天然气储备对天然气进口及国内价格的动态影响

发布时间：2018-03-25 12:09

本文选题：天然气进口　切入点：天然气储备　出处：《中国管理科学》2017年06期

【摘要】：为了保障天然气进口国的供应安全和经济持续稳定发展,本文建立了能综合考虑天然气储备对进口量和国内价格水平影响的模型,并利用最优控制原理,求得天然气进口国的最优进口量、储备量以及国内价格策略,结合比较静态分析和数值模拟,探讨了出口国垄断能力和进口国的供应中断风险厌恶程度对最优稳态储备规模、进口规模、国内天然气价格水平的影响。结果表明,在兼顾消费者剩余和供应安全总效用最大化的条件下,天然气储备将趋于长期最优稳态水平,且能避免进口天然气价格倒挂现象。随着进口国供应中断风险厌恶程度提高,天然气最优储备的积累速度将放缓,出口国垄断能力对最优策略的影响比进口国风险厌恶程度更加显著,最优稳态储备规模随出口国垄断能力的上升而下降。当出口国垄断能力足够高时,进口国的最优稳态进口量和国内价格水平不会随供应中断风险厌恶程度产生显著变化。
[Abstract]:In order to ensure the supply security and sustainable and stable development of natural gas importing countries, this paper establishes a model that can comprehensively consider the influence of natural gas reserves on the import volume and domestic price level, and makes use of the optimal control principle. The optimal import volume, reserve volume and domestic price strategy of natural gas importing countries are obtained. Combined with comparative static analysis and numerical simulation, the optimal steady-state reserve size of exporting countries, monopoly ability and supply interruption risk aversion of importing countries are discussed. The effect of import scale and domestic natural gas price level. The results show that natural gas reserves will tend to long-term optimal steady-state level under the condition of taking into account consumer surplus and total utility of supply safety. And it can avoid the inverted price of imported natural gas. As the risk aversion to interruption of supply in importing countries increases, the rate of accumulation of optimal reserves of natural gas will slow down. The influence of export monopoly ability on optimal strategy is more significant than that of importing country. The optimal steady state reserve size decreases with the increase of exporting country monopoly ability. The optimal steady-state import volume and domestic price level of importing countries will not change significantly with the risk aversion of supply interruption.
【作者单位】：重庆大学经济与工商管理学院;重庆科技学院数理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目(16BGL136) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71133007,71071172) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-12-0588) 重庆市教委人文社会科学基金资助项目(14SK006)
【分类号】：F426.22;F752.61;F764.1

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