供给侧改革对煤炭行业债券投资的影响分析

发布时间：2018-02-22 10:44

本文关键词： 供给侧改革债券煤炭行业马尔科夫区制转移模型　出处：《管理评论》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：供给侧改革是我国把握经济发展新常态,跨越"中等收入陷阱"的重要国策,改变了债券市场的分析逻辑。2013-2015年我国煤炭行业的过剩产能分别为14.66亿吨,14.49亿吨和20.50亿吨,在2015年达到历史峰值。通过分析煤炭行业利差的影响因素,我们识别了供给侧改革对煤炭行业债券的具体影响时点和影响方式。金融市场的投资逻辑转变发生在2015年9月,在供给侧改革之前,债券投资者的投资逻辑是"随行就市",关注市场风险而忽视行业风险。供给侧改革之后,投资者开始重视行业分析,煤炭价格下降和煤炭行业工业增加值缩水将导致煤炭行业利差显著升高。研究表明,供给侧改革要正视产能过剩、杠杆率过高的问题,不要害怕暴露风险。投资者应该重视行业风险,引导市场资金流出产能过剩行业,促进中国实体经济的结构转型。各级政府应该逐步打破国有企业的刚性兑付,正确处理好政府与市场的关系。
[Abstract]:The supply-side reform is an important national policy for China to grasp the new normal of economic development and cross the "middle-income trap", which has changed the analytical logic of the bond market. In 2013-2015, the excess capacity of China's coal industry was one billion four hundred and sixty-six million tons, one billion four hundred and forty-nine million tons and 2.05 billion tons respectively. By analyzing the influence factors of the coal industry interest rate difference, we identify the specific influence of supply-side reform on the coal industry bonds. The investment logic of the financial market changed in September 2015. Before the supply-side reform, the investment logic of bond investors was "follow the market", focusing on market risk and ignoring industry risk. After supply-side reform, investors began to attach importance to industry analysis. Falling coal prices and shrinking industrial value added in the coal industry will lead to a marked rise in interest rate differentials in the coal industry. Research shows that supply-side reforms should face up to the problem of overcapacity and excessive leverage. Don't be afraid to expose risks. Investors should pay attention to industry risks, guide market capital out of overcapacity industries, and promote the structural transformation of China's real economy. Governments at all levels should gradually break the rigid payment of state-owned enterprises. Correctly handle the relationship between the government and the market.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学经济管理学院;
【分类号】：F426.21;F832.51

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