider the necessary cost and benefit of the crime, and then according to the theory of criminal deterrence. This paper discusses the influence of the change of social and economic factors on the incidence of criminal cases, theft crimes and violent crimes. Taking the statistical data of 13 cities in Liaoning Province from 1985 to 2008 as the analysis object, this paper constructs a mathematical model to deal with the analysis data and verifies them after reaching a conclusion. It is found that the police expenditure and unemployment rate per capita are all positively correlated with the incidence of the three types of crimes, while the divorce rate is only positively correlated with the incidence of criminal cases and the crime of theft. In addition, the rate of case detection is negatively correlated with the incidence of the three types of crime. As for the prosecution rate, Gini coefficient, population density and disposable income per capita, these factors have different effects on the incidence of crime according to the different types of crime. Finally, this article hopes to change a new angle to explore the criminal behavior, according to the results of the study put forward the corresponding suggestions, for the relevant units in the treatment of related issues to provide a reference.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：D917.1
本文编号：2381483
[Abstract]:The main theoretical viewpoint of this paper is Becker's subjective expected utility theory, which is used to analyze the criminal behavior from the angle of economics, from the angle of the offender, to consider the necessary cost and benefit of the crime, and then according to the theory of criminal deterrence. This paper discusses the influence of the change of social and economic factors on the incidence of criminal cases, theft crimes and violent crimes. Taking the statistical data of 13 cities in Liaoning Province from 1985 to 2008 as the analysis object, this paper constructs a mathematical model to deal with the analysis data and verifies them after reaching a conclusion. It is found that the police expenditure and unemployment rate per capita are all positively correlated with the incidence of the three types of crimes, while the divorce rate is only positively correlated with the incidence of criminal cases and the crime of theft. In addition, the rate of case detection is negatively correlated with the incidence of the three types of crime. As for the prosecution rate, Gini coefficient, population density and disposable income per capita, these factors have different effects on the incidence of crime according to the different types of crime. Finally, this article hopes to change a new angle to explore the criminal behavior, according to the results of the study put forward the corresponding suggestions, for the relevant units in the treatment of related issues to provide a reference.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：D917.1
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相关期刊论文 前4条
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