制造业就业与服务业就业的交互乘数及空间溢出效应

发布时间：2018-04-09 04:34

本文选题：就业乘数　切入点：空间联立方程　出处：《财贸经济》2017年04期

【摘要】：本文通过理论模型揭示了制造业就业与服务业就业之间存在交互乘数及空间溢出效应。利用中国2003-2013年285个地级及以上城市的数据,建立联立方程模型,基于不同空间权重矩阵,使用GS3SLS方法进行事实检验。研究发现:制造业就业与服务业就业之间存在双向促进作用机制,城市制造业就业每增加1%,会带来服务业就业0.45%~0.47%的提升,其中,生产性服务业的受益最大;服务业就业每增加1%,会带来制造业就业1.15%~1.16%的提升。城市之间制造业就业和服务业就业均存在正向的空间溢出效应,而二者的空间交互溢出效应为负,表现为发达地区拥有高端制造业的同时,会吸引周边地区从事服务业的劳动力迁入。进一步的分析表明:随着时间的推移,服务业就业对制造业就业的乘数效应占主导,制造业的发展愈发依靠服务业的不断完善,二者的空间交互溢出效应逐渐减弱。政策上,促进劳动力的流动、深化市场化改革、充分发挥大城市的规模经济、完善城市结构体系、加强交通基础设施建设和公共服务有助于提升第二、三产业之间相互创造就业岗位的能力。
[Abstract]:The theoretical model reveals the existence of interaction multiplier and the spatial spillover effect between employment service and manufacturing industry employment. By 2003-2013 years China 285 prefecture level and above city data, establishing a simultaneous equation model based on different spatial weight matrix, using the GS3SLS method. Verifying the facts found bidirectional promotion mechanism between manufacturing industry city employment and employment in service industry, manufacturing employment increased 1%, 0.45%~0.47% will bring employment service industry promotion, the biggest benefit of productive service industry; service industry employment increased by 1%, manufacturing employment will bring 1.15%~1.16% improvement. There are positive spillover effect between manufacturing and service employment in city employment, and the interaction of the two spatial spillover effect is negative, performance for the developed area has high-end manufacturing industry at the same time, will attract the surrounding area in service The service industry labor migration. Further analysis shows that with the passage of time, the multiplier effect of employment in service industry of manufacturing employment is dominant, the development of manufacturing industry and constantly improve the service industry increasingly rely on the interaction of the two spatial spillover effect is gradually weakened. The policy, promoting the mobility of labor, deepening market reform give full play to the big city, economy of scale, improving the structure of the city traffic system, strengthen the construction of infrastructure and public services to help improve the second, third industry are creating jobs.

【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;北京大学经济学院;
【基金】：中国人民大学2016年度拔尖创新人才培育资助计划项目国家社会科学重大基金项目“扩大我国服务业对外开放的路径与战略研究”(14ZDA084) 国家社科基金青年项目“供给侧结构性改革下中国收入分配结构调整与资源配置效率改善研究”(16CJL014)
【分类号】：F424;F719

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