人民币汇率波动对中国国际收支的影响

发布时间：2018-07-04 10:58

本文选题：人民币汇率 + 国际收支　；参考：《河北经贸大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：根据传统的国际收支理论，一国的汇率波动会影响它的国际收支状况，，本币升值会使该国出口产品的相对价格上升，出口产品在国际市场的竞争力减弱，进口产品的相对价格下降，从而使出口减少、进口增加，经常项目出现逆差。2005年7月我国进行了人民币汇率形成机制改革，人民币开始了缓慢的升值过程，在人民币持续升值的七年中，中国国际收支中经常项目、资本与金融项目持续出现顺差局面。汇率的调整能否改善国际收支平衡或者在多大程度上能够改善国际收支平衡目前并没有统一的观点，在此背景下本文通过建立计量经济模型，采用实证分析方法分析人民币汇率波动对中国国际收支中经常项目和资本金融项目的影响，研究人民币汇率波动在调节国际收支中的作用，并根据研究结果分析造成这一局面的原因，最后提出了对策建议。在本文的写作过程中，理论分析阶段首先对国内外的研究现状进行梳理，对汇率影响国际收支的相关理论进行总结，并指出了各种理论的优点和不足。实证分析阶段，本文分别建立了人民币汇率对经常项目下贸易收支影响的方程，包括人民币汇率对出口影响的方程、人民币汇率对进口影响的方程以及人民币汇率对贸易差额影响的方程，人民币汇率对外商直接投资影响的方程，在实证分析时采用协整分析方法和向量误差修正模型分别研究各变量之间的长期关系以及短期动态关系。实证结果显示当前人民币汇率波动不是影响中国国际收支的最主要因素，通过调整人民币汇率改善中国国际收支状况难以达到预期的效果。调整人民币汇率波动区间有可能导致输入型通货膨胀，调整产业结构，转变经济增长方式，是当前的重点。
[Abstract]:According to the traditional balance-of-payments theory, a country's exchange rate fluctuations will affect its international balance of payments. The appreciation of the local currency will increase the relative price of the country's export products and weaken the competitiveness of the export products in the international market. The relative prices of imported products have fallen, thus reducing exports, increasing imports, and running a deficit in the current account. In July 2005, China carried out the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and the RMB began a slow process of appreciation. Over the past seven years, China's current account, capital and financial balance of payments have continued to run surpluses. There is no unified view on whether the adjustment of exchange rate can improve the balance of payments or to what extent it can improve the balance of payments. In this context, this paper establishes an econometric model. This paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the current account and capital financial account in China's balance of payments, and studies the role of RMB exchange rate fluctuation in regulating the balance of payments. According to the research results, the causes of this situation are analyzed, and the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. In the writing process of this paper, the theoretical analysis stage firstly combs the domestic and foreign research status quo, summarizes the relevant theories of the exchange rate affecting the balance of payments, and points out the advantages and disadvantages of various theories. In the stage of empirical analysis, this paper establishes the equation of the impact of RMB exchange rate on current account trade balance, including the impact of RMB exchange rate on export. The equation of the influence of RMB exchange rate on imports, the equation of the influence of RMB exchange rate on trade balance, the equation of the influence of RMB exchange rate on foreign direct investment, In the empirical analysis, cointegration analysis method and vector error correction model are used to study the long-term and short-term dynamic relationships between variables respectively. The empirical results show that the current fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is not the most important factor affecting China's balance of payments, and it is difficult to achieve the expected effect by adjusting the RMB exchange rate to improve China's balance of payments. Adjusting the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate may lead to imported inflation, adjust industrial structure and change the mode of economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F224

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