后危机时期的中国工业部门产能过剩测度——基于数据包络分析法

发布时间：2018-01-15 07:19

本文关键词：后危机时期的中国工业部门产能过剩测度——基于数据包络分析法　出处：《工业技术经济》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目前理论界对"后危机时期"尚无定论,本文特指2008年国际金融危机爆发以来这一时期。文章结合数据包络分析和系统GMM模型分析了2008~2015年我国工业部门的产能过剩情况及主要影响因素,结果发现:这一时期我国工业部门的平均产能利用率约在69.57~73.09%左右,其中制造业部门的产能利用程度优于采矿业和电力、热水、燃气及水的生产和供应业;与一些发达经济体相比仍存在不小差距,相比德国2015年制造业产能利用率84.35%的水平,我国只有72.46%;需求因素与产能利用率显著正相关,现期汇率因素、企业数量因素与产能利用率显著负相关,经济发展程度、行业开放度和固定资产投资因素不显著。
[Abstract]:At present, there is no conclusion on "post-crisis period" in the theoretical circle. This paper specifically refers to the period since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008. Combining data envelopment analysis and systematic GMM model, this paper analyzes the overcapacity situation and main factors of industrial sector in China from 2008 to 2015. Influence factors. The results show that the average productivity utilization ratio of industrial sector is about 69.57% and 73.09% in this period, and the degree of capacity utilization in manufacturing sector is better than that in mining industry, electric power and hot water. Production and supply of gas and water; Compared with some developed economies, there is still a large gap. Compared with Germany's manufacturing capacity utilization rate of 84.35% in 2015, China has only 72.46 percent; The demand factor is positively correlated with the capacity utilization factor, the current exchange rate factor, the enterprise quantity factor and the productivity utilization factor are negative correlation, the economic development degree, the industry openness degree and the fixed asset investment factor are not significant.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学经济学院;中央财经大学商学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中国经济发展新常态的内涵、特征及其演变逻辑研究”(项目编号:15JZD0011)
【分类号】：F424
【正文快照】： 自2008年国际金融危机爆发后,世界经济一直难以摆脱深度调整的压力,以往我国借力于政策东风、廉价要素成本等红利带来的高速增长也暂告一段落,缺少了世界经济的有利支撑,我国同样进入了调整期,本文所指的“后危机时期”即是在此背景下,这一时期我国新老问题交织,结构矛盾更加

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