风能资源利用效率评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 14:23

本文选题：风能　切入点：利用效率　出处：《东北电力大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：风能资源是一种绿色环保、可再生的能源,风能资源的高效开发利用是实现我国绿色发展、节能减排的重要举措之一。风电作为风能资源最有效、最广泛的利用形式,已成为我国能源结构性改革的重要抓手。目前,我国是世界上风电装机容量最大的国家,截止到2016年,累计并网容量达到1.49亿kW,然而2016年全年弃风电量却高达497亿kW·h,同比增长46.6%,弃风限电问题仍然十分突出,这就不仅导致风电发展遇到瓶颈,而且造成大量风能资源白白浪费。为了能够减少风能资源的浪费,使得我国风电发展稳步推进,那么,客观、全面的对我国风能资源利用水平进行评价和研究就显得异常重要。目前以“风电利用小时数”、“弃风率”、“弃风电量”来评价某个区域风能资源的利用水平。然而在忽视一个地区的风能特点、电网结构、能源结构、负荷特性、电网运行水平、经济发展水平、风电技术水平等影响因素的前提下,这三个指标并不能综合性的全面刻画某个区域的风能资源利用效率。因此,本文从风能开发、能质效率、技术水平、电网接纳、风能消纳五个视角全面反映风能资源利用效率,并采用改进型灰靶理论建立了评价模型,创新性的提出一种基于改进型灰靶理论的“风能资源综合利用率”的概念和评价模型,从而更加全面的综合评价我国不同地区风能资源的利用效率。本文之前鲜有学者对风能资源利用效率进行定量的分析,因此,本文又在吸收前人进行效率评价研究和方法的基础上,剔除风能资源量较小或未有相关统计数据的省(区)和直辖市,采用DEA模型对我国2014年和2015年的25个省(区)风能资源的利用效率进行测算,并深入分析我国6大区域性电网风能资源的利用水平、各省(区)变化趋势及风能资源利用效率的影响因素。有助于从更深层次发现我国不同省(区)、不同区域性电网目前在风能资源利用效率方面存在的问题。基于以上对风能资源综合利用效率的分析和利用DEA模型进行的定量分析,并根据分析结果提出有针对性的对策建议,这不仅有助于了解我国风能资源利用水平的真实状况,还能为能源决策部门对制定提高我国不同地区风能资源利用效率的政策提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:Wind energy resource is a kind of green and renewable energy. The efficient development and utilization of wind energy resource is one of the important measures to realize green development, energy saving and emission reduction in China.Wind power, as the most effective and widely used form of wind energy resources, has become an important part of energy structural reform in China.At present, China is the country with the largest installed wind power capacity in the world. By 2016, the cumulative grid-connected capacity has reached 149 million kW. However, in 2016, the total amount of abandoned wind power is as high as 49.7 billion kW / h, an increase of 46.6% over the same period last year, and the problem of abandoning wind and restricting electricity is still very prominent.This not only leads to the bottleneck of wind power development, but also causes a lot of waste of wind energy resources.In order to reduce the waste of wind energy resources and make the development of wind power in China advance steadily, it is very important to evaluate and study the utilization level of wind energy resources objectively and comprehensively.At present, the utilization level of wind energy resources in a certain area is evaluated by "wind power utilization hours", "abandoned wind power rate" and "abandoned wind power volume".However, on the premise of ignoring the wind energy characteristics of a region, power grid structure, energy structure, load characteristics, power grid operation level, economic development level, wind power technology level and so on,These three indexes can not comprehensively describe the utilization efficiency of wind energy resources in a certain area.Therefore, this paper comprehensively reflects the utilization efficiency of wind energy resources from the five perspectives of wind energy development, energy quality efficiency, technical level, grid acceptance and wind energy absorption, and establishes an evaluation model by using the improved grey target theory.An innovative concept and evaluation model of "comprehensive utilization ratio of wind energy resources" based on the improved grey target theory is proposed to evaluate the utilization efficiency of wind energy resources in different regions of China more comprehensively.Before this article few scholars carried on the quantitative analysis to the wind energy resources utilization efficiency, therefore, this article again in absorbs the predecessor to carry on the efficiency appraisal research and the method foundation,Excluding the provinces (regions) and municipalities with relatively small amount of wind energy resources or without relevant statistical data, the DEA model is used to measure the utilization efficiency of wind energy resources in 25 provinces (regions) of China in 2014 and 2015.The utilization level of wind energy resources in 6 regional power grids in China, the changing trend of provinces (regions) and the factors affecting the utilization efficiency of wind energy resources are also analyzed in depth.It is helpful to find out the problems existing in the utilization efficiency of wind energy in different provinces (regions and regions) in China.Based on the above analysis of the comprehensive utilization efficiency of wind energy resources and the quantitative analysis using DEA model, and based on the results of the analysis, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, which are not only helpful to understand the real situation of the utilization level of wind energy resources in China.It can also provide theoretical basis for energy decision-making departments to formulate policies to improve the utilization efficiency of wind energy resources in different regions of China.
【学位授予单位】：东北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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