阶梯电价对安徽省居民用电需求的影响分析及节能效果的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-04 20:39

本文选题：阶梯电价　切入点：用电需求量　出处：《浙江财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的迅速发展,能源短缺形势日益严峻,为了促进资源得到有效配置,加快推进资源节约型、环境友好型社会的建设,发改委提出居民生活阶梯式电价政策于2012年7月1日在全国29个省、市、自治区内实行。为了促进资源的合理分配与利用,具有提高效率并保障公平的双重目标,我国阶梯电价制度将用户月均用电量设置为若干个阶梯分段或分档次定价计算费用。阶梯电价改革主要是一方面考虑到了居民的经济承受能力,保证低收入群体的基本用电需求,同时对高收入群体用电量的过度浪费形成一定的约束力。目前学术界关于阶梯电价制度是否实现了效率与公平两个目标的相统一存在争论,尤其是是否真正起到节能的效果成为了学术界近几年争议的热点话题。因此,无论是从学术研究价值层面,还是节约能源的现实意义来讲,研究阶梯电价对居民用电需求量的影响及其是否真正达到节能效果都具有重要意义。本文首先介绍了我国当前电力资源利用的背景,论述了研究阶梯电价对于节约能源的重要意义,然后基于宏观和微观两个视角对阶梯电价的节能效果进行定性分析。在宏观视角上,本文以居民用电量及变化率为测度衡量阶梯电价的节能效果,数据分析表明实施阶梯电价之后,居民用电量的增长率呈现下降趋势,这表明阶梯电价制度在一定程度上起到了节能效果。在微观视角上,本文对安徽省合肥市200户居民进行问卷调查,调查问题主要包含居民用电量、收入水平、家庭人口数、对阶梯电价政策的认知度、居民节能意识等几个方面,并利用统计数据从收入水平、节能意识、对阶梯电价的认知程度等角度分析了阶梯电价对节能效果的影响机制。在完成阶梯电价对居民节能效果定性分析的前提上,本文进行了阶梯电价节能效果的定量分析。首先我们利用安徽省2004-2014年居民用电消费量的月度数据,建立ARIMA模型,实证结果表明在阶梯电价实行短期内,其节能效果较为显著,随着时间的推移,居民用电量与没有实行阶梯电价的用电量趋同,阶梯电价政策没有节能效果。接下来是对阶梯电价的节能效果进行估测,通过对历史文献的梳理,本文归纳总结出影响居民用电量的五个主要因素:人均可支配收入,人口数量,用电价格,燃气普及率,相关替代物品价格。利用计量方法建立居民用电量需求回归模型。在回归之前,首先对安徽省16个地区2010—2014年5年居民用电量的面板数据进行单位根检验、协整分析等平稳性检验,在此基础上对面板数据进行实证研究,得出安徽省居民用电需求模型。基于价格需求弹性理论,我们对居民需求模型中各变量对数化,求解居民用电量对价格的需求弹性,从而计算阶梯电价对节能效果的影响,计算结果表明:安徽省16个地区的阶梯电价政策在一定程度上抑制了居民用电量的增长,均达到了节能的效果,并且从不同地区节能效果测算值来看,节能效果不存区域差异性,本文对此也给出了相关解释。在对阶梯电价节能效果定量和定性分析的基础上,本文从五个方面给出了关于阶梯电价实施的相关建议:在电量阶梯分级中体现家庭成员数量对用电量的影响、加强电力节能意识引导、适当增加电价的阶梯层次、强化阶梯电价制度的宣传、补充和完善相关配套政策等,从而达到在保证社会公平的前提下,达到节能效果最大化的目标,实现效率与公平相统一。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, energy shortage is increasingly grim situation, in order to promote the effective allocation of resources, accelerate the construction of resource-saving and environment-friendly society, the NDRC raised residents stepped tariff policy in July 1, 2012 in 29 provinces, city, autonomous areas. In order to promote the rational allocation and utilization of resources, which improves the efficiency and security of our dual goal of fairness, the price ladder system will users average monthly electricity consumption is set to a number of steps or calculate the cost of sub grade pricing. If a price ladder reform main consideration to the affordability of the residents, ensure the basic electricity needs of low-income groups, while the high income groups with excessive waste power to form a certain binding. The academic circles on the price ladder system realizes the efficiency and fairness of the two target phase The unity of controversy, especially whether really play the effect of energy saving has become a hot topic in academic circles in recent years of controversy. Therefore, whether it is from the level of academic research value, practical significance and energy saving, the price ladder research and really achieve the effect of saving energy is of great significance for residents affected by electricity demand this paper first introduces the current use of power resources in China. The research discusses the price ladder for the importance of energy conservation, and then based on the energy saving effect of the two macro and micro perspective on the price ladder for qualitative analysis. At the macro perspective, the effect of energy saving of residential electricity consumption and the rate of change of measure of the price ladder the data analysis shows that the implementation of the price ladder, residents decreased the consumption growth rate, which indicates that the price ladder system to a certain extent up The energy saving effect. In the micro perspective, this paper conducted a questionnaire survey in Anhui Province, Hefei City, 200 residents, survey problems mainly includes electricity, with the level of income, family population, awareness of the price ladder policy, several residents of energy-saving awareness, and using the statistical data from the income level, the awareness of energy-saving on the ladder of cognitive degree, analysis the influence mechanism of the price ladder to the energy saving effect. After the qualitative analysis of the price ladder residents energy-saving effect, this paper quantitative analysis of energy saving effect of the price ladder. We use the residents of Anhui province for 2004-2014 years with monthly data of electricity consumption, the establishment of ARIMA model the empirical results show that, in the implementation of the price ladder in the short term, the energy saving effect is significant, with the passage of time, no electricity and the implementation of the price ladder electricity convergence for residents No, the price ladder policy of energy saving effect. Next is the energy saving effect of the price ladder is estimated, based on the literature review, this paper summarized the influence of five main factors: the consumption of residents per capita disposable income, population quantity, electricity prices, gas penetration rate, substitution of goods prices. The establishment of the residents the demand regression model by econometric methods. Before the reunification, first on the 16 areas of Anhui province from 2010 to 2014 5 years residents with electricity panel data unit root test, cointegration analysis of stationary test, on the basis of empirical research on the panel data of Anhui Province, the residential electricity demand model. Based on the theory of price elasticity of demand, we are the variables of the logarithmic model of the needs of the residents, for residents of electricity price elasticity of demand, to calculate the influence on the energy saving effect of the price ladder, meter The numerical results show that the price ladder policy in 16 areas of Anhui province and inhibit the growth of power consumption of the residents in a certain extent, have achieved the effect of energy saving, energy-saving effect of different regions and from the measured value view, energy-saving effect does not exist regional differences, this paper also gives some explanation. Based on the energy saving effect of ladder the price of quantitative and qualitative analysis, this paper gives some suggestions on the implementation of the price ladder from five aspects: the classification of family members of electricity ladder number effects on electricity, strengthen the power saving consciousness, appropriate to increase the level of the ladder electricity price, the price ladder system to strengthen the propaganda, to supplement and improve the relevant supporting policies thus, under the premise of ensuring social fairness, achieve maximum energy-saving effect, in order to achieve the unity of efficiency and fairness.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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