国外对我国光伏产业实施双反措施的经济效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 03:14

本文选题：双反”措施　切入点：光伏产品　出处：《江苏大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：席卷全球的金融危机以及激烈的国际竞争使贸易保护主义倾向在全球抬头。“双反”措施已经成为WTO成员国间常规化的一种贸易救济工具。光伏产业作为新能源产业的代表是各国争夺新能源市场份额的战略制高点,近年来我国光伏产业迅速崛起,在国际市场的占有率也逐步提高。然而,随着我国光伏产业的发展,美欧相继对我国光伏产业实施贸易制裁措施,针对我国光伏产业的“双反”制裁案件数量逐年攀升。另外,我国光伏产业对国外市场依存度高,光伏产品技术含量低。国外与国内市场的双重影响导致我国光伏行业发展受阻,面临着许多的挑战。为此,本文从“双反”措施对出口国经济效应的理论研究出发,从出口贸易、产业环境、国家福利三个层面来探究“双反”措施对出口国的经济效应。同时,分析我国光伏产业遭受“双反”的现状以及欧美发达国家及新兴市场国家实施“双反”措施的不同特点,揭示我国光伏产业发展的机遇与挑战、优势与劣势、前景与趋势。实证分析中本文首先采用商业贸易政策分析系统模型,实证检验美国对我国光伏行业实施“双反”措施后产生的贸易效应。研究发现,美国对我国光伏产品实施“双反”措施具有一定的贸易抑制效应。另外,虽然“双反”措施的实施给美国光伏生产者带来了福利,但却损害了消费者的利益,所以从长远来看美国社会总福利是下降的。“双反”措施并不能从根本上起到贸易保护的作用。另外,本文还运用2006-2015年的面板数据,探究影响我国光伏行业发展的宏观经济因素。研究结果表明,国内生产总值、我国光伏行业的出口水平、国外对我国光伏行业的贸易调查和贸易终裁都是影响我国光伏行业发展的因素,其中贸易终裁效应对我光伏行业产能的影响最大,时间也最持久。最后针对以上研究发现的问题,为我国光伏行业未来发展提出几点建议。首先应建立良好的预警机制,争取将国外的贸易制裁遏制在萌芽期,避免“双反”终裁的最终落实。其次,当贸易终裁结果最终公布并落实,以积极的态度应对贸易制裁,弥补“双反”给我国光伏行业带来的产品滞销,生产停滞,企业亏损等不良影响,转移“双反”措施的贸易抑制效应。最后,从长远看我国光伏行业应努力增强自身实力,促进行业转型升级,创新整合光伏企业,开拓国内市场,从根本上避免贸易制裁的不良影响。
[Abstract]:The global financial crisis and fierce international competition have made the trend of trade protectionism rise all over the world. "double counter" measures have become a conventional trade relief tool among WTO member countries. Photovoltaic industry is a new energy source. The representative of the industry is the strategic commanding point for countries to compete for share of the new energy market. In recent years, China's photovoltaic industry has risen rapidly, and its share in the international market has gradually increased. However, with the development of China's photovoltaic industry, the United States and Europe have successively imposed trade sanctions on China's photovoltaic industry. The number of "double opposition" sanctions against China's photovoltaic industry has increased year by year. In addition, China's photovoltaic industry has a high degree of dependence on foreign markets. The technology content of photovoltaic products is low. The development of photovoltaic industry in our country is hindered by the dual influence of foreign and domestic markets, and it faces many challenges. Therefore, this paper starts from the theoretical study of the economic effect of "double reverse" measures on exporting countries. From three aspects of export trade, industrial environment and national welfare, this paper explores the economic effects of "double counter" measures on exporting countries. This paper analyzes the current situation of the photovoltaic industry in China, and the different characteristics of the measures implemented by the developed countries and emerging market countries in Europe and the United States, and reveals the opportunities and challenges, advantages and disadvantages of the development of the photovoltaic industry in China. In the empirical analysis, we first use the commercial trade policy analysis system model to test the trade effect of the "double reverse" measures in the photovoltaic industry of our country. In addition, although the implementation of the "double reaction" measure has brought benefits to American photovoltaic producers, it has harmed the interests of consumers. So in the long run, overall social welfare in the United States is down. The "double counter" measures do not fundamentally protect trade. In addition, this article uses panel data from 2006 to 2015. This paper explores the macroeconomic factors that affect the development of photovoltaic industry in China. The results show that the GDP, the export level of photovoltaic industry in China, The foreign trade investigation and final cut of photovoltaic industry in our country are the factors that affect the development of photovoltaic industry in China, among which the final effect of trade arbitration has the greatest influence on the production capacity of photovoltaic industry in China. The time is also the longest. Finally, in view of the problems found in the above studies, some suggestions are put forward for the future development of the photovoltaic industry in China. First of all, we should establish a good early warning mechanism to try to contain foreign trade sanctions in the bud. Second, when the final results of the final trade cut are finally announced and implemented, and trade sanctions are dealt with in a positive manner, to make up for the unsalable products brought to our photovoltaic industry by "double negative", and the stagnation in production. In the long run, China's photovoltaic industry should strive to enhance its own strength, promote industry transformation and upgrading, innovate and integrate photovoltaic enterprises, and open up the domestic market. Fundamentally avoid the adverse effects of trade sanctions.
【学位授予单位】：江苏大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61;F741

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