医药行业股票市盈率影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-28 06:05

本文选题：医药行业 + 市盈率　；参考：《上海外国语大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：医药行业在各国国民经济中有着重要地位,医药工业生产总值占国民生产总值的比重也在不断的增加。而在二级市场方面,医药类上市企业也在不断增加。因此,正确的分析医药股票价格的影响具有重要的意义。首先,本文通过整理国内外的参考文献和经典理论的推导,对市盈率的影响因素有了基础了解。其次,结合医药行业的特点,从理论方面分析影响市盈率的因素,这些因素包括宏观层面、行业层面和微观层面的多个具体指标。最后,在理论分析的基础上,利用Stata软件和面板数据分析方法,对113家医药上市企业2011-2015年五年的数据进行定量分析。通过一系列研究,最终得出:变量净利润增长率、资产负债率、ROE、BETA、换手率、GDP同比增长率以及一年定期存款利率(interestRate)均表现出了对市盈率的显著性影响关系。其中除了ROE、BETA和一年定期存款利率(interestRate)的系数估计值为负以外,其他影响因素的相关系数均显著为正,表现出了对市盈率的正向影响。总体来看,对于医药行业股票市盈率的影响因素来说,行业因素的解释力度最弱,宏观因素居中,微观因素的解释力度最强。这在一定程度上反映了医药消费需求的刚性特征,同时也与二级市场医药板块股票在某些程度上可以抵抗经济周期的特点相符合。
[Abstract]:The pharmaceutical industry plays an important role in the national economy of various countries, and the proportion of the gross national product (GNP) of the pharmaceutical industry is also increasing. And in the secondary market, pharmaceutical listed enterprises are also increasing. Therefore, the correct analysis of the impact of pharmaceutical stock prices has an important significance. Firstly, this paper has a basic understanding of the influencing factors of the price-earnings ratio by sorting out the references and the derivation of the classical theory at home and abroad. Secondly, combined with the characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the price-to-earnings ratio from the theoretical point of view. These factors include the macro level, the industry level and the micro level of a number of specific indicators. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis, using Stata software and panel data analysis method, the data of 113 listed pharmaceutical enterprises from 2011 to 2015 are analyzed quantitatively. Through a series of studies, it is concluded that the variable net profit growth rate, the asset-liability ratio ROEBETA, the turnover ratio and the annual GDP growth rate, as well as the one-year time deposit interest rate, all show a significant effect on the price-to-earnings ratio. Except that the coefficient of ROEBETA and one year time deposit interest rate is negative, the correlation coefficient of other influencing factors is significantly positive, which shows the positive effect on the price-earnings ratio. As a whole, the industry factor is the weakest, the macro factor is the middle factor, and the micro factor is the strongest, for the influencing factors of the pharmaceutical stock price / earnings ratio, the industry factor is the weakest, the macro factor is the middle, and the micro factor is the strongest. To a certain extent, this reflects the rigid characteristics of pharmaceutical consumption demand, and it is also consistent with the characteristics of the secondary market pharmaceutical stocks that can resist the economic cycle to some extent.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F426.72

【参考文献】