异质性能源消费与经济增长的非线性动态驱动机制

发布时间：2018-01-15 20:03

本文关键词：异质性能源消费与经济增长的非线性动态驱动机制　出处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：研究目标:测度改革开放近40年来,中国异质性能源消费与经济增长的非线性动态驱动机制。研究方法:基于煤炭、石油、天然气、电力消费以及GDP年度数据,运用马尔科夫区制转移因果(MSC)模型开展实证研究。研究发现:经济增长能够促进煤炭、石油、天然气和电力等异质性能源消费的提高,其中,石油和天然气消费的增加能够推动经济增长。经济增长对煤炭和石油消费的驱动作用持续期较长,对天然气和电力消费的驱动作用持续期较短,四种能源消费对经济增长驱动作用的时间长度大致相同。近年来,石油消费能够表现出对经济增长的非线性动态驱动作用,经济增长能够对石油和煤炭消费发挥非线性动态驱动作用。在金融危机时期,难以表现出经济增长对能源消费的单向时变因果影响,其中,煤炭、石油和天然气消费无法表现出对经济增长的单向时变因果影响,而电力消费对经济增长存在单向时变因果影响。研究创新:基于MSC模型,判断不同时段内异质性能源消费与经济增长的时变因果关系,进而揭示两者之间的非线性动态驱动机制。研究价值:为中国完成能源产业结构转型以及构建新时代能源产业体系提供经验证据。
[Abstract]:Objective: to measure the nonlinear dynamic driving mechanism of heterogeneous energy consumption and economic growth in China during the past 40 years of reform and opening up. Research methods: based on coal, oil and natural gas. Power consumption and GDP annual data, using Markov system transfer causality MSC-model to carry out empirical research. The study found that: economic growth can promote coal, oil. The increase of heterogeneous energy consumption, such as natural gas and electricity, among which, the increase of oil and gas consumption can promote economic growth. The driving effect of economic growth on coal and oil consumption is longer. The duration of driving effect on natural gas and electricity consumption is relatively short, and the time length of the four kinds of energy consumption driving economic growth is approximately the same in recent years. Oil consumption can show a nonlinear dynamic driving effect on economic growth, and economic growth can play a nonlinear dynamic driving role on oil and coal consumption. It is difficult to show the one-way time-varying causal effect of economic growth on energy consumption, among which, coal, oil and natural gas consumption can not show one-way time-varying causal impact on economic growth. Power consumption has a one-way time-varying causal impact on economic growth. Research innovation: based on the MSC model, determine the time-varying causal relationship between heterogeneous energy consumption and economic growth in different periods. The research value provides empirical evidence for China to complete the transformation of energy industry structure and to construct a new era energy industry system.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDC008) 全国百篇优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目(201303) 国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573104) 教育部重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790014) 吉林大学青年学术领袖培育计划项目(2015FRLX15)的资助
【分类号】：F124.1;F426.2
【正文快照】： 一、引言与文献回顾能源是国家经济发展的重要物质基础,宏观经济增长依赖于新型能源的不断发掘以及能源产业技术的不断革新。作为世界第二大经济体的中国,能源问题已然成为影响当前国民经济的战略性问题。作为一个“富煤少油贫气”的国家,除了石油和天然气需要大量进口以外,

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