基于证据理论的安全防范系统评估与优化设计
发布时间：2018-12-16 10:29
【摘要】：安全防范系统在我们的生活中已经无处不在,但是由于缺乏有效的安全防范系统风险评估方法及优化设计手段,目前国内大多数安全防范系统只是对安防产品的简单组合和主观布局,容易出现过度保护或者重点区域保护不足等问题。建立一套完整、量化的安全防范系统评估和优化设计方法是我国安防领域中的一个核心问题。本文将证据理论应用到安全防范系统的风险评估和优化设计中,结合示例模型说明了方法的具体流程,主要创新性研究成果如下:(1)首次将证据理论系统地应用到安全防范系统的风险评估过程中,提出了一套基于信息融合思想的较为完整的评估方法。对安全防范系统进行了二维平面建模,能够更加有效地刻画系统结构信息;对平面点的多部件风险信息进行融合,得到最终风险信息,可有效表征该点所受到的综合防护;且评估结果能够实现直观的三维可视化。(2)首次使用证据函数(BPA)来表达平面点的风险信息,能够更好地处理“不确定”和“不知道”的情况,减少了信息损失。提出了三种BPA生成模型,基于正态分布的生成模型、基于高斯过程回归的无参生成模型和基于隶属度的生成模型。特别是第三种模型为系统人员提供了一种自定义威胁度生成策略的途径,再将威胁度结合隶属度函数生成BPA。(3)文中提出了两种将BPA转化为概率的方法,用于实现风险评估的概率式决策,包括基于证据关联系数的概率转换方法和基于冲突系数的概率转换方法,通过算例将它们与经典的赌博概率转换方法进行比较并给出相应的使用建议。(4)针对安全防范系统的最优化设计问题,提出了最优化问题的构建方法和求解方案,将DIRECT算法和遗传算法结合起来,优势互补。能够求解固定资源条件下系统部件的最佳布局,最大程度发挥系统的防范效能,有利于提高系统的成本-效益比。
[Abstract]:Security prevention systems are everywhere in our lives, but due to the lack of effective risk assessment methods and optimization design methods, At present, most of the domestic security prevention systems are only a simple combination and subjective layout of security products, which are prone to over-protection or insufficient protection in key areas. It is a core problem in the field of security in China to establish a set of complete and quantitative methods for evaluating and optimizing the security system. In this paper, the evidence theory is applied to the risk assessment and optimization design of the security prevention system, and the concrete flow of the method is illustrated with an example model. The main innovative research results are as follows: (1) for the first time, the evidence theory is systematically applied to the risk assessment process of the security prevention system, and a set of relatively complete evaluation methods based on the idea of information fusion are proposed. The two-dimensional plane modeling of the security prevention system can describe the system structure information more effectively, and the multi-component risk information of the plane point can be fused to obtain the final risk information, which can effectively represent the comprehensive protection of the point. The evaluation results can be visualized intuitively. (2) for the first time, the evidence function (BPA) is used to express the risk information of planar points, which can better deal with the situation of "uncertainty" and "not knowing" and reduce the loss of information. Three kinds of BPA generation models are proposed, which are based on normal distribution, non-parametric generation model based on Gao Si process regression and generating model based on membership degree. In particular, the third model provides a way for system personnel to create a self-defined threat degree strategy. Then, two methods of transforming BPA into probability are proposed in this paper, which combines threat degree with membership function to generate BPA. (3). Probabilistic decision-making for risk assessment, including probabilistic conversion methods based on evidence correlation coefficients and conflict coefficients, By comparing them with the classical gambling probability conversion method, the corresponding suggestions are given. (4) for the optimization design problem of the security prevention system, the construction method and the solution scheme of the optimization problem are proposed. DIRECT algorithm and genetic algorithm are combined to complement each other. It can solve the optimal layout of system components under the condition of fixed resources, maximize the effectiveness of the system, and improve the cost-benefit ratio of the system.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TP202;D918.2
，
本文编号：2382190
[Abstract]:Security prevention systems are everywhere in our lives, but due to the lack of effective risk assessment methods and optimization design methods, At present, most of the domestic security prevention systems are only a simple combination and subjective layout of security products, which are prone to over-protection or insufficient protection in key areas. It is a core problem in the field of security in China to establish a set of complete and quantitative methods for evaluating and optimizing the security system. In this paper, the evidence theory is applied to the risk assessment and optimization design of the security prevention system, and the concrete flow of the method is illustrated with an example model. The main innovative research results are as follows: (1) for the first time, the evidence theory is systematically applied to the risk assessment process of the security prevention system, and a set of relatively complete evaluation methods based on the idea of information fusion are proposed. The two-dimensional plane modeling of the security prevention system can describe the system structure information more effectively, and the multi-component risk information of the plane point can be fused to obtain the final risk information, which can effectively represent the comprehensive protection of the point. The evaluation results can be visualized intuitively. (2) for the first time, the evidence function (BPA) is used to express the risk information of planar points, which can better deal with the situation of "uncertainty" and "not knowing" and reduce the loss of information. Three kinds of BPA generation models are proposed, which are based on normal distribution, non-parametric generation model based on Gao Si process regression and generating model based on membership degree. In particular, the third model provides a way for system personnel to create a self-defined threat degree strategy. Then, two methods of transforming BPA into probability are proposed in this paper, which combines threat degree with membership function to generate BPA. (3). Probabilistic decision-making for risk assessment, including probabilistic conversion methods based on evidence correlation coefficients and conflict coefficients, By comparing them with the classical gambling probability conversion method, the corresponding suggestions are given. (4) for the optimization design problem of the security prevention system, the construction method and the solution scheme of the optimization problem are proposed. DIRECT algorithm and genetic algorithm are combined to complement each other. It can solve the optimal layout of system components under the condition of fixed resources, maximize the effectiveness of the system, and improve the cost-benefit ratio of the system.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TP202;D918.2
，
本文编号：2382190
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/falvlunwen/fanzuizhian/2382190.html
