基于现代金融学视角的土地定价问题研究

发布时间：2018-07-04 20:43

本文选题：土地定价 + 土地所有权　；参考：《西南财经大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：“劳动是财富之父,土地是财富之母”。土地是人类社会最原始的生活资料来源；土地是人类社会最原始的生产资料来源；土地为人类社会各行各业的建立与发展提供场所与基地；土地为人类一切劳动产品提供物质基础；土地是国民经济的基础性产业-农业不可替代的生产资料。由于中国特殊的历史传统和国情,土地是中国社会稳定、民族自强自立的基础。土地制度是人类社会最基础、最根本性的制度。市场是解决经济问题的最佳工具,利用土地市场可以优化资源的配置、提高资源的使用效率。由于中国城市和农村不同土地制度的影响,我国土地市场的发展存在着体制性障碍。研究土地定价问题就变得极端重要。本研究立足国情,基于资产定价理论和实物期权理论、期权博弈理论,探讨利用房价和房租对土地定价的实物期权方法,研究了三种随机性冲击：房价、房租、经济冲击对土地价格的影响；并分析了在当前中国的土地制度下,土地价格形成的博弈过程；探索研究土地经营权流转市场的市场经济规律。力求在制度层面、工程层面、技术层面为中国土地定价机制的健康发展提供有益的探索。试图用现代金融学的理论方法理解中国土地市场的经济行为,为以技术克服制度的缺陷,为中国的现代化过程提供有益的理论探索。为制定合理而灵活的农民土地征用价格标准提供合理的经济学依据。全文包含九个章节,概要如下：第一章,绪论。对整个论文的核心内容进行了概括,内容具体包括论文的选题背景和核心问题的提出；研究的目的、研究意义和创新点；讨论对象的界定和分析方法的介绍；之后,阐述了结构安排。第二章,当代中国土地制度的演进与定价方法述评。本章梳理了土地定价问题的理论脉络、历史脉络和方法脉络。农民的土地应是包括份额所有权、使用权和发展权的有机体系。所有权是产权,土地使用权也是一种产权；回顾当代中国土地制度的演进,获得了中国当代农民土地权利发展的一个清晰的理论坐标；最后评述了现有土地定价方法。边际农业价值法、实物期权定价法、时间空间模型定价法等所谓科学土地定价方法都有其适用范围和局限性。本章为整个研究提供了历史依据和经济理论基础。第三章,实物期权方法源流考。本章系统而深入地评述了实物期权定价方法体系。实物期权定价方法来源于不确定性的处理和应对。不确定性的类型决定与实物期权定价方法的适用范围。实物期权定价方法的经济金融学理论基础是：套利均衡原理,市场完全性和有效性假设,风险中性定价原理。由于实物期权的特性,实物期权发展为一个丰富的类别。在经典实物期权方法的基础上,复合期权理论、期权博弈理论、模糊实物期权以及不完全信息下的实物期权方法正在得到理论界积极地探索和研究。最后,本章介绍了期权与实物期权的数学模型及求解方法。本章为整个研究提供了数理方法论基础。第四章,土地的价值可以分为固定收益部分和期权价值部分。本章视期权价值是房产价格的驱动的单因素美式期权,推导得到了土地价格的解析表达式,并进行了比较静态分析,在不同的市场参数结构下,给出了土地价格和期权价格的值及其比率。第五章,房价、房租与土地价格：一个实物期权分析框架。本章把土地视为受房价和房租两个随机因素影响的实物期权,并得到了基于房屋价格和房租价格表示的土地价格。分析表明,土地价值的增长率和房屋价格的增长率近似成比例；土地价格的波动率一定超过房屋价格的波动率；土地价格的波动率一定超过房租价格的波动率;并给出了土地价格的增长率超过房屋价格增长率的一个解释,讨论了房租价格对地价的影响。第六章,地价可以看成是房屋价格驱动的期权。这种定价较科学的反映了土地的价值,当前的房地产调控对房价有较大的冲击,此时地价会有如何的反映,本章利用带跳扩散过程的美式期权来分析这种冲击对地价的影响。第七章,本章结合数理金融学的最新进展,把几何布朗运动,带便利收益的几何布朗运动、分数维的几何布朗运动、分数维带跳的几何布朗运动作为土地收益流的基本假设,并推导了各种形式下土地择优期权的解析表达式,可以为土地的择优期权定价提供理论指导。农地所包含的的实物期权价值,在使用权无法流通的地方是成长期权的价值；在使用权实现流通的地方是复合期权的价值。农地的发展权定价可理解为成长期权、转换期权、价值成长期权和转换期权结合的复合期权。第八章,二维随机条件下土地租赁经营的投资博弈模型。本章利用实物期权博弈框架,分析了二维随机条件下土地租赁经营的投资博弈模型,考察了二维随机条件下投资密度和投资成本对投资者决策的影响。当投资密度和初始投资成本比率不对称时,都会对各投资阈值产生影响；较大的投资密度和投资成本比率都能提高投资阈值,影响投资者的投资决策；交叉占优时两投资者都有机会成为领先投资者；相对于投资成本比率的影响,租赁经营密度对投资者的投资阈值影响更大。第九章,总结与展望。本章首先结合相关的理论基础、研究成果及实践经验对本文研究结论进行系统的解释和探讨,以全面认识农民的土地的份额所有权、使用权和发展权对土地定价的影响机理,在此基础上,总结本文的理论贡献和实践启示：结合中国国情,针对土地的定价问题、土地市场的建立、农民权益保护提出了相关的政策建议。最后,讨论了研究局限和后续研究的方向。本文的主要研究结论如下：第一,本文基于全国平均的数据,证实了土地开发的价值即房产的价值是地价构成的最主要部分。资本化地租方法不应被用于中国未来的土地转让活动。应用期权方法,有效地反应市场的灵活性价值,完善土地定价的科学方法,确保农民在土地征用过程中获得合理的收益。第二,在中国这个二元化的土地市场上,政府的垄断和规制加上土地资源天然的稀缺性加重了社会福利的双重损失,限制了土地的发展权价值实现。为了提高土地资源配置效率,应利用市场这一是解决经济问题的最佳工具,逐步建立统一的土地市场,实现土地资源的最优配置,提高国民福利。第三,土地价格是土地市场的核心,但是这个核心依赖于具体的制度环境。当下的中国产生了浮躁的脱离国情的极端主张,比如主张土地的完全私有化,和土地市场的完全自由化。由于中国特有的历史传统和土地资源的独有特质,坚持当下的土地制度是必要的。本研究使我们对土地定价有了更系统、更深入的理解。在现有研究的基础上,本论文的创新点主要体现在：第一,本研究建立了土地价格、房价、房租构成的全新的实物期权分析框架。本文基于农户对土地的份额所有权、使用权和发展权,基于无套利方法视土地价格为一个期权,进行了期权定价分析。分析利用了宏观整体的土地价格指数和住房价格指数,分析认为农户对土地的发展权应该得到价值体现,全国平均的数据证实了土地开发的价值即房产的价值是地价构成的最主要部分。资本化地租方法不应被用于中国未来的土地转让活动。中国的土地价格具有鲜明的期权特征,应用实物期权方法进行土地定价是科学、合理的。第二,本研究通过结合数理金融学的最新进展,把几何布朗运动,带便利收益的几何布朗运动、分数维的几何布朗运动、分数维带跳的几何布朗运动作为土地收益流的基本假设,并推导了各种形式下土地择优期权的解析表达式,可以为土地的择优期权定价提供理论指导。第三,本研究利用期权博弈工具,分析农业专业组织的竞争规律,建立了二维随机条件下土地租赁经营的投资博弈模型。研究了二维随机条件下投资密度和投资成本对投资者决策的影响。本研究努力为实现征地补偿合理化、同地同价奠定理论基础,以扭转我国征地补偿标准偏低的现象；本研究为构建立以产权制度为依托,以实际产权交易关系为依据,建立中国城市和农村统一的地价体系,提供理论支持。本文亦为研究土地经营权流转市场的市场经济规律提供有益的探索。
[Abstract]:" Labor is the father of wealth , land is the mother of wealth " . Land is the most primitive source of life of human society ;
Land is the most primitive source of production data in human society ;
The land is a place and base for the establishment and development of all walks of life in the human society ;
The land provides the material basis for all human labor products ;
Land is the basic industry of national economy - the non - replaceable productive material of agriculture . Because of the special historical tradition and national conditions of China , the land is the foundation of Chinese social stability and national self - reliance . Land system is the most basic and fundamental system of human society . The market is the best tool for solving economic problems . The land market can optimize the allocation of resources and improve the use efficiency of resources . Because of the influence of different land systems in Chinese cities and rural areas , the development of land market in China has institutional obstacles .

Based on the theory of asset pricing theory and real option theory and option game theory , this paper discusses three random shocks : house price , rent and economic impact on land price .
The game process of land price formation in China ' s land system is analyzed .
The paper explores the market economy law of land management right transfer market . It aims at providing beneficial exploration for the healthy development of China ' s land pricing mechanism at the system level , engineering level and technical level .

The first chapter , introduction , summarizes the core contents of the whole thesis , including the background of the thesis and the proposal of the core problem .
Research purposes , research significance and innovation points ;
The definition of the object and the introduction of the analytical method are discussed .
After that , the structure arrangement is explained .

Chapter 2 is a review of the evolution and pricing methods of land pricing in China . This chapter combs the theory of land pricing , historical context and method . The land of the peasants should be the organic system including the ownership , the right to use and the right to development . The ownership is the property right and the right to use the land is also a property right ;
This paper reviews the evolution of contemporary Chinese land system , and obtains a clear theoretical coordinate of the development of land rights in China ' s contemporary peasants ;
At last , the author comments on the existing methods of land pricing , such as marginal agricultural value method , real option pricing method , time space model pricing method and so - called scientific land pricing methods . This chapter provides historical basis and economic theory basis for the whole research .

In chapter 3 , the real option pricing method is introduced in detail . The real option pricing method is derived from the process of uncertainty and the application scope of the real option pricing method . The theory of real options pricing is based on the theory of arbitrage equilibrium , market completeness and validity and risk neutral pricing .

In chapter 4 , the value of the land can be divided into fixed income part and option value part . In this chapter , the analytic expression of the land price is deduced according to the single factor American option which is the driving of the real estate price , and the comparative static analysis is carried out , and the value and the ratio of the land price and the option price are given under different market parameters structure .

Chapter five , house price , rent and land price : a real option analysis framework . This chapter regards land as real option affected by two random factors of house price and rent , and obtains land price based on house price and rent price . The analysis shows that the growth rate of land value and the growth rate of house price are approximately proportional ;
The fluctuation rate of land price must exceed the fluctuation rate of house price ;
The fluctuation rate of land price must exceed the fluctuation rate of the rent price , and gives an explanation of the growth rate of land price above house price growth rate , and discusses the effect of rent price on land price .

Chapter 6 , the land price can be regarded as an option driven by the price of the house . This pricing is more scientific and reflects the value of the land , and the current real estate regulation has a great impact on the house price . At this time , how the land price will be reflected , this chapter uses the American option with the jump diffusion process to analyze the impact on the land price .

Chapter 7 , combining the latest development of mathematical finance , geometric Brownian motion , geometric Brownian motion with convenient return , geometric Brownian motion of fractal dimension , geometric Brownian motion of fractal dimension and fractional dimension are used as the basic assumption of land income flow , and the analytic expression of optimal options in various forms can be provided .
The development right pricing of agricultural land can be understood as the combination of growth options , conversion options , value growth options and conversion options .

Chapter 8 deals with the investment game model of land lease under two - dimensional random condition . This chapter analyzes the investment game model of land lease under two - dimensional random condition by using the real option game framework , and investigates the influence of investment density and investment cost on investor ' s decision - making under two - dimensional random condition .
The larger investment density and investment cost ratio can increase the investment threshold and influence the investor ' s investment decision - making ;
Both investors have the opportunity to become a leading investor when cross - dominated .
With respect to the impact of the investment cost ratio , the lease operating density has a greater impact on the investor ' s investment threshold .

Chapter 9 , summarizes and prospects . Firstly , this chapter explains and discusses the conclusion of this paper based on the relevant theoretical foundation , research results and practical experience .

The main conclusions of this paper are as follows :

First , based on the national average data , this paper confirms the value of land development , that is , the value of the real estate is the most important part of the land price . The capitalization land rent method should not be used in the future land transfer activities in China .

Second , in the two - way land market in China , the government ' s monopoly and regulation , combined with the natural scarcity of land resources , aggravated the dual loss of social welfare and restricted the realization of the value of the land ' s right to development . In order to improve the efficiency of land resource allocation , the market should be used as the best tool to solve the economic problems , and the unified land market should be gradually established , so as to realize the optimal allocation of land resources and improve the national welfare .

Third , the land price is the core of the land market , but the core depends on the specific institutional environment . The present China has generated an impetuosity of the extreme claims of the country , such as the complete privatization of the land and the complete liberalization of the land market . Because of the unique characteristics of China ' s unique historical traditions and land resources , it is necessary to adhere to the present land system .

This study gives us a more systematic and deeper understanding of land pricing . Based on the existing research , the innovation points of this paper are mainly reflected in :

First , this study establishes a new kind of real option analysis framework for land price , house price and rent . Based on the farmer ' s share ownership , right to use and right to development , this paper makes an option pricing analysis based on the land price index and housing price index of the farmer . The analysis uses the macro - integral land price index and the housing price index , and analyses that the value of the land development is the most important part of the land price . The capitalization land rent method should not be used in the future land transfer activity in China . The land price of China has a sharp option characteristic , and the land pricing is scientific and reasonable .

Secondly , this study combines geometric Brownian motion , geometric Brownian motion with convenient return , geometric Brownian motion of fractal dimension , geometric Brownian motion of fractal dimension and geometric Brownian motion of fractional dimension as the basic assumption of land revenue stream .

Thirdly , this research uses the option game tool to analyze the competition law of the agricultural professional organization , establishes the investment game model of the land lease management under the two - dimensional random condition , and studies the influence of the investment density and the investment cost on the investor ' s decision - making under the two - dimensional random condition .

The purpose of this research is to lay a theoretical foundation for the rationalization of land requisition compensation and to lay a theoretical foundation for the co - price with the ground , so as to reverse the low compensation standard in China ;
Based on the property rights system , this research is based on the relationship between real property rights and property rights , establishes the unified land price system of Chinese cities and rural areas , and provides theoretical support . This paper also provides useful exploration for the study of the market economy law of land management right transfer market .
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F301.4;F830

【参考文献】