全球价值链融入与中国制造业就业:基于非竞争型投入产出模型的分析

发布时间：2018-03-24 20:23

本文选题：全球价值链　切入点：完全增加值　出处：《国际经贸探索》2017年11期

【摘要】：文章利用非竞争型投入产出模型构建了单位增加值的就业效应指标,开展了相应的部门分解,结合WIOD数据库,计算了1995~2011年中国制造业细分行业的完全增加值系数和完全就业系数。结果表明:传统的以产出为基准计算的就业量低估了国内真实边际产出对就业的拉动作用,即以单位增加值为基准计算的就业效应更大;虽然低端技术制造业在融入全球价值链中的就业创造效应最强,但不稳定,对外部冲击十分敏感;低端制造业向全球价值链高端环节攀升过程中,增加值增长与就业增长短期内呈现出"此消彼长"的关系;将制造业各行业的单位增加值的就业效应进行部门分解发现,中高端制造业与服务业耦合发展是未来国内就业增长的重要方向。
[Abstract]:Based on the non-competitive input-output model, this paper constructs the employment effect index of the unit added value, develops the corresponding division decomposition, and combines with the WIOD database. The full value added coefficient and full employment coefficient of Chinese manufacturing subdivision industry from 1995 to 2011 are calculated. The results show that the traditional employment based on output underestimates the pull effect of real marginal output on employment. That is, the employment effect calculated on the basis of unit added value is greater, although the employment creation effect of low-end technology manufacturing industry is the strongest in integrating into global value chain, it is unstable and sensitive to external shocks. In the process of the low-end manufacturing industry rising to the high end of the global value chain, the increase of added value and the employment growth in the short term present the relationship of "rising from one another" to the other, and the employment effect per unit added value of manufacturing industry is decomposed into different sectors. The coupling development of mid-high-end manufacturing and service industry is an important direction of employment growth in the future.
【作者单位】：南京财经大学国际经贸学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大攻关项目(16JZD019) 教育部重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790025) 江苏高校“青蓝工程”中青年学术带头人资助项目江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2015ZDAXM009)
【分类号】：F249.2;F424

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