云南省工业部门碳排放与经济增长脱钩分析

发布时间：2018-02-12 21:51

本文关键词： 碳排放经济增长脱钩　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着生态环境日益严峻,碳排放成为现今研究的一个重点。经济的发展离不开能源的利用,但能源的使用伴随着二氧化碳的排放,日益增长的碳排放破坏了人类生存的环境,也成为了制约社会经济可持续发展的重要因素之一。因此,探究经济增长和碳排放之间的关系,对碳排放进行因素分解分析,研究经济增长和影响因素之间的脱钩关系对有效降低碳排放是十分必要的。本文首先运用了IPCC估算方法对云南省工业部门2000-2014年的碳排放量进行了估算,并对云南工业部门碳排放、经济增长和能源消费进行了现状分析,得到云南省工业部门碳排放呈逐年上升的趋势、经济增长趋势较为稳定、能源消费结构中原煤占据主要地位的结论;其次,本文在Kaya恒等式的基础上,运用LMDI分解方法对碳排放分别进行了乘法分解和加法分解,将碳排放影响因素分解为工业碳排放强度、工业能源结构、工业能源强度、产业结构、经济产出、人口规模,最后均得到经济产出是对碳排放产生正向影响的主要因素,能源强度是对碳排放产生负向影响的主要因素,产业结构和能源结构也是减少云南省工业部门碳排放增加的重要因素;再次,本文在基于影响因素分解的方法上,先是对云南省工业部门碳排放总体和经济增长之间分别构建了OECD脱钩模型和Tapio脱钩模型,得到2000-2014年间,云南省工业部门经济增长和碳排放之间总体上呈不脱钩的趋势,个别年份呈现了脱钩趋势,但近年来脱钩状态有所好转,在此基础上,本文结合碳排放影响因素,分别与经济增长构建了Tapio脱钩模型,得到不同的影响因素与经济增长之间的脱钩关系;最后,本文针对云南省工业部门不同碳排放影响因素,从经济结构、能源结构、能源强度和政府监管四个方面提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly serious ecological environment, carbon emissions have become a focus of research today. Economic development can not do without the use of energy, but the use of energy accompanied by carbon dioxide emissions, increasing carbon emissions destroyed the environment for human survival. Therefore, to explore the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, to analyze the factors of carbon emissions, It is necessary to study the decoupling relationship between economic growth and influencing factors in order to reduce carbon emissions effectively. Firstly, this paper estimates the carbon emissions of Yunnan industrial sector from 2000 to 2014 by using IPCC estimation method. The current situation of carbon emissions, economic growth and energy consumption in Yunnan industrial sector is analyzed. The results show that the carbon emissions of Yunnan industrial sector are increasing year by year, and the economic growth trend is relatively stable. The conclusion that raw coal occupies the main position in the energy consumption structure. Secondly, based on the Kaya identity, the LMDI decomposition method is used to decompose the carbon emissions by multiplicative decomposition and additive decomposition, respectively. The factors affecting carbon emissions are divided into industrial carbon emission intensity, industrial energy structure, industrial energy intensity, industrial structure, economic output, population size, and finally, economic output is the main factor that has a positive impact on carbon emissions. Energy intensity is the main factor of negative impact on carbon emissions, industrial structure and energy structure is also an important factor to reduce the increase of carbon emissions in the industrial sector of Yunnan Province. Firstly, the OECD decoupling model and the Tapio decoupling model are constructed between the total carbon emission and the economic growth of Yunnan industrial sector, and the trend of no decoupling between the economic growth and the carbon emission in the industrial sector of Yunnan Province from 2000 to 2014 is obtained. There is a decoupling trend in some years, but the decoupling status has improved in recent years. On this basis, this paper constructs a decoupling model of Tapio with economic growth, combining with the factors of carbon emissions. The decoupling relationship between different influencing factors and economic growth is obtained. Finally, this paper aims at different factors of carbon emissions in the industrial sector of Yunnan Province, from the economic structure, energy structure, Four aspects of energy intensity and government regulation put forward relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F427

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