我国乳业产业系统协同度评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 10:01

本文关键词： 乳业产业系统协同度评价协同发展突变转型子系统协调性有序度　出处：《黑龙江畜牧兽医》2017年22期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：运用协同理论对我国乳业产业系统的发展机制进行剖析,同时选取12个状态指标,利用2006—2015年数据,通过建立系统协同度评价模型进行分析评价各子系统及系统的协同水平。结果表明:当前我国乳业产业系统整体协同度仍处于较低水平,但系统协同度增长趋势明显,自2006—2011年,系统协同度增速整体水平略高,而2012—2015年系统协同度增长速率下降至较低水平,整体而言,系统协同度水平的发展与我国宏观经济水平发展步调相似,系统于2012年节点处失稳,并向更高级有序的结构状态演化发展,我国宏观经济处于产业结构转型中,乳业产业系统处于远离平衡并不断靠近系统突变的零界位置的中期阶段;此外,我国乳业产业系统子系统间协调效果整体较差,但近年来子系统间协调水平具有上升趋势,而子系统间的有序度发展虽一度得到提高,但各子系统有序水平不一,且其子系统间有序度差距呈现扩大趋势。基于此,提出相关建议以促进我国乳业产业结构实现顺利升级。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the development mechanism of dairy industry system in China by using synergetic theory, and selects 12 state indicators to use the data from 2006 to 2015. Through the establishment of system synergy evaluation model to analyze and evaluate the coordination level of each subsystem and system. The results show that the overall coordination degree of dairy industry system in China is still in a low level. But the increasing trend of system synergy is obvious. Since 2006-2011, the overall level of system synergy growth has been slightly higher, while the growth rate of system synergy has decreased to a lower level in 2012-2015. On the whole, the development of system synergy level is similar to that of China's macro-economic level. In 2012, the system lost its stability at the node and developed to a more advanced and orderly structural state. China's macro-economy is in the process of industrial structure transformation, and the dairy industry system is in the middle stage of being far away from equilibrium and constantly approaching the zero boundary position of system mutation. In addition, the overall effect of coordination among subsystems of dairy industry system in China is poor, but the level of coordination among subsystems has an upward trend in recent years, and the development of order degree among subsystems has been improved once. However, the order level of each subsystem is different, and the gap of order degree between subsystems is increasing. Based on this, some suggestions are put forward to promote the smooth upgrading of dairy industry structure in China.
【作者单位】：东北农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“基于质量安全的乳制品供应链系统自组织协同机制研究”(71303039) 东北农业大学青年才俊项目“基于声誉模型的乳制品供应链质量安全监管研究”(14QC55)
【分类号】：F426.82
【正文快照】： 随着我国经济改革的推进,我国乳业发展进入结构转型阶段,国内学者们主要将研究重心集中在乳制品质量安全问题上,并从各种不同角度进行研究。如从供应链优化管理方面对乳制品质量安全问题进行原因与对策研究[1];从原料乳的生产和加工过程、边缘地区的流通及管理机制等方面对乳

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