基于供应链角度的中国天然气进口风险研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 00:45

本文选题：中国 + 天然气　；参考：《天然气工业》2017年05期

【摘要】：近年来,中国天然气对外依存度快速增长,2016年已达33.4%。在天然气进口的过程中会面临各种风险,由于地理位置、经济环境、资源禀赋等的差异,中国从不同国家和地区进口天然气的风险并不完全相同。为此,以供应链为基础,构建了中国天然气进口风险指标体系,并使用熵权法计算指标权重,进而计算了中国2011—2014年从不同国家进口天然气的风险。研究结果表明:(1)2011—2014年,中国天然气进口风险总体呈上升趋势,其中陆上管道进口风险总体上小于海上进口风险;(2)从进口来源的角度分析,从土库曼斯坦进口天然气的风险最大,其次是卡塔尔、也门、乌兹别克斯坦、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、澳大利亚等国家。结论认为:中国应从优化天然气进口来源、加强天然气运输通道安全、扩大海外天然气开发投资、培养天然气自给能力等4个方面着手,降低天然气进口的风险,从而保证天然气供应的持续性和稳定性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's foreign dependence on natural gas has increased rapidly, reaching 33.4 in 2016. In the process of natural gas import, there are many kinds of risks. Because of the difference of geographical location, economic environment, resource endowment and so on, the risk of importing natural gas from different countries and regions in China is not exactly the same. Therefore, based on the supply chain, the index system of China's natural gas import risk is constructed, and the index weight is calculated by using entropy weight method, and then the risk of China importing natural gas from different countries in 2011-2014 is calculated. The results show that in 2011-2014, China's natural gas import risk is on the rise, and the onshore pipeline import risk is generally smaller than the offshore import risk. Gas imports from Turkmenistan are most risky, followed by Qatar, Yemen, Uzbekistan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia. The conclusion is that China should reduce the risk of natural gas import from four aspects, such as optimizing the source of natural gas import, strengthening the safety of natural gas transportation channel, expanding overseas natural gas development investment, and cultivating natural gas self-sufficiency. In order to ensure the sustainability and stability of natural gas supply.
【作者单位】：中国石油大学(北京);
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“我国天然气安全预警与应急系统研究”(编号:71273277) 教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“扩大我国油气战略储备研究”(编号:11JZD048)
【分类号】：F426.22;F752.61

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