实物期权还是赢者诅咒？

发布时间：2018-05-18 09:58

本文选题：赢者诅咒 + 实物期权　；参考：《河南工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在当前经济全球化的潮流下,跨国并购已经成为国际资本流动的一种主要形式,也是现代企业通往国际化道路的重要形式。各国企业面临着更为广阔的市场空间和巨大的市场潜力,与此同时,企业面临全球范围内的激烈竞争,原有的市场格局被影响,各国企业不得不加快扩大企业规模、抢占市场份额以增强企业竞争力,这催生了并购行为。随着经济全球化进程的加快和我国企业规模的不断壮大,越来越多的中国企业开始把跨国并购作为对外直接投资、开拓国际市场的新策略,然而,即便从全球范围来看,跨国并购的成功率也并不高。在此背景下,本研究基于实物期权和赢者诅咒理论,以案例研究作为研究方法,来对联想集团并购摩托罗拉移动的案例展开探究,试图得出并购方公司价值的形成机制与影响因素。本研究首先提取重要变量,提出相关命题。财务绩效和战略绩效共同影响并购绩效,并购资产价值不确定性和管理者过度自信也与之有关。并购中双方期权价值影响着结局,上市公司的高管私有收益可能影响并购决定,以上变量对并购方公司价值产生影响。接着结合案例对这些命题进行解读,从营业额和税前利润了解联想的财务绩效,构建战略绩效评价体系度量联想战略绩效,依据信息不对称和道德风险评价被并购公司摩托罗拉资产价值的不确定性,从管理者以往成功经验与领导者的雄心分析管理者过度自信程度,以高管持股比例及管理层影响力探究高管私有收益,通过企业发展所处成长时期及其资产的盈利性及获现性度量资产质量与期权价值。以上分析将解释联想并购后的公司价值,最后基于本文的理论分析框架和案例研究结果对跨国并购后公司价值的增长提出了一些建议。本文的分析表明:联想集团并购摩托罗拉后的公司价值降低了,在这项投资中遭遇了赢者诅咒。跨国并购发生后并购方的绩效受多方因素影响,财务绩效可以反映企业短期内的表现,长期发展潜能则更多地体现在企业的战略绩效上,此外资产价值的不确定性及管理者过度自信的程度与并购绩效负相关。以期权视角看,一个有着增长期权价值的公司并购一个有着清算期权价值的公司,并购后公司价值的增长是不确定的,而公司高层管理者则可能为了私有收益而促使并购发生。
[Abstract]:In the current trend of economic globalization, cross-border mergers and acquisitions have become a major form of international capital flow, and also an important form of modern enterprises leading to internationalization. The enterprises of all countries are faced with broader market space and huge market potential. At the same time, the enterprises face fierce competition in the global scope, and the original market pattern is affected, so the enterprises of all countries have to speed up the expansion of the scale of enterprises. Preemption of market share to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises, which gave birth to mergers and acquisitions. With the acceleration of the process of economic globalization and the growing scale of Chinese enterprises, more and more Chinese enterprises begin to take transnational mergers and acquisitions as a new strategy for foreign direct investment and to open up international markets. However, even from a global perspective, The success rate of cross-border M & A is not high. In this context, based on real options and winner-curse theory, this study takes the case study as a research method to explore the acquisition of Motorola Mobility by Lenovo Group. This paper tries to find out the formation mechanism and influencing factors of M & A company value. In this study, important variables are extracted and related propositions are put forward. Both financial performance and strategic performance affect M & A performance, and the uncertainty of M & A asset value and manager overconfidence are also related to it. In M & A, the value of both options affects the outcome, the private income of the executives of listed companies may affect the decision of M & A, and the above variables have an impact on the value of the M & A company. Then, the thesis interprets these propositions by case study, then understands Lenovo's financial performance from turnover and pre-tax profit, and constructs a strategic performance evaluation system to measure Lenovo's strategic performance. Based on the information asymmetry and the uncertainty of the value of Motorola assets of acquired companies, the degree of overconfidence of managers is analyzed from the previous successful experiences of managers and the ambition of leaders. This paper explores the private income of senior executives by using the proportion of executive stock ownership and the influence of management, and measures the quality of assets and the value of options through the growth period of enterprises and the profitability and realizability of their assets. The above analysis will explain the company value after the merger and acquisition of Lenovo. Finally, based on the theoretical framework of this paper and the results of the case study, some suggestions on the growth of corporate value after cross-border M & A are put forward. The analysis shows that the value of Lenovo's acquisition of Motorola has been reduced, and the winner's curse has been encountered in this investment. The performance of M & A parties is influenced by many factors. The financial performance can reflect the short-term performance of the enterprise, and the long-term development potential is more reflected in the strategic performance of the enterprise. In addition, the uncertainty of asset value and the degree of manager overconfidence are negatively correlated with M & A performance. From the perspective of options, a company with the value of growth option M & A a company with liquidation option value, the increase of corporate value is uncertain, and the top management of the company may promote M & A for the sake of private income.
【学位授予单位】：河南工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F271;F426.6

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