货币政策与房地产价格联系研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 15:17

本文选题：房地产价格 + 货币政策　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1998年住房分配体制改革以来，中国城镇居民的住房供给体系从实物分配制走向货币化分配，标志着中国的房地产行业开始朝着市场化的方向迈进。在住房分配体制转变的同时，中国的城市化进程也在不断加速，大批的农村人口向城市转移，，另外居民收入提高，改善性需求也在不断增长，这两类历史趋势构成了房地产刚性需求增长的巨大动力，同时也促进了中国房地产市场的发展，房地产行业已经在整个国民经济中扮演着不可或缺的重要角色，从微观角度来说，住房已经成为最重要的居民财富。因此房地产价格的波动已经不单纯的是一个社会问题，更是一个政治问题，房地产市场的稳定不仅关系到整个经济系统的稳定，更关系整个社会的安定和谐。然而另一方面，持续的房地产市场价格单向拉升也催生了大量的投资性需求和投机性需求，房地产作为资产的属性越来越突出。那么这种资产（房地产）价格与货币政策之间是否存在联系，即房地产价格的波动是否在一定程度上影响货币的供求，货币政策是否在一定程度上左右房地产市场价格的波动，如果存在，货币政策如何兼顾房地产价格波动对货币政策的影响，本文主要就这些问题展开讨论。中国的房地产行业与银行信贷存在着千丝万缕的联系，房地产价格的变化将对货币需求和货币供给产生直接的影响，我们从内生货币理论出发，探讨了房地产价格对货币供求的影响。并探讨了这种理论的前提条件——即房地产市场是否需要大量的银行信贷；与房产相关的银行信贷在整个银行信贷中是否居于重要的地位，即房地产相关信贷占整个信贷规模是否足够显著。在此基础上我们对我们的理论分析进行了格朗杰因果检验以支持我们前面的论述。随后，我们继续分析了货币政策对房地产价格的影响，讨论了货币政策对房地产供求的影响路径，而货币政策对房价的影响主要由两种途径：一是货币供应总量政策，在中国的体现主要是信贷政策对房地产价格的影响；另一个是利率政策对房地产价格的影响。在分析信贷政策对于房地产价格的影响时，主要是从信贷政策对于商业银行、消费者、企业等市场参与者的决策影响，进而波及房地产的供求，最终使得信贷政策的变化体现在房地产价格的变化上。在分析利率政策对于房地产价格的影响时，区分了广义利率传导机制和狭义利率传导机制，狭义利率传导机制又将其分为封闭经济和开发经济两种情况，广义利率机制主要分析了财富效应和托宾q效应的传导机制。最后总结，信贷政策和利率政策都能对我国的房地产市场进行有效的影响，但信贷政策影响效果更为明显。我们还对美国次贷危机和日本“失去的十年”房地产价格和货币政策之间的联系进行了回顾和分析，并从这些国际经验中得出自己的结论。最后，根据以上的分析，我们提出了在货币政策框架中加入房地产价格因素，并对于货币政策的改善提出了一些自己的建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing distribution system in 1998, the housing supply system of urban residents to China from physical distribution system of monetary distribution, marking the China of the real estate industry began to move in the direction of the market. In the transformation of the housing distribution system at the same time, the city China process is speeding up, a large number of rural population to the city also transfer, raise incomes, improve the increase in demand, the two kinds of historical trends pose a great power of the real estate rigid demand growth, but also to promote the development of China real estate market, the real estate industry has been in the national economy plays an important role, from the microscopic point of view. The housing has become the most important wealth. So the fluctuations of real estate price has not only is a social problem, but also a political issue, the real estate market Stability is not only related to the stability of the whole economic system, but also to the stability and harmony of the whole society.
On the other hand, the real estate market prices continued to move up the one-way also spawned a large number of investment demand and speculative demand, real estate property assets as more and more outstanding. So this kind of assets (real estate) there is a connection between price and monetary policy, the real estate price fluctuations will affect the demand for and supply of money in extent, whether the monetary policy is about the real estate market prices to a certain extent, the fluctuation of monetary policy if there is, how to balance the effect of real estate price fluctuation on monetary policy, in this paper, these problems are discussed.
China of the real estate industry and bank credit are inextricably linked, the changes in real estate prices will have a direct impact on the money demand and supply, we from the endogenous money theory, discusses the impact of real estate prices on money supply and demand. And discusses whether the needs of a large number of bank credit conditions this kind of theory the real estate market; and real estate related bank credit occupies an important position in the whole bank credit, the credit related real estate accounted for the entire credit scale is significant enough. Based on our theoretical analysis of Gelangjie causality test to support our previous discussion. Then, we continue to analyze the the impact of monetary policy on real estate prices, discussed the path of monetary policy on the real estate supply and demand, and the impact of monetary policy on house prices mainly by Two ways: one is the total money supply policy, reflected in the China is mainly the impact of the credit policy on the real estate price; another is the effect of interest rate policy on real estate prices. In the analysis of the credit policy for the real estate prices, mainly from the consumer credit policy for commercial banks, and decision making influence of enterprises and other market participants, then affects the supply and demand of real estate, eventually making changes in credit policy reflected in the changes in real estate prices. In the analysis of interest rate policy on the impact of real estate prices, the distinction between the generalized transmission mechanism of interest rate and narrow interest rate conduction mechanism, narrow the interest rate transmission mechanism can be divided into closed economy the development of economy and the two case, the generalized interest rate mechanism mainly analyzes the transmission mechanism of the wealth effect and the Tobin q effect. Finally, the credit policy and interest rate policy to China's real The real estate market effectively, but the effect is more obvious. The credit policy of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis between us and Japan "lost ten years" real estate prices and monetary policy relation were reviewed and analyzed, and from these international experiences to draw their own conclusions. Finally, according to the above analysis. We propose to join the real estate price factors in the framework of monetary policy, and monetary policy for the improvement of puts forward some suggestions.

【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F299.23

【参考文献】