呼包鄂能源消费与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-08 11:02

本文选题：能源消费　切入点：经济增长　出处：《内蒙古财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：能源是人类赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础,人类文明每一次重大进步都伴随着能源的改进和更替,能源的合理开发利用和可持续发展对世界经济和人类社会发展具有重大意义。随着我国经济进入新常态,传统的粗放式、高能耗的经济发展方式亟需转变,如何实现能源与经济协调发展又一次成为了人们关注的焦点。呼包鄂三市是内蒙古自治区经济增长和能源消费的主要地区,2015年三市GDP总额超过11000亿元,占全区GDP总量的63%;同年,三市的能源消费总量超过8000万吨标准煤,占内蒙古自治区当年能源消耗总量的47%,可以说占据了内蒙古能源消费的半壁江山。因此,厘清呼包鄂能源消费与经济增长的关系对于转变呼包鄂经济发展方式,实现呼包鄂能源消费与经济增长协调发展有着极其重要的意义。本文在阐述了能源消费与经济增长的相关理论基础上,对呼包鄂能源消费及经济增长的现状进行了统计性描述。运用灰色关联分析方法,从经济增长与能源消费总量、产业结构与能源消费两个角度对呼包鄂能源消费与经济增长之间的关系进行探究。并利用GM(1,1)模型对呼包鄂未来10年的能源消费情况进行预测。主要结果如下:(1)从各市经济增长与呼包鄂能源消费总量之间关系的角度:在呼包鄂三市中,鄂尔多斯市的经济增长与呼包鄂地区能源消费总量的关联度最大,其次是包头市,呼和浩特市的关联度最小。这说明鄂尔多斯市的经济增长对呼包鄂地区能源消费总量的影响最大,呼和浩特市的影响最小,包头市介于二者之间。同时也可以说明鄂尔多斯市经济增长对能源消费的依赖程度最强,其次是包头市,依赖程度最小的是呼和浩特市。(2)从产业结构与能源消费之间关系的角度:呼和浩特市三次产业比重的变动与能源消费量关联度最大的是第三产业,其次是第二产业,最后是第一产业;包头市第三产业比重的变动与能源消费量的关联最大,第二产业比重的变动对能源消费量也有相大的影响,而第一产业比重的变动对能源消费量的影响较小;鄂尔多斯市三次产业比重的变动与能源消费量关联度最大的是第二产业,其次是第三产业,最后是第一产业。(3)从未来能源消费量估计的角度:未来十年呼和浩特市的能源消费量缓慢下降,包头市和鄂尔多斯市的能源消费量则呈上升的趋势,且鄂尔多斯市的能源消费增长速度较快。最后,本文还就呼包鄂能源消费与经济增长协调发展提出了一些政策建议,包括:全面节约能源,控制能源消费总量;优化产业结构,加快产业升级;加强技术创新,提高能源利用效率;适度调整经济增长预期,减轻节能压力;积极发展循环经济,实现清洁生产;积极开发新能源,着力改善能源结构。
[Abstract]:Energy is an important material foundation for human survival and development. Every major progress of human civilization is accompanied by the improvement and replacement of energy.The rational development and sustainable development of energy are of great significance to the world economy and human society.With China's economy entering the new normal, the traditional extensive and high energy consumption economic development mode needs to be changed urgently. How to realize the coordinated development of energy and economy has once again become the focus of attention.Hubao and Hubei are the main areas of economic growth and energy consumption in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region. In 2015, the total GDP of the three cities exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, accounting for 63 percent of the total GDP of the whole region; in the same year, the total energy consumption of the three cities exceeded 80 million tons of standard coal.Accounted for 47 percent of the total energy consumption in Inner Mongolia, can be said to occupy half of the Inner Mongolia energy consumption.Therefore, it is of great significance to clarify the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Hubao Hubei and to change the mode of economic development and realize the coordinated development of energy consumption and economic growth in Hubao Hubei.Based on the theory of energy consumption and economic growth, this paper gives a statistical description of the current situation of energy consumption and economic growth in Hubao and Hubei.In this paper, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Hubao and Hubei is studied from the perspectives of economic growth and total energy consumption, industrial structure and energy consumption.The energy consumption of Hubao and Hubei in the next 10 years is predicted by using the GMM1 / 1) model.The main results are as follows: (1) from the angle of the relationship between the economic growth and the total energy consumption of Hubao and Hubei, the economic growth of Ordos is the most closely related to the total energy consumption in Hubao and Hubei, followed by Baotou.Hohhot has the least correlation.This shows that the economic growth of Ordos has the greatest influence on the total energy consumption in Hubao and Hubei, and the influence of Huhhot is the least, and Baotou is somewhere between the two.At the same time, it can also be explained that economic growth in Ordos is the most dependent on energy consumption, followed by Baotou City.From the point of view of the relationship between industrial structure and energy consumption, the third industry, followed by the secondary industry, has the greatest correlation between the change of the third industrial proportion and the energy consumption in Hohhot.The change of the proportion of the tertiary industry in Baotou has the largest correlation with the energy consumption, and the change of the proportion of the secondary industry has a great impact on the energy consumption, while the change of the proportion of the primary industry has little effect on the energy consumption.The second industry, followed by the tertiary industry, has the greatest correlation between the change in the proportion of three industries in Ordos and energy consumption.Finally, from the perspective of the estimation of future energy consumption in the primary industry, the energy consumption in Hohhot city will decline slowly in the next ten years, while the energy consumption in Baotou and Ordos cities will show an upward trend.And Ordos City's energy consumption growth rate is relatively fast.Finally, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the coordinated development of energy consumption and economic growth in Hubao and Hubei, including: saving energy in an all-round way, controlling the total amount of energy consumption, optimizing industrial structure, speeding up industrial upgrading, strengthening technological innovation.We should improve the efficiency of energy use, adjust the expectation of economic growth, lighten the pressure of energy saving, actively develop circular economy and realize cleaner production, and actively develop new energy sources and improve the energy structure.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;F426.2

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