中国制造业产能过剩的测度及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-18 05:54

本文选题：产能过剩 + 产能利用率　；参考：《山东大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：20世纪90年代以来,中国制造业产能过剩问题日益突出,逐渐成为国内学者和政府有关部门关注的焦点。产能过剩范围也从最初的消费品生产行业扩大到传统制造业行业,近年来甚至连光伏、多晶硅等高新技术产业也出现了大规模产能过剩。为了治理产能过剩,政府先后出台了一系列政策措施,然而却成效甚微,甚至出现了“越治理越严重”的现象。产能过剩已经成为困扰中国经济发展的突出问题,尤其是在推进供给侧改革的大背景下,亟需学术界强化对产能过剩及其形成机制的研究,明确我国制造业产能过剩的现实情况和影响因素,并提出相应的治理建议。学术界一般采用产能利用率衡量产能过剩状况,测度产能利用率的主要方法包括峰值法、生产函数法、数据包络分析法和成本函数法等几种。在比较分析不同产能利用率测度方法优缺点的基础上,本文选用数据包络分析(DEA)方法对我国2000-2013年的产能利用率进行了测算分析。分析结果表明,中国制造业中设备利用率低的行业主要集中在重工业领域；中国制造业总体的设备利用率呈现不断下降的趋势；中国制造业总体的产能利用率则经历了先缓慢上升后快速下降的变化路径。根据现有的产能过剩理论以及产能过剩形成机制方面的研究,中国制造业产能过剩的影响因素可以归纳为四类,具体包括宏观经济环境、政府干预力度、行业自身属性和竞争的激烈程度。在对中国制造业产能过剩的上述影响因素进行理论分析基础上,本文采用固定效应面板模型和固定效应面板模型广义矩估计方法(GMM)对产能过剩的四类影响因素进行了实证检验。实证结果表明：首先,技术效率和产能利用率的影响因素和所受影响方式大致相同；其次,国际经济环境和市场竞争的激烈程度会对产能利用水平产生正向的促进作用；再次,国内经济环境、政府干预力度会对行业产能利用水平造成负向的抑制作用；最后,行业自身属性中的固定资产比重、国有资产比重和出口比重均与该行业的产能利用水平存在显著的负相关关系。在总结全文的基础上,本文提出了治理产能过剩的政策建议：(1)加快制造业转型升级；(2)减少政府对制造业的干预；(3)调整市场结构,促进市场竞争；(4)加大环保力度,对企业征收环境保护税；(5)健全生产要素市场体系,充分发挥市场的决定性作用；(6)尽快完善统计体系,建立中国制造业各行业产能利用率的统计监测发布制度；
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, the problem of overcapacity in China's manufacturing industry has become increasingly prominent, which has gradually become the focus of domestic scholars and government departments. The scope of overcapacity has also expanded from the original consumer goods production industry to the traditional manufacturing industry. In recent years, even the high and new technology industries such as photovoltaic and polycrystalline silicon have also appeared large-scale production capacity. In order to control overcapacity, the government has introduced a series of policies and measures, but there is little effect, even the phenomenon of "more serious governance". Overcapacity has become a prominent problem that plagued China's economic development, especially in the background of promoting the supply side reform. The study of its formation mechanism makes clear the reality and influencing factors of the overcapacity in China's manufacturing industry, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures. The academic circle generally uses the productivity utilization ratio to measure the excess capacity, and the main methods to measure the productivity utilization include the peak method, the production function method, the data envelopment analysis method and the cost function method. On the basis of comparison and analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of different productivity utilization measurement methods, this paper uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) method to calculate and analyze the productivity utilization ratio of China for 2000-2013 years. The results show that the major industries in China's manufacturing industry with low equipment utilization rate are in the field of heavy industry, and the overall equipment of China's manufacturing industry. The overall productivity utilization of China's manufacturing industry has experienced a slow and rapid decline. According to the existing theory of overcapacity and the mechanism of overcapacity formation, the influence factors of China's manufacturing overcapacity can be summed up into four categories, including the macro level. On the basis of the theoretical analysis of the above factors of overcapacity in China's manufacturing industry, the fixed effect panel model and the fixed effect panel model generalized moment estimation method (GMM) are used to make an empirical study on the four factors of overcapacity. The empirical results show that: first, the factors affecting the technical efficiency and the productivity utilization ratio are roughly the same. Secondly, the intensity of the international economic environment and the market competition will have a positive effect on the utilization level of production capacity; thirdly, the government intervention will make use of the capacity of the industry in the domestic economic environment. In the end, the proportion of fixed assets in the industry's own property, the proportion of state-owned assets and the proportion of exports all have a significant negative correlation with the capacity utilization level of the industry. On the basis of the full text, this paper puts forward the policy suggestions to control overcapacity: (1) accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry; (2) reduce the production capacity. Less government intervention in the manufacturing industry; (3) adjust the market structure and promote market competition; (4) strengthen environmental protection, levy environmental protection tax on enterprises; (5) perfect the market system of production factors and give full play to the decisive role of the market; (6) improve the statistical system and establish the statistical monitoring and release of the productivity utilization rate of China's manufacturing industries as soon as possible. System;
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F424

【相似文献】