国际油价冲击对人民币汇率的影响——基于动态局部均衡资产选择模型的分析

发布时间：2018-01-29 23:00

本文关键词： 人民币国际化石油价格人民币汇率动态局部均衡资产选择模型　出处：《国际贸易问题》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：中国是主要的能源消费国,石油价格一直都是影响中国经济的重要因素。而在推进人民币国际化的进程中,伴随着资本账户的不断开放,国际油价对中国经济的影响已越来越多体现在对汇率的影响之上。通过引入资本账户开放,本文构建了动态局部均衡资产选择模型,从理论和实证两个方面考察了人民币国际化进程中,国际油价对人民币汇率的动态影响和冲击特点。研究结果表明:人民币汇率会受到油价变动的显著影响,并且这种影响会因资本账户开放程度的提高而发生改变;油价变动对汇率的冲击具有持久性,并且油价下跌会导致人民币的持续贬值;油价变动对汇率的解释能力显著高于其他经济变量,能解释大部分的汇率变动,是影响汇率变动的一个重要因素。在推进人民币国际化的进程中,中国应适时推动能源消费结构的调整并注重油价变动所引发的国际资本流动冲击,以防范汇率持续大幅波动的潜在风险。
[Abstract]:China is a major energy consumer, oil prices have been an important factor affecting China's economy, and in the process of promoting the internationalization of the renminbi, with the continuous opening of the capital account. The impact of international oil price on China's economy has been more and more reflected in the impact on the exchange rate. Through the introduction of capital account opening, this paper constructs a dynamic partial equilibrium asset selection model. This paper investigates the dynamic influence and impact characteristics of international oil price on RMB exchange rate in the process of RMB internationalization theoretically and empirically. The results show that the RMB exchange rate will be significantly affected by the change of oil price. And this effect will change with the increase of capital account opening; The fluctuation of oil price has a lasting impact on the exchange rate, and the falling oil price will lead to the continuous depreciation of RMB. The ability of explaining the change of oil price to the exchange rate is significantly higher than that of other economic variables, which can explain most of the changes of exchange rate, which is an important factor affecting the change of exchange rate, and it is in the process of promoting the internationalization of RMB. China should timely promote the adjustment of energy consumption structure and pay attention to the impact of international capital flows caused by the change in oil prices in order to guard against the potential risk of sustained large fluctuations in the exchange rate.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金“动态优化视角下的中国外汇储备全面风险管理研究”(71473208) 中央财经大学青年教师发展基金(QJJ1608)
【分类号】：F416.22;F764.1;F832.6
【正文快照】： 引言中国长期以来都是主要的石油进口国,2015年中国石油的对外依存度更是突破60%,石油价格已然成为影响中国经济的重要外部因素。特别是自2014年下半年至2016年年初的这段时间,国际原油价格从103.59美元/桶一度下跌至30.32美元/桶,跌幅超过50%,这不仅导致中国的进口总额急剧变

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