我国能源强度变动的影响因素分析——基于SDA分解技术

发布时间：2018-03-19 14:15

本文选题：能源强度　切入点：结构分解分析　出处：《中国管理科学》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展及能源消耗的急剧增加,深入分析我国能源强度变动的影响因素成为一个热点研究议题。基于结构分解分析方法(SDA),本文将能源强度变动因素分解成能源消耗系数、完全需要系数、最终需求、最终需求结构系数和最终能源消耗五个因素,并编制了1997、2002、2007、2012年我国实物价值型能源投入产出可比价序列表,以探索影响我国能源强度变动的主导因素。实证研究结果表明:(1)1997-2012年,我国能源总消费呈持续上升趋势,而能源强度波动性下降;(2)能源消耗系数一直是影响我国能源强度下降的主导因素;(3)然而,完全需要系数(即技术系数)对能源强度下降的影响效力在近年来逐步上升,并在2007-2012年间超过了能源消耗系数。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our economy and the sharp increase of energy consumption, It has become a hot topic to analyze the influencing factors of energy intensity change in China. Based on the structural decomposition analysis method, the energy intensity variation factor is decomposed into the energy consumption coefficient, the complete need coefficient, the final demand factor, the energy intensity variation factor is decomposed into the energy consumption coefficient, the complete need coefficient, the final demand. The final demand structure coefficient and the final energy consumption are five factors, and the order table of the physical value energy input-output comparable price in our country in 2012 is compiled in order to explore the leading factors that influence the change of energy intensity in our country. The empirical research results show that the ratio of energy intensity varies from 1997 to 2012. The total energy consumption in China is on the rise, and the fluctuation of energy intensity is decreasing. The energy consumption coefficient is always the leading factor affecting the decline of energy intensity in China. The effect of total demand coefficient (technical coefficient) on energy intensity decrease has been increasing gradually in recent years and has exceeded the energy consumption coefficient in 2007-2012.
【作者单位】：北京航空航天大学经济管理学院;北京化工大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家优秀青年基金项目(71622011) 国家重点研发计划重点专项(2016YFF0204405) 北京市社会科学基金项目(14JGC094) 国家电网公司科技项目
【分类号】：F223;F426.2

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