光伏企业财务风险的OLAP分析与预警研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 04:11

本文选题：财务风险 + OLAP　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着政府对新能源产业扶持力度的不断加大,我国光伏企业取得了高速发展。但是,由于我国光伏产业起步较晚,核心技术尚不成熟,给企业的生产经营带来了许多不利影响,容易引发企业的财务风险。为了减少光伏企业财务风险带来的损失,财务风险分析与预警体系的建立迫在眉睫。然而,面对与日俱增的财务数据量,传统的财务分析方法已经不能满足风险分析的需要。因此,借助商务智能工具OLAP(Online Analytical Processing,即联机分析处理),从海量的财务数据中挖掘出有用信息,对财务状况进行多维分析与风险预警,对于企业的健康发展尤为必要。本文利用商务智能工具OLAP,针对我国光伏企业的财务风险分析与预警进行了相关研究,实现了研究方法的创新。首先,概述了我国光伏企业的发展现状,明确了财务风险和含义及分析方法,综述了财务预警的内涵及模型,阐述了OLAP的相关理论,为下文研究奠定了理论基础。其次,按照一定的原则选取25家光伏上市企业作为样本,构建财务数据仓库,将OLAP技术应用于财务分析中,利用切片、切块、旋转、钻取等方法,从偿债风险、营运风险、盈利风险、支付风险等四个方面深入分析了企业的财务状况,为财务风险预警模型的指标选取提供了依据。再次,在多维分析的基础上,建立了风险预警的星型指标体系,结合熵权法确定各个预警指标的权重,构建了财务风险预警模型,并利用判别分析法验证了预警模型的有效性。最后,以OLAP立方体作为数据源,针对企业面临的不同方面的财务风险,采用因子——聚类法将25家样本企业划分为不同的类别,并且有针对性地提出了各自应对财务风险的预警策略。本文所做的研究对企业管理层、投资者、债权人等相关利益决策者都有比较重要的帮助意义。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the increasing of government support to the new energy industry, photovoltaic enterprises in China have made rapid development. However, due to the late start of photovoltaic industry in China and the immature core technology, it has brought many adverse effects to the production and management of enterprises, which can easily lead to the financial risks of enterprises. In order to reduce the loss caused by the financial risk of photovoltaic enterprises, the establishment of financial risk analysis and early warning system is urgent. However, in the face of increasing financial data, the traditional financial analysis method can not meet the needs of risk analysis. Therefore, with the help of business intelligence tool OLAP(Online Analytical processing, that is, on-line analytical processing, mining useful information from massive financial data and carrying out multidimensional analysis and risk early warning of financial situation, it is particularly necessary for the healthy development of enterprises. Based on the business intelligence tool OLAP, this paper studies the financial risk analysis and early warning of photovoltaic enterprises in China, and realizes the innovation of research methods. Firstly, this paper summarizes the development of photovoltaic enterprises in China, clarifies the financial risk, meaning and analysis methods, summarizes the connotation and model of financial early warning, expounds the relevant theories of OLAP, and lays a theoretical foundation for the following research. Secondly, 25 photovoltaic listed enterprises are selected as samples according to certain principles, and the financial data warehouse is constructed. The OLAP technology is applied to financial analysis, using slice, rotation, drilling and other methods, from debt repayment risk, operating risk, etc. This paper analyzes the financial situation of the enterprise from four aspects: profit risk and payment risk, which provides the basis for selecting the index of financial risk warning model. Thirdly, on the basis of multidimensional analysis, the star index system of risk early warning is established, combined with entropy weight method to determine the weight of each early warning index, the financial risk early warning model is constructed, and the validity of the early warning model is verified by discriminant analysis. Finally, taking the OLAP cube as the data source and aiming at the different financial risks faced by enterprises, 25 sample enterprises are divided into different categories by factor-clustering method. And has pointed out to deal with the financial risk each early warning strategy. The research in this paper is of great help to managers, investors, creditors and other relevant interest decision makers.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.61

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