基于IPAT-LMDI模型的中国区域能源效率分解研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 12:32

本文选题：能源效率 + IPAT模型　；参考：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：当今社会,能源效率成为影响国家经济增长与区域能源消费的重要因素,有关能源效率的研究受到了广泛关注。我国各省级由于受到地理位置、资源禀赋等因素的影响,能源分布密集的地区经济发展水平较低,对应区域的能源利用效率偏低。各地区经济发展水平呈现一定的区域性特性,基于各区域能源分布的优势,以大量的能耗带动区域的经济发展,使得大量能源的浪费。因此,针对我国各区域能源效率的影响因素进行分解研究,分析能源效率的区域差异性,对于制定科学合理的能源政策具有重要的现实意义。本文首先分析中国能源消费现状以及能源效率的变动情况,并对其变化的趋势进行了分析,东部地区省份的能源效率明显高于中部、西部地区省份的能源效率;进而,运用IPAT模型和LMDI分解模型,针对中国30个省份2008-2012年间能源效率影响因素进行分析研究。在此基础上,将中国划分为四大区域(京津冀区域、长江经济带、丝绸之路经济带、21世纪海上丝绸之路),进一步分析各区域能效差异性及其影响因素。本研究将能效影响因素分解为碳生产力效应、碳排放系数效应、能源结构效应、能源强度效应、经济产出效应、人均能耗倒数效应,研究表明中国区域能效具有很大的差异性,不同区域能效各影响因素效应大小不同。总体来看,经济产出效应对中国能效起到最大的正向驱动作用,其次是碳生产力效应、能源结构效应、碳排放系数效应。同时,能源强度效应和人均能耗倒数效应对能效具有一定程度的抑制作用;最后,本文强调指出加快产业结构调整、优化能源消费结构、发展高能效技术等政策对我国下一步制定相关能源政策以及实施低碳经济发展战略具有重要的理论和实践意义。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, energy efficiency has become an important factor affecting national economic growth and regional energy consumption. Due to the influence of geographical location, resource endowment and other factors, the level of economic development in energy-intensive areas is relatively low, and the energy utilization efficiency of the corresponding regions is low. The level of regional economic development presents certain regional characteristics. Based on the advantages of regional energy distribution, a large amount of energy consumption leads to regional economic development, resulting in a large amount of energy waste. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to analyze the regional differences of energy efficiency and make a scientific and reasonable energy policy. This paper first analyzes the current situation of China's energy consumption and the change of energy efficiency, and analyzes the trend of its change. The energy efficiency of the eastern provinces is obviously higher than that of the central and western provinces, and the energy efficiency of the eastern provinces is higher than that of the central and western provinces. Using IPAT model and LMDI decomposition model, the factors affecting energy efficiency in 30 provinces of China from 2008 to 2012 were analyzed and studied. On this basis, China is divided into four regions (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze Economic Belt and Silk Road Economic Belt). In this study, the factors affecting energy efficiency are divided into carbon productivity effect, carbon emission coefficient effect, energy structure effect, energy intensity effect, economic output effect, reciprocal effect of energy consumption per capita. The effects of different factors on energy efficiency are different in different regions. In general, the economic output effect has the largest positive driving effect on energy efficiency in China, followed by carbon productivity effect, energy structure effect and carbon emission coefficient effect. At the same time, the energy intensity effect and the reciprocal effect of energy consumption per capita have a certain degree of inhibition on energy efficiency. Finally, this paper emphasizes that accelerating the adjustment of industrial structure, optimizing the energy consumption structure, The development of energy efficiency technology and other policies have important theoretical and practical significance for the formulation of energy policy and the implementation of low-carbon economic development strategy.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F426.2

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